The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018 (WNISR2018)

Transcription

1 The World Industry Status Report 218 () Mycle Schneider Independent Interna*onal Consultant on Energy and Policy, Paris WNISR Convening Lead Author and Publisher Power: Asset or Barrier for the Energy TransiGon? Heinrich Böll S*Cung EU Greens-EFA in the European Parliament Representa9on of the State of to the EU, 5 February 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting 1

2 GLOBAL OVERVIEW WORLD FLEET Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to Reactor Startups China Rest of the World Reactor Shutdowns All Countries (No Chinese in Total) Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting 2

3 EU28 STARTUPS AND SHUTDOWNS Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28 in Units, from 1956 to Yearly Balance Reactor Startups Reactor Shutdowns Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting

4 GLOBAL OVERVIEW WORLD FLEET Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the World in Units and GWe, from 1954 to 1/219 5 Units 4 Operable capacity Reactors in Operation Operating Capacity GWe 42 Reactors 26 Maximum Operating Capacity: 368 GWe 22 Maximum Number of Reactors: 438 1/ GWe 415 Reactors GWe /18 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting 4

5 EU28 OPERATING REACTORS/CAPACITY Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 218 Units 15 1 Operable capacity Reactors in Operation Operating Capacity GWe Reactors Maximum Number of Reactors: Maximum Operating Capacity: GWe 12/ GWe 126 Reactors GWe Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting

6 GLOBAL OVERVIEW ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER Electricity Production In the World... in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net) Share in % Maximum : 17.5% Share Electricity Production 26 Maximum: 2,66 TWh 217 Production: 2,53 TWh Share: 1.3% TWh 25 China Rest of the World Since 214, without China's contribution, world nuclear production has declined. In 217, it increased by 1% globally, but fell by.4% outside China TWh Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 6

7 GLOBAL OVERVIEW NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION (Top 21) Production in 216/217 and Historic Maximum in TWh and Share In Electricity Production TWh Percentage USA France France 25 Ukraine 215 China Russia Slovakia Hungary South Korea Belgium Canada Sweden 1996 Ukraine Slovenia Germany Bulgaria UK Switzerland Sweden Finland Spain Czech Rep Belgium Armenia 29 India South Korea Japan Spain 1989 Czech Rep. USA 1995 Finland UK Taiwan Russia Historic Maximum 1998 Historic Maximum Year 27 Switzerland Hungary South Africa Bulgaria Mycle Schneider Consulting 7 Romania Canada Germany Taiwan Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 218

8 GLOBAL OVERVIEW CONSTRUCTIONS Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting 8

9 GLOBAL OVERVIEW CONSTRUCTIONS Reactors Under Construc2on (as of 1 July 218) Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 9

10 GLOBAL OVERVIEW CONSTRUCTION TIMES Reactor Construc-on Times of 55 Units Started-up 28 7/218 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 1

11 CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELATIONS GLOBAL OVERVIEW CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CHINA Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting 11

12 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 219 Mycle Schneider Consulting

13 GLOBAL OVERVIEW OPERATING AGE Age of World Fleet as of 1 July Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over reactors Mean Age: 29.9 years 77 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 13

14 EU28 OPERATING AGE Age of EU Fleet as of 1 July Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over reactors Mean Age: 33.4 years 12 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting

15 US FOCUS 18 EARLY CLOSURES ANNOUNCED Sources: Various sources compiled by WNISR Mycle Schneider Consulting 15

16 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹) Utility Scale Solar (²) Gas - Combined Cycle Coal 15 2% 1-8% Lazard LCOE Versions % -86% -67% Sources: Lazard Es)mates, 217 Mycle Schneider Consulting 16

17 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT, Solar and Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World Capacity Added Since 2 in GWe net Solar (excl. LTO) Annual Production Compared to 1997 in TWh/year Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 17

18 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT, Solar and Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU Capacity Added Since 2 in GWe net Solar (excl. LTO) Annual Production Compared to 1997 in TWh/year Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 18

19 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT, Solar and Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World Capacity in GWe (excl. LTO) Solar Electricity Production in TWh/year Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 19

20 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT, Solar and Developments in the United States Annual Production Compared to 2 in net added TWh Solar Annual Production in net TWh Solar Sources: DOE-EIA, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 2

21 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Power Generation in the World Annual Production Compared to 27 in added TWh by Source Non-hydro renewables Hydro Coal Gas Oil >3 > Sources: BP StaBsBcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 21

22 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Installed, Solar and Capacity and Production in China Capacity in GWe Solar Production in TWh/year Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaDsDcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 22

23 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Installed, Solar and Capacity and Production in India Capacity in GWe Solar Production in TWh/year Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP StaEsEcal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 23

24 CONCLUSIONS Small increase of nuclear power due to China. Long-term decline of nuclear power s role con@nues. Cost differen@al between nuclear and renewables s@ll increases. Nine of 31 nuclear countries generate more power with renewables than nuclear. power capacity addi@ons are insignificant in global market (1 GW/257 GW net in 217). power becomes irrelevant. Reactor construc@on starts down from 15 in 21 to 5 in 218; no commercial reactor building started in China since 216. power is a species on way of ex@nc@on. Renewal rate too small for survival. Decommissioning in early stages, only 1 of 174 closed sites at greenfield status. New-build and increasingly exis@ng nuclear is more expensive ( /MWh) than solar/wind and is therefore contribu@ng to climate change. Exis@ng nuclear is a very powerful innova@on barrier see Germany vs. Japan. Mycle Schneider Consulting 24

25 ThankYou! Contact: Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In , he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 24 and 29 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France. From 2 to 21 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 15 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 3+ years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 2 universities and engineering schools in 1 countries. Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs. In 1997, he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award ( Alternative Nobel Prize ). Mycle Schneider Consulting