Macro economic and Energy Factors Driving the Agricultural Outlook
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1 Macro economic and Energy Factors Driving the Agricultural Outlook Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo September 2013 Inter connected Markets Economic growth GDP, Population and Income Currency competition Federal Reserve policy Beliefs Influence versus control Energy and Ag Issues Changing model Ethanol losing its price setting status Protein regains the lead Energy pricing remains problematic 1
2 A single loop from a subsystem Livestock Corn Ethanol Gasoline Crude Oil Global Grain Nat Gas Economic policy and currency Extraordinary Fed Policy Interest rates Money supply Exchange linkages General trade The agricultural dollar The energy dollar The Brent/WTI spread effect 2
3 7 Forecasting madmen History + futures Fed Funds Source: FRED, Wells Fargo Ag Industries 0 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 4 Countries 50% plus of exports 150 US Major Ag Currency Relationships Stronger USD CAD CHINA MX JAP 100 Weaker USD 50 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 3
4 Trade balance positive but slowing US Ag Net Trade in Billions of dollars Jan - Jul Jan - Jul % Product Change Bulk % Intermediate % Consumer Oriented (12.4) (7.4) (6.7) (6.3) (4.0) (2.2) (3.1) (2.7) -15% Forest Products (12.1) (7.5) (4.5) (4.5) (3.0) (4.6) (2.4) (3.5) 47% Fish Products (9.5) (10.0) (9.2) (10.4) (11.3) (11.4) (7.0) (7.1) 1% (3.5) % Always volatile by nature Monetary Policy Economy Fiscal Policy 4
5 Not growing like we used to Share of GDP 0.9 GDP Growth Factors Hours Capital Productivity What s wrong? Assumptions GDP versus Potential GDP 14,500 13,500 GDP Potential GDP 12,500 11,500 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 5
6 Economic growth creates jobs 10% 8% Year over Year Payroll and GDP Payroll Nominal GDP 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 They can change their minds Policy operates on beliefs as much as facts 6
7 Ag and Bio fuel issues Ethanol to corn pricing is fading Weekly feedback loop much weaker Corn to alternative crop pricing Livestock to feed pricing Crude is over priced Highest priced BTU Market could be years correcting Long term technological factors at work Starting weaken this connection 8 6 Year over Year Major Cyclical Indicators Nominal GDP Oil Corn (2) (20) (40) (4) (60) (6) (80) Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 7
8 A major shift in mentality US Supply and Demand Estimates Corn 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Beginning stocks: Production Co-products Imports Total supply Feed Ethanol Other Exports Total use Ending stocks Crop Year Billions of Bushels How do they get to 4.9? Ethanol Usage and Production in Billions of Bushels 5.4 Annualized corn in Annualized corn out Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 8
9 It was a tight connection $7.0 $6.5 $6.0 $5.5 $5.0 $ per bushel Spot IA Corn v. Spot IA Ethanol 2008 to 2009 y = x R² = $4.5 $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 Cents/gallon $ Marginally connected today $ per bushel $8.25 $7.75 y = x R² = Spot IA Corn v. Spot IA Ethanol 2012 to 2013 $7.25 $6.75 $6.25 $5.75 Cents/gallon $
10 The exports/imports matter Keep Track of Your Competition $4.75 $4.25 ICE 11 Contract / gallon IA Spot Corn / gallon $3.75 $3.25 $2.75 $2.25 $1.75 $1.25 $0.75 Apr 08 Oct 08 Apr 09 Oct 09 Apr 10 Oct 10 Apr 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Marketing issues Ethanol Stagnant growth Loses price leader status Feed markets will resume their leader status Who is the lead protein? Cattle remains a disaster Export focus is very problematic Exports need to be reopened 10
11 Slowly stabilizing Millions of barrels per day 52 Week Gasoline Distributions Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Lowest miles since 1996 Miles per capita in the US 10,000 Miles 9,000 9,208 9,228 8,000 7,000 6,000 5, Source: DOT, Wells Fargo Ag Economics 11
12 New cars will lower fuel use 37 MPG Fuel Efficiency of New Cars Purchased weighted by total sales A slow turn over 23 Effective Miles per Gallon US Automotive Fleet Jan 90 Jan 92 Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 12
13 Natural gas issues Price ratio is unsustainable Favors oil production over natural gas Favors natural gas demand over oil Fuel cell technology could be disruptive Long term investments needed to be hedged The market can stay stupid longer $9 Historical and Futures: NG v. WTI $120 $8 $7 NG wellhead $100 $6 $80 $5 $4 $60 $3 $40 $2 $1 $20 $0 $
14 How fast will the market correct? 7 Price Ratio: WTI BTU / NG BTU Recent uptick is noise? 2,000 Monthly Rig Count 1,500 Oil rigs NG rigs 1, Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 14
15 No monopoly on reserves Look at China s position 15
16 It s beautiful thing 7500 US Crude Oil Production 000s of barrels per day Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 This real money for the US Millions of barrels 52 week average Net Imports US Petroleum $235 billion improvement in 7 6 Jan 93 Jan 95 Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 16
17 Final thoughts Policy Beliefs Influence versus control Intersection of Energy and Agriculture A true competitive advantage for the US Ethanol policy is broken Technological change Price substitution Watch the global impacts 17
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