Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook

Transcription

1 Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Energy Summit 26: Developing and Supporting Critical Energy Infrastructures at the LSU Center for Energy Studies Baton Rouge, Louisiana October 2, 26 A. Michael Schaal, Director Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting 1

2 Overview Petroleum Outlook Natural Gas Outlook Price Cases 2

3 World Oil Prices* in Three Cases, (2 dollars per barrel) High price Reference Low price $96 $7 $ * Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices 3

4 Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, (million barrels per day) Consumption STEO - 1/26 Net Imports 1 Domestic supply

5 Domestic Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) STEO - 1/

6 Net Petroleum Imports (million barrels per day) STEO - 1/

7 Domestic Crude Oil Production by Region (million barrels per day) Lower 8 Onshore 2 Lower 8 Offshore 1 Alaska

8 Ethanol Supply by Source (billion gallons) Cellulose Based RFS Imports Corn Based

9 U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, (trillion cubic feet) Pipeline LNG Net Imports Consumption 1% Natural Gas Net Imports, 2 and 23 (trillion cubic feet) Production STEO - 1/ % 2.8

10 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, (trillion cubic feet) 1 Industrial Electric Generation Residential Commercial Transportation.87

11 28 Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2-23 (trillion cubic feet) 26 Growth in Alaskan Production Growth in LNG Imports Growth in Unconventional Base Production (all sources)

12 Natural Gas Production by Source, (trillion cubic feet) Lower 8 Non-Associated Unconventional 9. 2 Lower 8 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore.17 Lower 8 Non-Associated Offshore Lower 8 Associated-Dissolved 2.1 Alaska

13 Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas esources as of Jan. 1, 2 (trillion cubic feet) Proved 189 Inferred nonassociated 177 Undiscovered nonassociated Unconventional Other unproved Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore Coalbed methane 78 Shale gas Tight gas 7 Alaska Lower 8 associated-dissolved Total: 1,31 trillion cubic feet 13

14 Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, (trillion cubic feet) 3 LNG Canada Mexico -.6

15 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, (2 dollars per thousand cubic feet) $

16 Price Cases 16

17 World Oil Prices* in Three Cases, (2 dollars per barrel) High price Reference Low price $96 $7 $ * Foreign low-sulfur light crude oil prices 17

18 Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, (million barrels per day) 3 2 Low price Reference High price 2 Consumption Net Imports 1 1 Domestic supply High price Reference Low price

19 Net Petroleum Imports, (million barrels per day) 2 2 Low price 1 1 Reference High price

20 Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil Shale Production in the Price Cases, (million barrels per day) 2. Coal to Liquids/ High price Coal to Liquids/ Reference. Oil Shale/High price Gas to Liquids/ High price

21 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, (2 dollars per thousand cubic feet) High price Reference Low price $7.71 $.92 $

22 Natural Gas Consumption and Net Imports, (trillion cubic feet) Consumption Low price Reference High price 1 1 Net Imports Low price Reference High price

23 U.S. LNG Imports, (trillion cubic feet) Low price ($3). 3 Reference ($7) High price ($96)