Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department f Agriculture Freign Agricultural Service May 2018 Oilseeds: Wrld Markets and Trade Glbal Oilseed Demand Grwth Frecast t Outpace Prductin (Again) Glbal Oilseed Prductin and Cnsumptin Millin Metric Tns / / / / /18 Sybean Rapeseed Sunflwerseed Cttnseed Peanut Cpra + Palm Kernel Dmestic Cnsumptin Glbal ilseed prductin is frecast t grw slightly in. Sybean prductin is prjected up, as Argentina is frecast t rebund frm this year's drught, ffsetting year-veryear declines in prductin f the United States. Rapeseed and sunflwerseed are bth frecast t cntinue their grwth in prductin. The palm kernel crp is expected higher in line with palm il prductin. Peanut and cttnseed prductin are expected t decline. Glbal ilseed cnsumptin is frecast t rise, led by grwth in China s sybean crush. Glbal sybean demand, measured by ttal dmestic cnsumptin, is expected t grw at a slid rate, slightly lwer than prductin grwth. Cnsumptin f ther ilseeds is expected up as well, with the exceptin f cttnseed where glbal supplies are reduced. Glbal ilseed trade is frecast up n higher demand frm China. Glbal ending stcks are prjected t fall, as lwer carryin stcks cupled with increased cnsumptin will result in lwer ending stcks fr. While the ending stcks f palm kernel and rapeseed are expected t grw, all ther ilseed stcks, led by cttnseed and peanuts, are expected t fall. Apprved by the Wrld Agricultural Outlk Bard/USDA

2 Glbal Prtein Meal Cnsumptin Millin Metirc Tns / / / / /18 Meal, Sybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sunflwerseed Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Peanut Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Cpra Glbal prtein meal prductin is expected t grw slightly in, tempered by a slight decline in fish meal prductin. Glbal prtein meal cnsumptin is als frecast t rise, mainly driven by rbust demand frm China. Trade in prtein meals is expected t grw as well, with sybean meal exprts frecast up. Sunflwerseed meal exprts are prjected up sharply, while peanut meal exprts are frecast t fall. 250 Glbal Vegetable Oil Prductin and Cnsumptin 200 Millin Metic Tns / / / / /18 Oil, Palm Oil, Sybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sunflwerseed Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Ccnut Ttal Cnsumptin

3 Glbal vegetable il prductin is expected t grw mdestly, with all majr ils frecast up except fr live il. Palm, sybean, and palm kernel il prductin are all expected t see a healthy jump n higher crp estimates. Strng sybean meal demand will spur higher crush vlumes, resulting in higher sybean il prductin. Bth rapeseed il and sunflwerseed il are prjected t experience mdest grwth. Glbal vegetable il cnsumptin fr fd is frecast t expand, reflecting grwth in ppulatin and imprved purchasing pwer in emerging ecnmies. Grwing fd use will primarily be met by palm and sybean il, fllwed by sunflwerseed and rapeseed ils. Glbal cnsumptin f ils fr industrial use is als frecast t increase, in line with grwing bidiesel prductin in majr markets. Glbal vegetable il trade is expected t see a healthy increase, with strng grwth in palm, sybean, and sunflwerseed ils, despite reductins in cttnseed, live, and ccnut ils. Glbal ending stcks are frecast t grw, led by a jump in palm il stcks. Grwing demand fr glden ils is utpacing prductin, and will result in a drawdwn f sybean and rapeseed il stcks. 30 Glbal Oil Ending Stcks 25 Milin Metric Tns / / / / /18 Oil, Palm Oil, Sybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sunflwerseed Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Olive Oil, Peanut Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Fr an subscriptin, click here t register:

4 OVERVIEW Glbal ilseed prductin is frecast at millin tns, up nearly 4 percent. Sybean prductin is prjected at millin tns, up 17.8 millin tns, an increase f rughly 5 percent. Gains in Argentina and India mre than ffset reductins fr the United States, Paraguay, and Canada. Rapeseed and sunflwerseed prductin is prjected higher while small reductins are frecast fr cttnseed and peanut. Sybean imprts are frecast t rise, driven by strng glbal demand led by China. Brazil is expected t cntinue being the leading sybean exprter in. Strng glbal demand fr prtein feed will bst crush, which in turn will pressure sybean stcks lwer. Trade f sybean meal and sybean il are bth frecast t expand n grwing glbal demand. The U.S. seasn-average farm price fr sybeans is prjected at $10.00 per bushel. 2017/18 Glbal ilseed prductin is raised slightly this mnth t millin tns. Larger sybean prductin estimates fr Brazil, Paraguay, and the Eurpean Unin mre than ffset a reductin fr Argentina. Rapeseed prductin in India and the sunflwerseed crp in Ukraine, Mldva, and the Eurpean Unin have been revised up. Peanut prductin estimates fr Nigeria, Chad, and Tanzania have been raised as well, while the U.S. and Turkey cttnseed crps were revised lwer. Glbal sybean exprts are frecast higher this mnth n gains fr Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and Ukraine. Sybean imprts have been bsted this mnth n larger shipments t Argentina, Egypt, the Eurpean Unin, and Russia. Glbal sybean ending stcks are raised significantly this mnth, primarily reflecting a larger harvest in Brazil. The U.S. seasn-average farm price fr sybeans is up $0.05 t $9.35 per bushel. SOYBEAN PRICES U.S. exprt bids in April, FOB Gulf, averaged $417/tn, up $8 frm the previus mnth. In cmparisn, FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $430/tn, up $16/tn frm last mnth. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $421/tn, up $21 frm last mnth. Prices have risen sharply in respnse t crp lsses in Argentina. Strengthening sy meal prices and initial signs f an uptick in demand fr U.S. supplies bth added supprt. April prices have als been trending higher n grwing U.S. supply cncerns fllwing the reduced planting intentins reprted in the NASS Prspective Plantings reprt. In cntrast, early May prices have been trending dwnwards, influenced by weakening exchange rates in Brazil and Argentina. Fr the week ending May 3, U.S. 2017/18 sybean exprt cmmitments (utstanding sales plus accumulated exprts) t China ttaled 28.7 millin tns cmpared t 35.8 millin a year ag. Ttal cmmitments t the wrld are 55.1 millin tns, cmpared t 57.0 millin fr the same perid last year.

