COMPETITION FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN E&P IN LATIN AMERICA

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1 COMPETITION FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN E&P IN LATIN AMERICA Prof. Edmar de Almeida Energy Economics Group Institute of Economics Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Workshop The Changing Global Energy Landscape: Impacts for Brazil Rio de Janeiro, 12 November 2014

2 CONTENTS Competition for E&P investment in Latin America Evolution of E&P regulatory framework in Latin America Determinants of E&P investments in Brazil Financing challenges for Petrobras Financing challenges for Brazilian independents Conclusions 2

3 Competition for energy investments in Latin America will be increasingly tough wave of Liberalism wave of populism new wave of pragmatism The economic crisis and difficulty to finance NOCs are driving the implementation of market-oriented energy policies in the Region: Mexico energy reform Argentina approves a new hydrocarbon law Bolivia and Venezuela seeks foreign by exploring flexibility in the hydrocarbons fiscal regime. Brazil? 3

4 Numerous E&P bid rounds in Latin America increasing opportunities for foreign investors Mexico: Round zero in 2014 and Round 1 in 2015 Trinidad and Tobago Onshore and Deepwater Round Colombia Round 2014 Suriname 5th Bid Round Ecuador 11th Bid Round Peru: 2014 Offshore Bid Round Argentina: Onshore Licencing Round 2013 Uruguay: Round 3 for 2015 The Results of Brazil 12th Bid Round in 2013 were disappointing, as companies showed little interest. 4

5 Competition for E&P investment in Latin America 5

6 Exploratory activity in L.A. has expanded rapidly, but the regional oil geopolitics is changing rapidly 6

7 Brazil exploratory activity is relatively low and very concentrated in the offshore Evolution of the number of drilling rigs in operation in Brazil and Latin America 7

8 Brazil is the 2 nd largest market for offshore drilling in L.A., but 6 th for onshore drilling Drilling Rigs in Operation in Latin America September 2014 Source: Backer Hughes Rig Count 8

9 Brazil: sharp reduction in exploratory activity in the last 3 years Evolution of the number of Drilling Rigs in Operation in Brazil Source: Backer Hughes Rig Count 9

10 The slowdown in Brazil was the largest in the world in the H1-2014; Argentina is gaining ground 10

11 Evolution of E&P Regulatory Framework in Latin America Mexico Argentina Venezuela 11

12 Mexico s energy reform represents a huge change in the oil and gas landscape in L. America Dec Approval of a Constitutional Amendment ending with Pemex 75-year Monopoly Foreign companies allowed to book reserves Pemex receives a new status: national productive company Flexibility in contracts types: Profit sharing, Production Sharing, Licenses and Services Contracts Round Zero: large acreage to Pemex. The company has 5 years to explore and deliver a development plan or to revert the acreage to the state. These areas can be offered later through new bid rounds. Bid Round one scheduled to 2015

13 Mexico has a huge potential for unconventionals Large geological potential Some plays are extensions of American plays with lots of activity (Eagle Ford e Haynesville). Gas market already integrated with the US. Developed supply chain for onshore and unconventionals 13

14 New moment for Argentina: pragmatism to reduce energy dependence Outside North America, Argentina has the largest unconventional resource base after China Rapid reduction in (conventional) oil and gas production is a drive to implement reforms aimed at attracting new E&P investments New Hydrocarbon Law (2014): Fiscal regime has been unified for all provinces at 12% for royalties and 3% for sale tax (exploratory rights belongs to the provinces) Concession with longer duration with possibility for extensions for unconventional discoveries Lower oil exports tax and currency freedom for projects with investments higher than US$250 million Higher gas prices for new production (Gas Plus Program) YPF signed partnership agreements with majors to explore unconventional

