Wind Energy in the Southeast: Offshore and Land-Based Potential

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1 Georgia Tech Clean Energy Speaker Series Southeast Wind Energy: Is An Answer Blowing in the Wind? September 29, 2010 Wind Energy in the Southeast: Offshore and Land-Based Potential Presented by Amir Mikhail, Ph.D. Senior Vice President of Engineering Clipper Windpower, Inc.

2 Agenda 1 2 Offshore Wind Resource Project Installations Economics / Cost of Energy Challenges Land-Based 2

3 Offshore Wind Resource

4 Europe Offshore wind resource: Higher Winds Less Variable 4 Source: Riso National Laboratory

5 North Sea Source: Garrad Hassan 5

6 US / Southeast Offshore wind resource area and potential by wind speed interval and state within 50 nm of shore. Source: NREL June 2010 Source: NREL June

7 US / Southeast US offshore wind resource at 90 m above the surface. Total potential: 4 x Installed electric capacity in US. Source: NREL June

8 US / Southeast US bathymetry distribution. East Coast more shallow than West Coast. Source: NREL June

9 US / Southeast Distance from US shoreline (nm). State boundary 3 nm except for Texas and Gulf coast of Florida (9 nm). 9 Source: NREL June 2010

10 US / Georgia Georgia 90 m (hub height at MSL) offshore wind speed. 10 Source: NREL June 2010

11 Project Installations

12 Technical Issues Offshore Technology North-West Europe Offshore Plants: 2,110 MW Installed Capacity of Offshore Wind Power for Total World Source: BTM Consult ApS March Red = (built Mm wind turbines), Purple = (built small wind turbines) Blue=(under construction), Grey=(planned) Source: September 2008

13 Offshore Wind Growth Forecast UK offshore Round I and II drive current development; Round III projects pick up in 2013 forward in nine zones totaling 32 GW Source: BTM Consultancy Report Germany permits 25 sites (22 North Sea, 3 in Baltic) Transpower installs HVDC substation and transmission backed by utilities at cost of 500M. Net capacity result by 2020: UK = 40GW Germany = 25GW Source: BTM Consultancy Report Source: EWEA 2010 Report 13

14 Economics / Cost of Energy

15 Technical Issues Offshore Technology Typical Offshore Installations: Danish and UK offshore demonstration and commercial installations. Costs estimated at $1.5 - $4.5m/MW installed. Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15

16 Cost of Energy A generic method for evaluating offshore wind in comparison to other power generation methods is given by: 16

17 Cost of Energy Offshore Wind (Worldwide market, IEC Class I) Average 181 $/MWh WIND FARM (All Europe) YEAR SIZE (MW) Thanet Walney Island Ormonde Sheringham Shoal Borkum Riffgrund West Lincs Borkum West II Meerwind Innogy Nordsee Greater Gabbard Nordegrunde Kriegers Flak Gwynt y Mor London Array Global Tech CAPEX data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, August LCOE20 calculated internally using 41% capacity factor and $26/MWh operations cost (K2). 17

18 Technical Issues Offshore Technology Britannia 10 MW and Liberty 2.5 MW Size Comparison: 18

19 Technical Issues Offshore Technology Britannia 10 MW: Designed for offshore. Advanced:» Rotor blade airfoils» Gearbox concepts» Controls» Electrical system concepts New economics of scale for offshore applications. 19

20 Challenges

21 Technical Issues Offshore Technology Installation: 21

22 Technical Challenges Offshore Technology Challenges: Offshore environment:» Wind speed/energy potential» Turbulence and inflow monitoring Wave loading:» Wave spectrum Shallow water Deep water» Extreme waves» Wind-wave correlation Turbine dynamics code enhancement & validation:» Fatigue/linear waves and turbulent wind» Stability and controls» Extreme events/non-linear waves Foundations:» Shallow water monopole, gravity, suction» Deep water anchors Grid integration and transmission to shore 22 Larger RNA to compensate for high cost support structure Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Middelgrunden Wind Farm, Denmark

23 Land-Based

24 Land-Based US wind resource with emphasis on the Southeast. State: GA SC NC Range:. 1 1 GW 1 5 GW 5 10 GW Total Capabilities By GW Total capacity = 16 x electrical consumption within the US. Source: PNAS July 2009 Source: US Department of Energy, July

25 Cost of Energy Onshore Technologies Projected Costs of Generating Energy, 2010 Edition International Energy Agency 25

26 Thank You

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