Impact of Ethanol on Iowa s Transportation System

Transcription

1 Impact of Ethanol on Iowa s Transportation System Legislative Agriculture Chairs Summit VI St Louis, MO January 18-20, 2008 Craig O Riley, Office of Systems Planning 1

2 Discussion Topics Agricultural Trends Ethanol Trends Transportation Impacts 2

3 Agricultural Trends Farms Elevators Production Distribution & Transportation 3

4 Increasing Iowa Grain Production 3,000 2,500 Corn 2,000 1,500 1, Million Bushels Soybeans e 2012e 2015e Source: Iowa Dept of Ag, ISU Year

5 Iowa Farmers Owning More Semis 1,000 Vehicles Wagon Sgl-Axle Truck Tandem-Axle Truck Semi

6 More Elevator Affiliations Elevators Year 6

7 Iowa s Grain Facilities 7

8 Iowa May Need only 2 or 3 Shuttle Train Loaders per County Train_Loaders 0 to to to to 5 Assumes all corn production is moved by 110-car unit trains at 4,000 bushels per car with 24 turns per year. 8

9 More Iowa Grain is Moved by Truck Year Grain Sales Rail Originations Million Tons

10 Iowa Ethanol Trends Production Facilities Distribution & Transportation 10

11 Iowa s Ethanol Production is on the Rise 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Year Million Gallons

12 Iowa Leads the Nation in Ethanol Production 1, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, All Others Million Gallons Iowa Illinois Nebraska Minnesota South Dakota Wisconsin Kansas Missouri Source: RFA Jan 2007 State

13 Iowa Ethanol Facilities have Increased Dramatically Year Number of Plants Ethanol Capacity (million gallons) Corn Required (million bushels) 2002 Existing Construction / Planning Total Existing 29 1, Expansion (12) New Construction 16 1, Planning 24 2, Total 69 6,526 2,417 13

14 Iowa s Ethanol Facilities 14

15 Corn Equivalence Livestock Feed 1 bushel = 2.7 gallons + 17 pounds Corn Ethanol Feed 15

16 Corn-Ethanol Process Output by Weight Carbon Dioxide, Other 37% Ethanol 32% Distillers Grain 31% 16

17 Transportation Equivalence 1 semi truck = 900 bushels of corn = 8,000 gallons of ethanol = 25 tons of feed 1 rail car = 4,000 bushels of corn = 30,000 gallons of ethanol = 100 tons of feed Corn Ethanol Feed 1 rail car = 4.4 semi trucks 1 rail car = 3.75 semi trucks 1 rail car = 4 semi trucks 17

18 Grain Flows before Ethanol Farm 1,000 Acres 180,000 Bushels 200 semi trucks Elevator 200 semi trucks or 45 rail cars 18

19 Grain Flows after Ethanol Farm 1,000 Acres 180,000 Bushels 200 semi trucks Ethanol Plant 120 semi trucks Elevator 80 semi trucks 80 semi trucks 122 semi trucks or 32 rail cars 19

20 Inbound Requirements for Ethanol 100 Million Gallon For Existing Plants For Existing & Planned Sites Corn (bu) 37.0 million Acres Harvested 730 million 2,417 million 205, million 13.4 million Semi Trucks 41, , million Semi Trucks per Day 160 3,120 10,330 20

21 Ethanol s Share of Iowa s Corn Production 3,000 2,500 Non Ethanol Use, 370 MIllion Bushels 2,000 1,500 1, Corn Production, 2,441 Proposed Ethanol Use, 1,101 Construction, Existing Ethanol Use,

22 Draw Area Existing Ethanol Plants Rail Line NHS 22

23 Draw Area Existing & Under Construction Plants Rail Line NHS Existing Construction 23

24 Draw Area Existing, Under Construction & Proposed Plants Rail Line NHS Existing Construction Proposed 24

25 Outbound Requirements for Ethanol 100 Million Gallon For Existing Plants For Planned Sites Corn All by rail 9,260 cars 182,600 cars 421,700 cars Ethanol All by rail 3,330 cars 65,700 cars 151,800 cars DDGs 3,150 62, ,400 Total 6,480 cars 127,800 cars 295,200 cars Ethanol 65% by rail 2,170 cars 42,700 cars 98,700 cars DDGs 56% by rail 1,760 34,800 80,300 Total 3,930 cars 77,500 cars 179,000 cars Ethanol 35% by truck 4,375 semis 86,300 semis 199,200 semis DDGs 44% by truck 5, , ,300 Total 9,916 semis 195,600 semis 451,500 semis Per Day ,672 25

26 Iowa s Biodiesel Facilities Year Number of Plants Biodiesel Capacity Soybeans Required (million gallons) (million bushels) 2007 Existing Expansion (1) New Construction Planning Total

27 Iowa s Biodiesel Facilities Lester Estherville Milford Sioux Center Algona Mason City Marble Rock Akron Marcus Hardy Storm Lake Sergeant Bluff Galva Iowa Falls Farley Wall Lake Ralston Boone Nevada Huxley Altoona Newton Clinton Camanche Council Bluffs Washington Crawsfordsville Operational Construction Fairfield Planning Centerville Lamoni Keokuk 27

28 Biodiesel s Share of Iowa s Soybean Production 700 Total = Million Bushels Soybean Production 443 Planned 364 Under Construction 46 Existing

29 Cellulosic Feedstock Corn Stocks Corn Cobs 3 tons / acre 117 gal / ton 350 gal / acre 1 ton / acre 80 gal / ton 80 gal / acre Miscanthus Switch Grass Sugar Cane 15 tons / acre 100 gal / ton 1500 gal / acre 7.5 tons / acre 100 gal / ton 750 gal / acre??? tons / acre??? gal / ton 600 to 800 gal / acre 29

30 Future Outlook Increasing corn production Shift to value adding activities Livestock feeding, processing, ethanol, biodiesel Counties importing corn More truck movements to rail sites and local markets Fewer rail shipments Local road issues Cellulosic transportation requirements 30

31 Questions Craig O Riley Iowa Department of Transportation Phone: (515) Craig.ORiley@dot.iowa.gov 31