ETSAP Regular Workshop IEA, Paris 17 th June

Transcription

1 Energy Systems Models and Macroeconomic Models: Soft Linking Irish TIMES and the IMF GIMF DSGE model To examine energy security James Glynn*, Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir ETSAP Regular Workshop IEA, Paris 17 th June 213

2 Overview Irish Energy System Vulnerability Market Trends & Signals Searching for risk & mitigation potential International Monetary Fund Oil Scarcity, Growth and Global Imbalances Energy Security in Irish-TIMES High Oil and Gas Price scenarios based on IMF scenarios Quantifying costs of Energy (in)security? 2

3 Irish Energy Balance 211 PES 13,869 ktoe 93% Gas & 1% imported Oil product supplied by UK TFC 11,154 ktoe 88% Import Dependence Dominant Pathways Poor Fuel Diversity Poor Supply Diversity 99% Oil Dependant Wind > IRE Gas 3

4 World Oil Production (kb/d) Price futures & strategic planning? Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Fuel Commodity Prices ($/GJ) 9, 88, 86, 84, 82, 8, 78, 76, 74, 72, 7, World Total Oil Supply kb/d kb/d Brent $/GJ WTI $/GJ EU Nat Gas $/GJ US Nat Gas $/GJ Austrailian Coal $/GJ Prod 88.8 mb/d Brent 16.8 $/GJ WTI 15.4 $/GJ EU Gas 11.6 $/GJ US Gas 3.8 $/GJ Coal 2.8 $/GJ 4

5 Crude Oil Imports (ktoe) Irish Crude Oil Supply Origin? % of 212 Irish Crude Oil Imports came from Non- OECD suppliers US Shale Plays North Sea Nigeria Libya Algeria Norway United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark

6 Oil Production (Ktoe) Irish OiI Consumption (ktoe) Gas Production (Ktoe) Irish Gas Consumption (ktoe) North Sea Oil and Gas Supply Decline Oil 18, 16, UK -26.3% 12 14, NO -23.7% 12 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Norway Oil Production Norway Oil Consumption UK Oil Production UK Oil Consumption Ireland Oil imports 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Gas 12 1 UK -13.8% 12 NO +7.6% Norway Gas Production Norway Gas Consumption UK Gas Production UK Gas Consumption Ireland Gas imports 6

7 Supply, Transmission & Storage Oil consumption 131 kbl/d in 213 No pipeline network (Tankers & Road) Whitegate Refinery 75kb/d NORA 88 Days storage (~4% on Island) Gas consumption 14mcm/d 211 (Winter Peak 23mcm/d Jan 21) Moffat/Beattock 31mcm/d max flow Approaching all Island Limits (214/15) Corrib 9.5 mcm/d - 4.2mcm/d 6 yr production profile Kinsale (draw down mcm/d ) Can stores 1% annual demand, (218mcm) Technical 6mcm/d max flow (compressor) Post 214? Shannon LNG (11.3 mcm/d mcm/d) CORRIB WHIDDY IS. 7 SHANNON LNG WHITEGATE KINSALE DUBLIN MOFFAT

8 Irish-TIMES Modelling; IMF Outputs Oil Supply (kb/d) Oil Price (US$/bl) 11, Oil Supply 12 Oil Price 1, 1 9, 8 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, IMF1 Benchmark IMF4 Peak IMF1 Benchmark IMF2 Efficiency IMF3 AyresWarr IMF4 Peak Price History 8

9 Fuel Commodity Prices ($/GJ) Price History Vs IMF Scenario Price Brent $/GJ EU Nat Gas $/GJ Irish Gas Import $/GJ REF (2$/GJ) IMF1 (2$/GJ) IMF4 (2$/GJ) GASIMF1 (2$/GJ) GAS Orig (2$/GJ)

10 Irish Domestic Oil Total Final Consumption (ktoe) Irish-TIMES Oil Final Consumption 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Benchmark constraint Peak constraint Domestic Oil TFC REF Vol -2.% Costs_Bench Costs_Peak 2, 1,

11 Irish-TIMES Benchmark 22 11

12 Irish-TIMES Benchmark +Gas 22 12

13 Irish-TIMES Benchmark +Gas 25 13

14 Million Euro REF BENCH System & Investment Costs BENCH +GAS PEAK REF BENCH BENCH +GAS PEAK REF BENCH BENCH +GAS PEAK REF BENCH BENCH +GAS PEAK REF BENCH BENCH +GAS PEAK 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Annual Total System Cost Investment Costs Transport Investment Residential Investment 14

15 Concluding Thoughts Global conventional oil supply is tight and unconventional Oils setting marginal price The IMF are concerned with the consequent current account imbalances, effect to productivity, and growth constraints UK Oil & Gas production is declining rapidly UK '11/'12 decline of 13.8 Mtoe (26%yoy - Irish Imports in 212-4,136ktoe) UK gas production-8.15% 1yr avg decline UK '11/'12 decline of 13.8 Mtoe (26%yoy - Irish Imports in 212-4,136ktoe) European competition for Norwegian Gas Ireland energy security traditionally has been a function of UK ES. Irish-TIMES scenarios indicate fuel substitution from oil may test the gas network capacity (peak and average flows) Gas Substitution in transport and electrification of heat Irish Oil imports -2.6% 1yr avg decline / -7.6%/yr from 27 Oil imports cost 1.3bn (1% GDP) in 23, 3.6bn (2.6% GDP) in 212. Imports of 5.2bn (3.2% GDP) 212 High Oil and Gas mitigating investment per annum in bn - 7.9bn (1.9% GDP - 4.9% GDP) Additional CAPEX requirements are larger than expected expected GDP growth 15

16 Thank You Energy Policy & Modelling Group Energy Policy and Modelling Group on 16