5 Exprt Prices (f..b.) /2/17 5/30/17 6/27/17 7/25/17 8/22/17 9/19/17 10/17/17 11/14/17 12/12/17 1/9/18 2/6/18 3/6/18 4/3/18 5/1/18 Argentina - Syabeans Brazil - Syabeans US - Syabeans Surce: Internatinal Grains Cuncil. U.S. Prices: 2Y(Gulf). Brazil prices: Paranagua. Argentina: Up River. Technical Ntes and Histrical Revisins Please nte that due t a methdlgical change in cverage, the series f estimates f Other in the Palm Oil accunt f the PSD database has been updated this mnth. The changes are implemented frm Market Year 2000/01 and nward.

6 OUTLOOK SOYBEANS Glbal sybean prductin in is frecast t surge t millin tns, an increase f 17.8 millin tns abve the 2017/18 prductin estimate. This increase primarily reflects a recvering crp frm the current drught in Argentina. Glbal harvested area is frecast t expand 3 percent, largely in Suth America and India, mre than ffsetting a marginal reductin in the United States. In the United States, lwer harvested area, cupled with trend yields, is expected t result in a slight decline f prductin, but is still prjected t be the third-largest n recrd. Acreage in Suth America 1, which will be harvested in 2019, is frecast t rise 6 percent t 61.3 millin hectares, with prductin reaching millin tns. Sybean prductin in China is virtually unchanged at 14.1 millin tns, while prductin in India is prjected t rebund t 10.8 millin tns. Prductin in Ukraine is frecast t reach a recrd 4.5 millin tns in respnse t cntinuing acreage expansin. Annual Change in Sybean Acreage in Majr Exprting Cuntries 400 Glbal Sybean Cnsumptin t Outpace Prductin 2016/ /18 Millin MT Millin Hectares United States Other Suth America Brazil Argentina Prductin Cnsumptin Despite the rebund in glbal prductin, ttal glbal sybean supply is prjected t nly rise 4 percent with lwer carryin frm 2017/18. Cntinued grwth in glbal demand will likely push "disappearance" t exceed prductin, leading t stck drawdwns in the cming year. The glbal stcks/use rati will fall slightly, but will remain at a healthy level. Glbal sybean imprts are frecast t rise 5 percent in, primarily in respnse t grwth in China, Sutheast Asia, the Middle East, and Mexic. Brazil and the United States will cntinue t be the main glbal sybean suppliers. Brazil s sybean exprts are prjected t exceed thse f the United States fr the seventh year in a rw. 1 Suth America is defined by Argentina, Blivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

7 Glbal sybean meal imprts are frecast t grw 3 percent in, up frm 2017/18 and fllwing a rebund fr Argentina. Grwth in sybean meal imprts is suppressed by grwing trade f sybeans, as they cmpete in identical sectrs. Argentina will cntinue t be the largest exprter f sybean meal. Exprts fr Brazil, the United States, Blivia, and India are prjected lwer. Glbal sybean meal cnsumptin is frecast t grw 5 percent, led by markets with grwing livestck and pultry cnsumptin, such as China, Suth and Sutheast Asia, and the Middle East. 170 Glbal Sybean Exprts vs. Sybean Meal Exprts 12 Glbal Sybean Oil Exprts Millin MT Millin MT Sybean Meal Sybean Sybean il exprts are frecast t rise 3 percent in with ttal vlume prjected t reach nearly 11.0 millin tns. While cmpetitin with ther vegetable ils will remain tight, glbal demand is als expected t grw in, n imprved affrdability spurring fd use, and expanding industrial cnsumptin. Ending stcks will decline nly slightly, but remain significantly belw the 5-year average. Highlights U.S. sybean exprts are prjected t rise 6.1 millin tns t a recrd 62.3 millin, while meal and il exprts are frecast slightly lwer at 11.2 millin and 953,000 tns, respectively. Argentina sybean exprts are prjected t surge t 8.0 millin tns, meal exprts are frecast t grw 1.5 millin tns t 30.5 millin, and il is up 425,000 tns t 5.1 millin. Brazil sybean exprts are prjected dwn 1.0 millin tns t 72.3 millin, meal exprts are cut 100,000 tns t 15.5 millin, and il exprts are expected slightly lwer at 1.3 millin tns. China sybean imprts are prjected up 6.0 millin tns t millin, while meal exprts remain stable at 1.0 millin tns. Oil imprts are frecast t decline 100,000 tns t 350,000. Egypt sybean imprts are up 100,000 tns t 2.9 millin while meal imprts are expected t decline 100,000 tns t 1.0 millin.

