Energy Economics. Lecture 3 Crude Oil Market ECO Asst. Prof. Dr. Istemi Berk
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1 Energy Economics ECO-4420 Lecture 3 Crude Oil Market Asst. Prof. Dr. Istemi Berk istemi.berk@deu.edu.tr 1
2 World Fossil Fuel Consumption A Comparison btw. Coal, Oil and Gas Million Tons of Oil Equivalent Global Fossil Fuel Consumption, Crude Oil Natural Gas Coal Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
3 Crude Oil Market An Introduction 3
4 Crude Oil Market Main Actors Upstream Supply Side International/Multinational Oil Companies (IOCs) National Oil Companies (NOCs) especially that of OPEC Small Independent Companies Midstream (Transportation) Pipeline/Tanker Routes owned by companies Crude Oil Traders Downstream Demand Side Refineries & Gasoline Stations 4
5 Refinery Crude Oil Demand 5
6 Crude Oil Consuming Countries Shares in global oil consumption, 2016 USA (20.3%) European Union (13.4%) China (12.8%) OECD(47.9%) Petroleum Products 26.2% gasoline 28.5% diesel 6
7 Midstream Oil Transportation Global Choke Points (Maritime Oil Trans.) Strait of Hourmuz Suez Channel Bab el-mandab Panama Channel Straits of Malacca Turkish Straits 7
8 Distribution of Crude Oil Reserves Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
9 Crude Oil Producing Companies 9
10 Oil Companies International and National (IOCs vs. NOCs) Biggest Oil (&Gas) Companies 1. Saudi Aramco (NOC) 2. Gazprom (NOC) 3. National Iranian (NOC) 4. Exxon Mobil (IOC) 5. Rosneft (NOC) 6. PetroChina (NOC) 7. BP (IOC) 8. Shell (IOC) 9. Pemex (NOC) 10. Kuwait Petroleum (NOC) 10
11 Crude Oil Market A History 1859: first modern oil well drilled by Edwin L. Drake 1870: Foundation of Standard Oil Company by Rockefeller Till 1900s: Monopolization of Standard Oil in the USA Antitrust laws in the USA and dissolve of Standard Oil Globalization of oil market and rise of seven sisters Dominancy of seven sisters (IOCs): until 1960s 11
12 & 1920s-1960 Standard Oil Company & Seven Sisters Split up of Standard Oil Company 3 reasons: New oil discoveries inside and outside US Internationalization of Oil Industry Antitrust laws Sherman Antitrust law (1890) Clayton Act (1924) Rise of Seven Sisters Anglo-Persian Oil Company (United Kingdom) - BP Gulf Oil (United States) - Chevron Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands/United Kingdom) - Shell Standard Oil of California (SoCal) (United States): became Chevron in 1984 Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso) (United States): became Exxon Standard Oil Co. of New York (Socony) (United States): became Mobil Texaco (United States) 12
13 Crude Oil Market Prices $ 2014/bbl International Oil Companies Posted Prices intracompany trade Low volatility especially since World War II till 1970s Market forces in play Few IOCs have largest share 1928 Achnacarry Agreement
14 Crude Oil Market A History $ 2014/bbl : Founda3on of OPEC
15 OPEC What is OPEC? Why was it founded? What is the objective? : Resource Nationalization and rise of NOCs OPEC today 71.5% of oil reserves 42.7% of oil production 15
16 $ 2014/bbl Crude Oil Market Prices OPEC Market Power Second Oil Crisis Iran- Iraq War First Oil Crisis Following Yom Kippur War Arabian Oil Embargo Iraq invades Kuwait First Gulf War
17 1970s Oil Crises Market Power Issues OPEC acting as a cartel What is cartel? Monopoly profit monopoly mark-up elasticity Elasticity of demand vs. elasticity of supply Supply Driven Market Monopoly, Multiplant monopoly and Dominant Firm with Competitive Fringe models 17
18 Crude Oil Market Prices since OPEC $ 2014/bbl 140 International Oil Companies OPEC Market Power Market Demand Pricing
19 Crude Oil Market A History 3 main price benchmarks WTI: West Texas Intermediate American price Brent: North Sea European price Arabian Light (Dubai Crude): Middle East price 3 distinct periods : Posted Prices IOC s dominancy : OPEC prices NOC s dominancy : Market prices consumer dominancy (!) 19
20 Crude Oil Market Prices since 2000s a closer look USD/bbl Price increases almost steadily Summer 2008 Skyrocketed oil prices ~150$/bbl Post 2008: Temporary decline : Persistent high pries ~100 $/bbl
21 Consequences of high crude oil prices 2 main consequences of high prices 1) Demand: - Increase in renewable energy investments - Decrease in future expected demand for all fossil fuels 2) Supply: - Increase in investment in higher cost sources: e.g., shale oil - Supply glut 21
22 Crude Oil Market 2014/2015 Price Collapse USD/bbl /2015 oil price collapse ~50% decline
23 Recent developments in oil market Prices crashed in 2014 and kept on falling in % decline from 2013 to 2015 Crude oil production levels increased from 76 million barrels (MMbbl)/day to 80 MMbbl/day USD/bbl $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Potential reasons High production levels both in non-opec (mostly US shale oil) and in OPEC countries Weakening global oil demand growth Appreciation of US dollar OPEC s policy response no cut in production: surprise why? The Shi' in Global Crude Oil Market Structure: A model based analysis of the price plunge in 2014 Istemi Berk
24 Shale Oil Unconventional source Different geological properties Higher cost harder to recover 24
25 2014/2015 Price Collapse Good or Bad news? For whom? Marginal Cost of oil production (oil break-even curve) 25
26 2014/2015 Price Collapse Good or Bad news? For whom? Fiscal break even for OPEC 26
27 Capacity Witholding Market Power Price $/bbl Quantity (million bbl/day) Short-term Production Capacity Demand Curve Oil Supply Curve 27
28 Behavior of Saudi Arabia Protecting the Market Share Short-term Production Capacity Estimated Production Observed Production milion bbl/day Oligopolistic 2013 Competitive 2013 Oligopolistic 2015 Competitive
29 Shale Oil Learning Curve Decrease in MC of shale oil production in US 29
30 Prices from 2013 to 2015: More competitive oil market $/bbl 100 Crude Oil Prices $/bbl $/bbl Observed Oligopoly Competitive
31 End of Lecture 3 See you next week Asst. Prof. Dr. Istemi Berk istemi.berk@deu.edu.tr 31
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