Electricity sector overview

Transcription

1 Electricity sector overview Electricity market structure Snapshot of electricity sector Growth in capacity and production Growth in consumption Growth in transmission line and transformer capacity Institutional and regulatory structure Key players in transmission PPP policy and regulations Evolution of legal and regulatory framework ANEEL s new transmission auction rules Recent experience in PPP in transmission Overview Project award analysis by line length Project award analysis by investment Expected growth in the electricity sector Expected growth in generation capacity and demand Expected growth in transmission network PPP opportunities in transmission Project pipeline Expected investment List of projects to be auctioned Contacts of key agencies and authorities 1

2 Electricity sector overview s Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN), or the National Interconnected System, comprises four regional subsystems: South, Southeast Midwest, North and Northeast. Together, these cover about 98% of the country s electricity market. The remaining 2% is served by isolated systems located mainly in the states of Amazonas, Roraima, Acre, Amapá, Rondônia and part of Pará. In, state-owned companies control most of the generation and transmission assets, while the distribution segment is largely in the hands of private companies. The Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. (Eletrobrás), which is 54.4% owned by the federal government, dominates the electricity sector. XX XX XX X. X.. XX. X. Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME) is responsible for policy setting and Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) develops longterm plans for the power sector in. 2

3 Electricity market structure Sector reforms initiated in mid-90s with unbundling and privatisation of state-owned assets. Privatisation drive stalled after the 2001 energy crisis. Majority of generation and transmission assets continue to be state-owned. Eletrobras dominates the electricity sector, accounting for 33% of installed capacity and 47% of high voltage transmission network. Distribution segment is largely in private hands. About 73% of electricity sales are by private distribution companies. Generation Competitive market X X X X Transmission Natural monopoly X Distribution Competitive pricing for nonregulated customers End-users X 3

4 Snapshot of electricity sector Growth in capacity and production As of 2017, had more than GW of installed capacity, of which was based on hydroelectric power. During , the power generation capacity grew at a CAGR of X%. A major contributor is wind and solar projects, which grew at a CAGR of over the last decade. Generation grew at a CAGR of and reached XX GWh in Table 1: Installed capacity and generation, 2017 Figure 3: Installed electricity capacity by fuel-type, 2017 (%) Installed capacity (MW) Generation (GWh) XX XX Hydro 63.66% Thermal 26.58% Nuclear 1.26% Wind and solar 8.50% Figure 4: Growth in installed capacity, (MW) Figure 4: Growth in electricity generation, (GWh) XX XX XX XX XX XX Note: Generation data for 2017 is based on past CAGR. Source: MME, ; ANEEL; Global Transmission Research E 4

5 Snapshot of electricity sector Growth in consumption During 2017, s consumption reached X GWh. Since 2008, consumption has increased at a CAGR of. Figure 4: Growth in electricity consumption, (GWh) XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX E Note: 2017 data is based on actual figures till November. Source: MME, ; ANEEL 5

6 Snapshot of electricity sector Growth in transmission line and transformer capacity As of 2017, had an estimated transmission network of XX km of line length and XX MVA of transformer capacity at 230 kv to 750 kv AC lines and ±600 kv HVDC line. During , the transmission line network increased at a CAGR of about and substation capacity by. s grid is connected with those of Uruguay, Argentina, Venezuela and Paraguay. Transmission line length and transformer capacity, 2017 Voltage Line length (km) Transformer capacity (MVA) 230 kv AC X X 345 kv AC X X 440 kv AC X X 500 kv AC X X ±600 kv DC X X 750 kv AC X X ±800 kv DC X X Total X X Figure 4: Growth in line length, (km) XX Figure 4: Growth in transformer capacity, (MVA) XX X XX XX XX Source: Ministry ofmines and Energy, ; Global Transmission Research 6

7 Institutional and regulatory structure tica (CNPE) National Council for Energy Policy (CNPE) Advises the Presidency and develops policies trico (CMSE) rio de Minas e Energia (MME) tica (EPE) Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee (CMSE) Advisory board that monitors the safety and efficiency of electricity supply Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) Promotes investment, finances research and implements government policies Energy Research Company (EPE) Long-term planning of the electricity sector trico (ONS) trica (ANEEL) trica (CCEE) National Grid Operator (ONS) Coordinates and controls the generation and transmission of electricity ian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) Regulation and supervision of the ian electric sector including power generation, transmission, distribution, and commerce Electric Energy Trading Chamber (CCEE) Coordination of wholesale electricity market; clearinghouse for settlement of contracts; conducting energy purchase auctions for regulated market 7

8 Key players in transmission Transmission sector is dominated by Eletrobras subsidiaries Chesf, Furnas, Eletronorte and Eletrosul. There are several foreign companies that have won tenders in recent years. State Grid Corporation od China (SGCC) through its ian holding company State Grid ian Holding (SGBH) is emerging as strong contender. It has recently won several tenders, especially in a joint bid with Eletrobras subsidiaries. Estimated share of key players in line length, 2017 (%) Line length of key players, 2017 (km) X X X X X X Eletrosul X X X Copel GT X X Note: The line length is for 230 kv and above transmission lines only. Source: Ministry ofmines and Energy, ; Global Transmission Research 8