15 Argentina is poised to become the largest shale oil and gas producer in South America High geological potential in mature basins, with pipeline infrastructure in place Presence of majors companies (Shell, Exxon, BP, Total) NOCs (Petrobras) and several independents (Apache, Gran Tierra, EOG, Pluspetrol, Wintershall and others) 140 wells drilled in 2013 YPF plans to drill about 2450 wells for unconventionals until

16 Venezuela: more oil and gas after turmoil? Magna Reserva Project reserves certification repositioned Venezuela as the largest proven reserves in the world (298 billion barrels according to BP Statistics). More pragmatic approach on the way Lower oil prices is a challenge since the country is largely dependence on oil Large debt reduces the space for more Chinese Loan for Oil operations ($50 billions) Private investment in non-associated natural gas has been promoted, e.g. Perla offshore field under development by Repsol and ENI. Exploratory activity stable in the last 5 years. Political landscape in rapid evolution 16

17 Determinants of E&P investments in Brazil 17

18 Brazil has approved new oil and gas laws restricting foreign investment in the Presalt Petrobras as a sole operator in the Presalt Exclusive rights for Petrobras: Onerous Assignment contracts (5 billion barrels +) Production Sharing contracts (~10 billion barrels in Presalt) Petrobras resource portfolio is very large as compared to its investment capacity need to divest? Five years without E&P bidding rounds have deeply affected the industry Strong emphasis on local content 18

19 The potential growth of oil production in Brazil is one of the largest in the world Field development plans approved by ANP indicate a 4.3 MMb/d oil production in 2021 An enormous amount of financial, human and technological resources are necessary to accomplish this expansion Upstream investment increased from US$ 5 bn a year in 2002 to US$ 30 bn in Projected Oil Production (Mbbl/D) based on contracts approved by ANP Onerous Assignment Contracts Concession Contracts Concession contracts (Pre-salt) Concession contracts onshore Source: - ANP 19

20 Petrobras is facing increasingly important financial challenges Rapid increase in net debt from US$ 31 billions in 2010 to US$ 94.6 billions in 2013 The debt level is jeopardizing Petrobras investment grade rating Debt Index for Petrobras (Net debt / EBITDA) Petrobras Investment in US$ billions Source: PETROBRAS 20

21 Petrobras debt is now a concern Evolution of Petrobras Debt About 45% of the debt must be renewed by the end of 2018 Only 20% of the debt is based in domestic currency Source: Petrobras 21

22 The company has lost revenues by selling products below the international market price Average realization prices in Brazil vs. the US Gulf prices Source: PETROBRAS 22

23 Estimated accumulated loss of revenue by Petrobras due to price controls Estimated accumulated revenue losses by Petrobras for selling gasoline, diesel and LPG below the international benchmark prices Source: Own Elaboration 23

24 Brazilian independents control most of onshore exploratory acreage in Brazil Onshore exploration is very important for future natural gas supply As Petrobras focuses in the Presalt, Brazilian independents are expected to take the lead in onshore exploration Onshore and Offshore Exploration Acreage by Type of Company Share in Onshore Exploration Acreage by Type of Company Source: Own elaboration with ANP data Source: Own elaboration with ANP data 24

25 Brazilian independents are taking took the leadership in onshore E&P but financing investments is now a big challenge Most independents are focused on the onshore exploration Few have reached the production phase and the majority depends on the equity market to finance activities OGX and HRT crisis and international financial crisis has created an obstacle to access international equity market Onshore oil and gas monetization is still a big challenge 25

26 Main Take-aways Global investment in E&P tends to decrease as a consequence of weakening oil and gas prices and high costs of several exploratory frontiers Competition for investment in Latin America tends to increase with more pragmatic oil and gas policy by several countries Brazil is losing ground in the competition for E&P investments and is facing important challenges to attract the investment needed to accomplish its production potential It is important to evaluate new strategies to increase Brazilian E&P attractiveness 26

27 Thank you! Edmar de Almeida Energy Economics Group Institute of Economics Federal University of Rio de Janeiro 27

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