8 Eurpean Unin sybean imprts are prjected t rise 100,000 tns t 14.2 millin with meal imprts unchanged at 18.5 millin. Oil imprts are frecast almst unchanged at 250,000 tns while exprts are expected t rise 50,000 tns t 800,000. India sybean il imprts are frecast t rise 200,000 tns t 3.6 millin. Sybean meal exprts are expected t decline 100,000 tns t 1.4 millin. Pakistan sybean imprts are frecast t grw 300,000 tns t 2.3 millin. Vietnam sybean and sybean meal imprts are prjected t grw 200,000 tns each t 2.0 and 5.0 millin tns, respectively. RAPESEED Glbal rapeseed prductin in is prjected t rise 1.1 millin tns, nearly 2 percent mre than in the current year. Prductin gains are frecast fr Australia, the Eurpean Unin, India, as well as a slight increase in bth Ukraine and the United States. Crp prjectins fr Canada and China are dwn. Glbal exprts are frecast t rise mdestly t a recrd level f 17.5 millin tns, buyed by strng demand frm China. Glbal rapeseed crush is frecast t grw in the cming year, leading t increases in bth rapeseed meal and il utput. Highlights U.S. rapeseed imprts are prjected higher at 635,000 tns, meal imprts are raised t 3.4 millin tns, and il is higher at 2.1 millin tns. Australia rapeseed exprts are bsted sharply t 3.0 millin tns. Rapeseed il exprts are prjected unchanged at 170,000 tns. Canada rapeseed exprts are prjected unchanged at 11.5 millin tns, meal exprts are up slightly t 4.9 millin tns, while il exprts are dwn t 3.1 millin tns. China rapeseed imprts are prjected t surge t 5.3 millin tns, meal imprts are lwered t 1.0 millin tns, and il imprts are unchanged at 700,000 tns. Eurpean Unin rapeseed imprts are prjected t decline slightly t 4.2 millin tns while exprts are expected t grw t 300,000 tns. Ukraine rapeseed exprts are prjected slightly higher at 2.2 millin tns.

9 Key Exprters Bst Rapeseed Shipments Glbal Rapeseed Stcks Cntinue t Recver Millin MT 8 6 Millin MT Australia Ukraine Canada / / / / / /18 Canada China EU ROW SUNFLOWERSEED Glbal sunflwerseed prductin in is frecast at a recrd 49.8 millin tns. Larger crp prjectins fr Ukraine, Russia, China, and Kazakhstan mre than ffset a smaller frecast fr the Eurpean Unin. Sunflwerseed area is expanding in Russia, Argentina, Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and Mldva. Prjected higher yields fr Russia and Ukraine will drive the sunflwerseed prductin t a new recrd f 27.0 millin tns, allwing bth cuntries t cllectively crush a recrd 26.0 millin tns, up 10 percent. Glbal sunflwerseed crush is prjected t grw 5 percent, in line with the grwth in glbal demand fr sunflwerseed meal and il. Glbal sunflwerseed stcks at the end f are frecast t decline further, 22 percent belw the 5-year average. Glbal sunflwerseed meal imprts are frecast t grw t 7.5 millin tns, n strng demand in the Eurpean Unin, Nrth Africa, and the Middle East. Sunflwerseed il imprts are frecast up at 8.6 millin tns, the secnd-highest n recrd. This reflects strng demand in India, the Eurpean Unin, China, Nrth Africa, and the Middle East. Despite grwing glbal prductin f sunflwerseed il, rising cnsumptin will keep stcks relatively tight.

10 25 20 Grwing Sunflwerseed Crush Spurs Meal Trade and Use Sunflwerseed Oil Cnsumptin Cntinues t Grw in Majr Markets Millin MT Millin MT / / / / / / / / / /18 Feed Cnsumptin Prductin EU-28 MENA India Russia China Turkey ROW Highlights China sunflwerseed imprts and exprts are prjected unchanged at 150,000 and 380,000 tns, respectively. Sunflwerseed meal and il imprts are frecast t grw t 100,000 and 900,000 tns, respectively. Eurpean Unin sunflwerseed imprts are frecast at 500,000 tns while exprts are prjected at 350,000 tns. Sunflwerseed meal imprts are frecast t grw 200,000 tns t 4.0 millin. Sunflwerseed il imprts and exprts are prjected unchanged at 1.5 millin and 490,000 tns, respectively. Ukraine sunflwerseed exprts are frecast unchanged at 50,000 tns. Sunflwerseed meal and il exprts are prjected t reach new recrds f 5.1 and 5.8 millin tns, respectively. Russia sunflwerseed exprts are frecast t grw t 200,000 tns. Sunflwerseed meal exprts are frecast t decline slightly t 1.3 millin tns while il exprts are prjected t grw t 2.2 millin tns. India sunflwerseed il imprts are frecast t reach a new recrd f 2.2 millin tns. Turkey sunflwerseed imprts are expected t reach 600,000 tns. Meal imprts are frecast at 980,000 tns and il imprts at 500,000 tns.