9 PPP policy and regulations Evolution of legal and regulatory framework Law Law Law Law Law Law Decree Law Law Law Law Law Concessions Law of 1995 sets X X X Electricity Sector Law of 1995 X X X Law of 1998 X X X XXxx XX New model for the electricity sector through the passage of Law and Law , followed by the Decree Creation of Energy Research Company (EPE) to focus on research and planning X Law of 2013 sets out additional rules for concessions; reduces sector charges; and promotes lower tariffs XX Eletrobras recently announced that it will release the rules for sale of six regional distribution power companies (the concessions of which were not renewed in July 2016 as they were underperforming and heavily in debt) 9

10 PPP policy and regulations ANEEL s new transmission auction rules ANEEL s latest rules make transmission auctions more attractive for the prospective bidders Language of notice X Rebidding of unsuccessful lots Construction period Guarantees x x Documents Remuneration and returns XXx x Note: The new rules are applicable since First auction with new rules was Tender 005/2016 in March

11 Recent experience in PPP in transmission Overview Overview x X X Xx X X Xx Trends in contracted RAP and average discount offered X X X XX X X XXx Leading concessionaires X X X X XX X X XXx 11

12 Recent experience in PPP in transmission Project award analysis by line length Line length awarded by auction (km) Line length awarded by voltage (km) Line length awarded by company (km) N⁰ 02/2018 X X N⁰ 02/2017 N⁰ 05/2016 kv kv X X X N⁰ 13/2015 Phase 2 N⁰ 13/2015 Phase 1 kv kv X X X Project line length awarded by voltage (km) Voltage N⁰13/2015 Phase 1 N⁰13/2015 Phase 2 N⁰ 05/2016 N⁰ 02/2017 N⁰ 02/2018 Total 230 kv 345 kv 440 kv 500 kv Total Source: Global Transmission Research 12

13 Recent experience in PPP in transmission Project award analysis by investment Investment secured by auction (BRL million) Investment secured by voltage (BRL million) Investment secured by company (BRL million) N⁰ 02/2018 X X N⁰ 02/2017 N⁰ 05/2016 kv kv X X X N⁰ 13/2015 Phase 2 N⁰ 13/2015 Phase 1 kv kv X X X Investment secured through recent awards by voltage (BRL million) Voltage N⁰13/2015 Phase 1 N⁰13/2015 Phase 2 N⁰ 05/2016 N⁰ 02/2017 N⁰ 02/2018 Total 230 kv 345 kv 440 kv 500 kv Total Source: Global Transmission Research 13

14 Expected growth in the electricity sector Expected growth in generation capacity and demand Figure 6: Expected addition to generation capacity (MW) Figure 7: Expected growth in electricity demand (MW average) X 69,271 71,349 73,982 77,277 80,621 83,584 86,474 89,428 92, Note: Data for 2018 includes those projects which were planned for 2017, but were not completed during the year. Source: Plano Decenal de Expansao de Energia 2026, EPE; MME, ; ANEEL Source: Plano Decenal de Expansao de Energia 2026, EPE (reference scenario) As per EPE s Plano Decenal de Expansao de Energia 2026, the average power load in the country is likely to reach 69 GW by This is estimated to increase to XX GW by 2026 at a CAGR of X%, under base case scenario. XX. XX XX XX X. 14

15 Expected growth in the electricity sector Expected growth in transmission network During , about km of line length is expected to be added in the ian network along with more than GVA substation capacity. Of the total line length capacity, is likely to be based on direct current (DC) technology at ±800 kv level and rest on alternating current (AC) technology based. About of line length is likely to be added at 500 kv level, at 230 kv level, at 800 kv level and the remaining at 345 kv and 440 kv levels. Majority of the substation capacity is also likely to be added at 500 kv level. Table 3: Planned transmission network additions, Voltage Transmission line length (km) X X X Figure 11: Planned line length addition by voltage (%) kv kv ±800 kv DC X X X 500 kv X X X 440 kv X X X 345 kv X X X 230 kv X X X Transformer capacity (MVA) X X X 750 kv X X X 500 kv X X X 440 kv X X X 345 kv X X X 230 kv X X X Source: Plano Decenal de Expansao de Energia 2026, EPE; Global Transmission Research kv kv Figure 12: Planned transformer capacity addition by voltage (%) XX kv kv X% kv kv kv kv 15

16 PPP opportunities in transmission Project pipeline Number of projects expected to be awarded by voltage Line length expected to be awarded by voltage (km) X X X X X X X X Line length expected to be awarded by voltage (km) 230 kv X 345 kv X 440 kv X 500/525 kv X Total X Source: ANEEL; Global Transmission Research 16

17 PPP opportunities in transmission Expected investment Investment to be secured by voltage (BRL million) X X X X X X Investment expected to be secured through awards by voltage (BRL million) 230 kv X 345 kv X 440 kv X 500/525 kv X Total X Source: ANEEL; Global Transmission Research 17

18 PPP opportunities in transmission List of projects to be auctioned Key projects to be auctions Project Voltage (kv) Line length (km) Substation capacity (MVA/MVAr) Project cost (BRL million) Tender launch date X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX X XX XX XX Source: ANEEL; Global Transmission Research 18

19 Contacts of key agencies and authorities Name Designation Phone X Superintendent Superintendence of Concessions, Permissions and Authorizations of Transmission and Distribution Key contacts for X X X Deputy Superintendent Superintendence of Concessions, Permissions and Authorizations of Transmission and Address Website SGAN 603 Modules I and J, , Brasilia, Federal District, 19