11 PEANUTS Glbal peanut prductin in is frecast dwn nearly 1.0 millin tns t 44.6 millin, as area harvested in the United States and Senegal is prjected t decline. While this wuld be the third-largest peanut prductin n recrd, lwer utput paired with healthy grwth in glbal imprts are expected t lead t a drawdwn in glbal stcks by 23 percent. Argentina, India, China, and the United States are likely t remain the primary exprters, with exprt grwth prjected nly fr China. U.S. exprts are prjected t decline 8 percent, mainly n slwing demand frm China as its crp is prjected at a new recrd. The Eurpean Unin will remain the wrld s largest imprter, fllwed by Indnesia. Thusand MT Exprts Decline n Weaker Demand fr U.S. Peanuts Argentina China India United States 2016/ /18 Millin MT Majr Peanut Imprters / / / /18 EU Other Asia China Vietnam Mexic Canada Highlights U.S. exprts are frecast t drp t 544,000 tns. Argentina and India exprts are unchanged at 740,000 and 850,000 tns, respectively. China imprts are frecast at 325,000 tns and exprts are prjected up 30,000 tns t 750,000. Eurpean Unin imprts are 30,000 tns higher at 970,000. Senegal exprts are unchanged at 130,000 tns. Vietnam imprts are 20,000 tns higher at 270,000.

12 COTTONSEED glbal cttnseed prductin is prjected at 44.3 millin tns, dwn 1 percent frm the current year. Lwer frecasts fr the United States, Australia, and China are expected t mre than ffset gains in Pakistan and Turkey. Prductin prjectins fr Brazil and India are unchanged frm the current year. Lwer utput fr majr exprters is likely t curb shipments t majr markets. With glbal cnsumptin frecast slightly higher, stcks are dwn nearly 23 percent Cttnseed Prductin Declines While Cnsumptin Rises Cttn Seed Trade Declines n Smaller Crp Frecast 2016/ /18 Exprts Millin MT Thusand MT / / / / / U.S. Pakistan India China Other Cnsumptin Highlights U.S. exprts are prjected dwn 45,000 tns t 386,000. Australia cttnseed exprts are frecast dwn 50,000 tns t 280,000. Brazil exprts are frecast at 40,000 tns, dwn 20,000. China imprts are prjected t grw 20,000 tns t 200,000. Mexic imprts are frecast dwn 80,000 tns t 100,000. Saudi Arabia imprts are unchanged at 120,000 tns. Suth Krea imprts are expected t grw slightly t 165,000 tns while Japan imprts are prjected t stay unchanged at 140,000.

13 OLIVE OIL Glbal live il prductin in is frecast at 3.1 millin tns, dwn 4 percent. The Eurpean Unin remains the largest prducer with ver 70 percent f the wrld s live utput. Prductin prspects in the Eurpean Unin are expected t imprve and reach ver 2.2 millin tns. Exprt grwth is driving new investments in live grves, including new plantatins incrprating irrigatin technlgy. Abundant rains thrugh March 2018 will cntribute t imprved yields in Spain, while investments in irrigatin ensure Prtugal s cntinued expansin. The higher prductin anticipated in these tw cuntries ffsets the prjected decline in Italy. Stable prductin levels are frecast fr Greece. Olive il supplies in the Eurpean Unin are frecast t be ample t meet dmestic needs and t allw fr exprt grwth in. Olive il exprts are slightly dwn in. Tunisia exprts are prjected dwn n lwer supplies, while Turkey exprts are likely t cntinue t grw n large carryin stcks. Glbal extra virgin live il prices are likely t remain under pressure as exprters live il stcks are frecast t cntinue t recver. US-$/Tn Extra Virgin Olive Oil Prices in Spain Plummet n Recvered 2017/18 Supplies Millin MT Millin MT Glbal Olive Oil Stcks Cntinue t Rebund Thusand Tns / / / / /18 0 EU MY Prductin Estimate OVOO Price, Spain, USD/tn Prductin Stcks Highlights U.S. imprts are prjected up slightly t 330,000 tns. Eurpean Unin exprts are frecast t grw t 670,000 tns, while imprts are prjected lwer at 150,000 tns. Tunisia exprts are frecast t drp 70,000 tns t 140,000. Turkey exprts are prjected t grw 30,000 tns t 90,000.

14 PALM OIL AND PALM KERNEL Glbal palm il prductin in is frecast t cntinue grw at a healthy pace as key exprters Malaysia and Indnesia expand acreage and prductin. Changing preferences in key markets, additinal tariffs in key imprters, and limited bidiesel demand grwth add headwinds t glbal cnsumptin, utweighing the imprving price cmpetitiveness f palm il vis-à-vis ther majr vegetable ils. As such, grwth in glbal prductin is expected t utpace grwth in cnsumptin, leading t recrd glbal stcks. Grwing Palm Oil Stcks Exprts, Millin MT Glbal Stcks, Millin MT / / / / / /18 Indnesia Malaysia ROW Glbal Stcks 0 Highlights U.S. imprts are up 55,000 tns t 1.6 millin. India imprts are frecast up 900,000 tns t 11.5 millin, while Bangladesh and Pakistan are bth up 150,000 tns t 1.8 millin and 3.3 millin, respectively. Indnesia exprts are frecast up 1.2 millin tns t 29.2 millin, while Malaysia is up 250,000 tns t 17.5 millin. Glbal palm kernel prductin in is frecast t rise, reflecting the expected grwth in palm il prductin. Palm kernel meal trade is frecast t rise slightly as well, with demand fr industrial use f palm kernel hulls expected t cntinue. Leading imprter New Zealand is frecast t grw slightly, while EU imprts are expected t decline slightly. Japan imprts are prjected t grw based n their feed-in tariff and bimass plicies. Palm kernel il imprts are unchanged despite higher availability frm majr prducers.

15 Highlights U.S. il imprts are slightly up t 425,000 tns. China il imprts are flat at 580,000 tns. Eurpean Unin meal and il imprts remain steady at 2.0 millin and 740,000 tns, respectively. Indnesia meal exprts are up 100,000 tns t 4.7 millin, and il exprts up 50,000 tns t 1.9 millin. Malaysia meal and il exprts are unchanged at 2.4 millin and 950,000 tns, respectively. New Zealand meal imprts are unchanged at 2.3 millin tns. Millin Metric Tns Palm Kernel Meal Industrial Use Met by Grwing Prductin 2013/ / / / / Millin Metric Tns Palm Kernel Meal Exprts Palm Kernel Meal Industrial Use

16 COPRA Glbal cpra prductin in is frecast t rise 1.7 percent, due t imprved yields stemming frm better practices and favrable weather. Cpra meal prductin is prjected t slightly increase, as higher prductin in the Philippines, Mexic, and Vietnam is ffset by lwer utput in India and Indnesia. Ccnut il prductin is up 1.5 percent, while glbal exprts are prjected t decline in respnse t waning imprt demand. This is will lead t an increase in glbal ending stcks. Millin MT Glbal Ccnut Oil 2013/ / / / /18 Eurpean Unin United States Other China Malaysia Highlights U.S. il imprts are up slightly t 465,000 tns, while the Eurpean Unin remains the tp glbal imprter at 475,000 tns. Malaysia ccnut il imprts are frecast t decline t 140,000 tns, while exprts are unchanged at 110,000 tns. Indnesia il exprts are dwn 50,000 tns t 470,000, while meal exprts remain unchanged at 240,000 tns. Philippines il exprts are frecast t reach 1.0 millin tns, n increasing prductin.

17 FISHMEAL Glbal fishmeal prductin and exprts are expected t decline slightly in. Peru cntinues t be the largest prducer and exprter, but the gap between it and secndary prducers such as the Eurpean Unin, Vietnam, and China has narrwed significantly. Peru cntinues t tightly manage its catch in light f cncerns ver sustainability. With rapid grwth in aquaculture prductin arund the wrld, the demand fr aquafeed has expanded prprtinately. Fishmeal is a key ingredient fr that sectr and must cmpete with sy meal's cntinuing emergence as an alternative prtein surce. Tight glbal supplies f fishmeal, hwever, will cntinue t prvide supprt t prices and t be a limiting factr fr further grwth in fishmeal demand. Glbal Fishmeal Prductin and Cnsumptin 3.5 3, Millin MT / / / / / /18 China East and SE Asia EU + Other Eurpe Nrth and Suth America MENA Feed Use Highlights China imprts remain cnstant at 1.0 millin tns. Peru exprts rise 90,000 tns t 900,000.

18 2017/18 OUTLOOK CHANGES Cuntry Cmmdity Attribute Previus Current Change Reasn United States Sybean Meal Exprts 11,340 11, Sybean Oil Exprts 907 1, Increased pprtunity prvided by lwer Argentina exprts Argentina Sybean Meal Exprts 29,500 29, Reduced supply n lwer crush Sybean Oilseed 2,400 3, Strng pace f trade frm Paraguay Brazil Sybean Meal Exprts 15,450 15, Sybean Oilseed Exprts 73,100 73, Opprtunity prvided by lwer Argentina exprts Increased supplies resulting frm larger prductin estimate Rapeseed Meal 950 1, Strnger imprt pace frm Canada China Sybean Meal Exprts 1,200 1, Weaker trade pace primarily t Japan Palm Oil 4,800 4, Grwing imprts frm Indnesia Rapeseed Oil Slwer pace f trade frm Canada Rapeseed Oilseed 4,700 4, Weaker than expected trade t date Clmbia Palm Oil Exprts Slw Q1 trade pace Egypt Sybean Meal 1,200 1, Larger crush reduces imprt needs Sybean Oilseed 2,600 2, Grwing trend in crush Eurpean Unin Sybean Meal 18,900 18, Sybean Oilseed 14,000 14, Weaker pace n reduced Argentine supplies Strnger pace in Q2 f the marketing year India Sybean Meal Exprts 1,600 1, Slw trade pace resulting frm lwer reginal demand Paraguay Sybean Oilseed Exprts 5,800 6, Strng exprt pace t Argentina Russia Sybean Oilseed Pace f trade Exprts 2,200 2, Grwing exprts f nn-bitech sybeans t China Suth Africa Turkey Rapeseed Meal Exprts Sybean Meal Sunflwerseed Oil Exprts Sunflwerseed Oilseed Strnger dmestic demand limits exprtable supplies Larger supplies available fr dmestic use Reduced supplies and larger dmestic use Lwer dmestic prductin and strnger dmestic demand

19 Cuntry Cmmdity Attribute Previus Current Change Reasn Sunflwerseed Meal Exprts 4,500 4, Increased availability with larger crush and seed prductin Ukraine Sunflwerseed Oil Exprts 5,000 5, Larger supplies and strnger exprt pace Sybean Oilseed Exprts 2,500 2, Strnger exprts t the EU Sybean Meal 5,050 4, Vietnam Sybean Oilseed 1,900 1, Nte: All figures are in thusand metric tns. Slwer than expected demand grwth Week early marketing year pace f trade.

20 Questins may be directed t: Bill Gerge (202) Agata Kingsbury (202) Justin Che (202) Christine Mumma (202) T dwnlad the tables in the publicatin, g t the Prductin, Supply and Distributin Database (PSD Online): ( scrll dwn t Reprts, and click the plus sign [+] next t Oilseeds. The Freign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its prductin, supply and distributin (PSD) database fr cttn, ilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. n the day the Wrld Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reprt is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reprts and Databases: Current Wrld Markets and Trade and Wrld Agricultural Prductin Reprts: Archives Wrld Markets and Trade and Wrld Agricultural Prductin Reprts: Prductin, Supply and Distributin Database (PSD Online): Glbal Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exprts and ): Exprt Sales Reprt: Glbal Agricultural Infrmatin Netwrk (Agricultural Attaché Reprts): Other USDA Reprts: Wrld Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Ecnmic Research Service: Natinal Agricultural Statistics Service:

21 List f Tables SUMMARY TABLES Table 01 Majr Oilseeds: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Table 02 Majr Prtein Meals: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Table 03 Majr Vegetable Oils: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Table 04 Majr Oilseeds: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) Table 05 Majr Prtein Meals: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) Table 06 Majr Vegetable Oils: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) COMMODITY TABLES Table 07 Sybeans: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 08 Sybean Meal: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 09 Sybean Oil: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 10 Sybeans and Prducts: Wrld Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 12 Rapeseed and Prducts: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 13 Sunflwerseed and Prducts: Wrld Supply and Distributin Table 14 Mi Vegetable Oils: Wrld Supply and Distributin HISTORICAL TABLES Table 15 Wrld Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 16 Wrld Sybeans and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 17 Wrld Rapeseed and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 18 Wrld Sunflwerseed and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 19 Wrld Palm Oil, Ccnut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distributin COUNTRY TABLES Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Lcal Marketing Years Table 21 United States Sybeans and Prducts Supply and Distributin Lcal Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Sybeans and Prducts Supply and Distributin Lcal Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Sybeans and Prducts Supply and Distributin Lcal Marketing Years Table 24 Suth East Asia Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 26 Eurpean Unin Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 27 China Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin Table 28 India Oilseeds and Prducts Supply and Distributin PRICES Table 29 Table 30 Table 31 Oilseed Prices Prtein Meal Prices Vegetable Oil Prices

22 Table 01: Majr Oilseeds: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin Oilseed, Cpra Oilseed, Cttnseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sybean Oilseed, Sunflwerseed Ttal Oilseed, Cpra Oilseed, Cttnseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sybean Oilseed, Sunflwerseed Ttal Exprts Oilseed, Cpra Oilseed, Cttnseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sybean Oilseed, Sunflwerseed Ttal Crush Oilseed, Cpra Oilseed, Cttnseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sybean Oilseed, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ending Stcks Oilseed, Cpra Oilseed, Cttnseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Sybean Oilseed, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ttals may nt add due t runding

23 Table 02: Majr Prtein Meals: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin Meal, Cpra Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sybean Meal, Sunflwerseed Ttal Meal, Cpra Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sybean Meal, Sunflwerseed Ttal Exprts Meal, Cpra Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sybean Meal, Sunflwerseed Ttal Dmestic Cnsumptin Meal, Cpra Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sybean Meal, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ending Stcks Meal, Cpra Meal, Cttnseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Sybean Meal, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ttals may nt add due t runding

24 Table 03: Majr Vegetable Oils: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cmmdity View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sybean Oil, Sunflwerseed Ttal Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sybean Oil, Sunflwerseed Ttal Exprts Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sybean Oil, Sunflwerseed Ttal Dmestic Cnsumptin Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sybean Oil, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ending Stcks Oil, Ccnut Oil, Cttnseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sybean Oil, Sunflwerseed Ttal Ttals may nt add due t runding

25 Table 04: Majr Oilseeds: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin United States Brazil Argentina China India Other Ttal China Eurpean Unin Mexic Japan Pakistan Thailand Indnesia Turkey Egypt Russia Other Ttal Exprts Brazil United States Canada Argentina Paraguay Ukraine Australia Other Crush Ttal China United States Eurpean Unin Argentina Brazil India Russia Ukraine Indnesia Canada Mexic Pakistan Malaysia Japan Turkey Other Ttal Ending Stcks Argentina Brazil China United States Eurpean Unin Other Ttal Majr Oilseeds includes Cpra, Cttnseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Sybeans and Sunflwerseeds.

26 Table 05: Majr Prtein Meals: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin China United States Argentina Brazil Eurpean Unin Other Ttal Eurpean Unin Vietnam Indnesia United States Thailand Krea, Suth Japan Other Ttal Exprts Argentina Brazil United States Ukraine Canada Indnesia Paraguay Other Ttal Dmestic Cnsumptin China Eurpean Unin United States Brazil India Russia Mexic Vietnam Japan Thailand Other SME Ttal China Eurpean Unin United States Brazil India Mexic Vietnam Other Ttal Ending Stcks Brazil Argentina Eurpean Unin Indnesia Malaysia Other Ttal Majr Prtein Meals include Cpra, Cttnseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Sybean, and Sunflwer Meal.

27 Table 06: Majr Vegetable Oils: Wrld Supply and Distributin (Cuntry View) Millin Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin Indnesia China Malaysia Eurpean Unin United States Argentina Brazil Other Ttal India Eurpean Unin China United States Pakistan Bangladesh Egypt Philippines Turkey Iran Other Ttal Exprts Indnesia Malaysia Ukraine Argentina Canada Russia Eurpean Unin Other Ttal Dmestic Cnsumptin China Eurpean Unin India United States Indnesia Brazil Malaysia Pakistan Argentina Russia Thailand Mexic Bangladesh Egypt Japan Other Ttal Ending Stcks Indnesia Malaysia China Eurpean Unin United States Other Ttal Majr Vegetable Oils includes Ccnut, Cttnseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Sybean, and Sunflwerseed il.

28 Table 07: Sybeans: Wrld Supply and Distributin Thusand Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin Brazil 86,700 97,200 96, , , ,000 United States 91, , , , , ,483 Argentina 53,400 61,400 56,800 57,800 39,000 56,000 China 11,951 12,154 11,785 12,900 14,200 14,100 India 9,477 8,711 6,929 11,000 9,000 10,800 Paraguay 8,190 8,154 9,217 10,200 10,000 9,800 Canada 5,356 6,045 6,456 6,597 8,000 7,800 Other 16,249 19,365 19,031 20,824 19,981 22,557 Ttal 282, , , , , ,540 China 70,364 78,350 83,230 93,495 97, ,000 Eurpean Unin 13,293 13,914 15,120 13,422 14,100 14,200 Mexic 3,842 3,819 4,126 4,126 4,400 4,650 Japan 2,894 3,004 3,186 3,175 3,250 3,250 Thailand 1,798 2,411 2,798 3,077 3,150 3,225 Egypt 1,694 1,947 1,300 2,115 2,800 2,900 Indnesia 2,241 2,006 2,274 2,649 2,700 2,850 Taiwan 2,335 2,520 2,476 2,566 2,550 2,550 Turkey 1,608 2,197 2,283 2,271 2,300 2,500 Russia 2,048 1,986 2,336 2,221 2,300 2,400 Other 10,951 12,208 14,204 15,207 18,083 18,019 Ttal 113, , , , , ,544 Exprts Brazil 46,829 50,612 54,383 63,137 73,300 72,300 United States 44,594 50,143 52,860 59,157 56,200 62,324 Argentina 7,842 10,575 9,922 7,026 4,200 8,000 Paraguay 4,844 4,576 5,400 6,129 6,250 5,900 Canada 3,469 3,763 4,236 4,591 5,500 5,800 Other 5,144 6,548 5,705 7,502 5,813 7,499 Crush Ttal 112, , , , , ,823 China 68,850 74,500 81,500 88,000 95, ,000 United States 47,192 50,975 51,335 51,742 54,159 54,295 Argentina 36,173 40,235 43,267 43,303 40,725 44,000 Brazil 36,861 40,435 39,747 40,900 43,000 43,200 Eurpean Unin 13,100 14,450 14,950 14,400 14,900 14,900 India 8,700 7,700 5,500 9,000 8,200 9,100 Russia 3,300 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,700 5,100 Mexic 4,030 4,175 4,400 4,600 4,870 5,050 Paraguay 3,550 3,700 3,800 3,750 3,700 3,950 Egypt 1,680 1,950 1,150 2,200 2,600 3,000 Iran 440 1,450 1,950 2,050 2,300 2,420 Blivia 2,250 2,450 2,550 2,050 2,550 2,350 Japan 1,969 2,150 2,283 2,392 2,350 2,300 Pakistan ,250 1,680 2,000 2,300 Taiwan 1,925 1,980 1,980 2,045 2,080 2,100 Other 12,752 14,560 15,362 15,293 16,256 17,272 Ttal 242, , , , , ,337 Ending Stcks Argentina 25,271 31,700 31,600 36,220 28,775 29,685 Brazil 15,820 19,078 18,558 25,473 22,873 21,200 China 13,848 17,009 16,910 20,391 20,641 19,191 United States 2,504 5,188 5,354 8,208 14,430 11,293 Eurpean Unin 1, ,559 1,131 1,073 1,173 Other 3,777 4,096 4,406 4,965 4,372 4,161 Ttal 62,473 77,914 78,387 96,388 92,164 86,703 Mst cuntries are n an Octber/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexic, and Thailand are n a September/August MY. Canada is n an August/July MY. Paraguay is n a Jan/Dec MY.

29 Table 08: Sybean Meal: Wrld Supply and Distributin Thusand Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin China 54,531 59,004 64,548 69,696 75,240 80,784 United States 36,909 40,880 40,525 40,630 42,728 42,864 Argentina 27,892 30,928 33,211 33,280 31,155 33,660 Brazil 28,540 31,300 30,750 31,660 33,400 33,553 Eurpean Unin 10,349 11,416 11,811 11,376 11,771 11,771 India 6,960 6,160 4,400 7,200 6,560 7,280 Russia 2,600 2,837 3,152 3,467 3,704 4,019 Other 22,609 25,997 27,465 28,563 30,752 32,428 Ttal 190, , , , , ,359 Eurpean Unin 18,137 19,623 19,207 18,924 18,500 18,500 Vietnam 3,344 4,311 5,094 4,945 4,800 5,000 Indnesia 3,806 3,902 4,103 4,245 4,400 4,600 Thailand 2,665 3,068 2,433 2,782 2,850 2,880 Philippines 2,335 2,204 2,618 2,660 2,750 2,850 Mexic 1,410 1,795 2,367 1,991 2,100 2,100 Krea, Suth 1,825 1,751 2,118 1,764 1,800 1,900 Japan 1,976 1,699 1,721 1,621 1,650 1,650 Clmbia 1,036 1,148 1,206 1,284 1,425 1,500 Malaysia 1,397 1,465 1,291 1,427 1,525 1,500 Other 19,836 19,719 19,600 18,887 19,078 20,054 Ttal 57,767 60,685 61,758 60,530 60,878 62,534 Exprts Argentina 24,972 28,575 30,333 31,323 29,000 30,500 Brazil 13,948 14,290 15,407 13,762 15,600 15,500 United States 10,504 11,891 10,844 10,524 11,521 11,249 Paraguay 2,428 2,569 2,552 2,407 2,430 2,580 Blivia 1,608 1,674 1,726 1,264 1,690 1,550 Other 7,188 5,405 4,639 5,218 4,571 4,439 Ttal 60,648 64,404 65,501 64,498 64,812 65,818 Dmestic Cnsumptin China 52,534 57,467 62,663 68,646 74,270 79,814 United States 26,775 29,282 30,044 30,299 31,752 31,933 Eurpean Unin 28,042 30,142 30,742 30,342 30,042 29,942 Brazil 15,100 15,700 16,470 16,943 17,480 18,150 Vietnam 4,200 4,750 5,470 5,740 5,960 6,120 Mexic 4,575 5,050 5,700 5,770 5,930 6,080 India 3,640 4,500 4,460 4,857 5,390 5,900 Indnesia 3,800 4,000 4,100 4,254 4,450 4,600 Thailand 4,150 4,100 4,230 4,232 4,300 4,450 Russia 2,500 2,700 3,100 3,250 3,600 4,000 Japan 3,429 3,365 3,458 3,420 3,463 3,390 Iran 2,800 3,000 3,080 3,180 3,280 3,380 Egypt 2,450 2,650 2,850 2,980 3,150 3,350 Argentina 2,100 2,402 2,672 2,853 3,000 3,200 Philippines 2,250 2,400 2,600 2,720 2,850 2,950 Other 28,192 30,054 31,319 32,537 33,982 35,963 Ttal 186, , , , , ,222 Ending Stcks Brazil 2,484 3,812 2,710 3,700 4,050 3,983 Argentina 4,073 4,025 4,231 3,335 2,490 2,450 Eurpean Unin United States Vietnam Other 3,595 4,849 4,651 4,747 4,089 4,070 Ttal 10,811 14,052 13,213 13,094 11,571 11,424 Mst cuntries are n an Octber/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexic and Thailand are n a September/August MY. Canada is n an August/July MY. Paraguay, Vietnam and the Philippines are n a January/December MY and Blivia is n a March/February MY.

30 Table 09: Sybean Oil: Wrld Supply and Distributin Thusand Metric Tns 2013/ / / / /18 May Prductin China 12,335 13,347 14,605 15,770 17,024 18,278 United States 9,131 9,706 9,956 10,035 10,380 10,451 Argentina 6,785 7,687 8,433 8,395 7,875 8,510 Brazil 7,074 7,759 7,627 7,850 8,250 8,290 Eurpean Unin 2,489 2,746 2,841 2,736 2,831 2,831 India 1,566 1, ,620 1,475 1,635 Russia Other 5,252 6,025 6,360 6,594 7,084 7,440 Ttal 45,223 49,301 51,529 53,788 55,761 58,349 India 1,804 2,815 4,269 3,534 3,345 3,550 Bangladesh Algeria Mrcc Peru Clmbia China 1, Krea, Suth Egypt Iran Other 2,894 3,018 2,970 3,002 2,807 2,891 Ttal 9,268 10,034 11,638 10,851 10,227 10,581 Exprts Argentina 4,087 5,094 5,698 5,387 4,675 5,100 Brazil 1,378 1,510 1,550 1,241 1,480 1,325 United States ,017 1,160 1, Eurpean Unin 766 1, Paraguay Russia Blivia Other 1,006 1,073 1,005 1,191 1,109 1,133 Ttal 9,422 11,115 11,769 11,255 10,657 10,961 Dmestic Cnsumptin China 13,650 14,200 15,350 16,350 17,300 18,450 United States 8,576 8,600 9,145 9,009 9,389 9,661 Brazil 5,705 6,265 6,330 6,610 6,890 6,980 India 3,300 4,100 5,200 5,300 5,100 5,200 Argentina 2,844 2,401 2,840 2,985 3,255 3,418 Eurpean Unin 1,990 2,040 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,245 Mexic ,020 1,100 1,100 1,125 Bangladesh , ,029 Egypt Algeria Iran Pakistan Mrcc Krea, Suth Clmbia Other 4,797 4,976 5,028 5,158 5,330 5,544 Ttal 45,257 47,775 52,083 53,587 55,629 57,917 Ending Stcks United States China Eurpean Unin Brazil Argentina Other 1,634 1,796 1,769 1,475 1,103 1,081 Ttal 3,918 4,363 3,678 3,475 3,177 3,229 Mst cuntries are n an Octber/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexic is n a September/August MY. Paraguay and Peru are n an January/December MY and Blivia is n a March/February MY.