The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 Free download at

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1 The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 215 Free download at Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris, France Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) The Economicsof Nuclear Energy Workshop Johannesburg, 9 March 216 WWF, Heinrich BöllFoundation, Center for Renewable & Sustainable Energy Studies, Goedgedacht Forum Johannesburg, 9 March 216

2 4 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 January Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

3 4 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 January Reactor Startups China Rest of the World Reactor Shutdowns All countries (no Chinese in Total) Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

4 18 16 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28 in units, from 1956 to 1 January Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

5 14 ReactorStartups and Shutdownsin the US in units, from 1956 to 1 January Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

6 Misleading Official Information on World Reactor Fleet Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 27 February 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

7 Misleading Official Information on Japan s Reactor Fleet Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 27 February 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

8 Milliers TWh Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program 1963 to 214 Fleet (in Units) and Electricity Generation (in TWh) Reactors in LTO Reactors in Operation Electricity Production Number of Reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

9 The WNISR214 Establishes New Reactor Status Category: Long-Term Outage or LTO A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO) if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR. 41 reactors worldwide in LTO - 4 in Japan, shut down between 1995 and in Sweden (Oskarshamn-2), shut down in June 213 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

10 GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 January GWe 42 reactors Number of Reactors 438 reactors GWe 398 reactors Reactors in operation Operable capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

11 GWe NuclearReactors& Net Operating Capacity in the US in GWe, from 1957 to 1 January 216 Reactors in operation Operable capacity 18 reactors 1.5 GW Number of Reactors 98.5 GW 99 reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

12 GWe Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 January 216 Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity 123 GWe 177 reactors GW 128 reactors Number of Reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

13 % Nuclear Electricity Production in the World in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross) TWh 4 2% 15% max 17.6% max 2,66 TWh 2,41 TWh % % 1 5 % % Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

14 TWh Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 214/213/Historic Maximum (in TWh) Historic Maximum USA France Russia South Korea China Canada Germany Ukraine Sweden UK Spain Taiwan India Belgium Czech Rep. Switzerland Finland Bulgaria Hungary South Africa Brazil Slovakia Romania Mexico Slovenia Argentina Pakistan Netherlands Iran Armenia Japan Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

15 Number of Construction Starts per Year Construction Starts of Nuclear Reactors in the World by year, January 216 (in Units) 11 Cancelled or Suspended Completed Under Construction Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

16 Number of Construction Starts per Year Construction Starts of Nuclear Reactors in the World by year, January 216 (in Units) 44 China Other countries Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

17 Reactors Under Construction in the World (1 July 215) Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

18 Years Average Annual Construction Times in the World July (by grid connection date) Size proportional to number of reactors Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

19 Construction Times (in years) Startups between 25 and July 215 Country Units Mean Time Min Max China India South Korea Japan Russia Argentina Iran Pakistan Romania Total Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

20 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

21 Is Dismantling Reactors the Future of Westinghouse? * Early Closures Accelerate Recent Cases from the US and Sweden Shutdown Relicensed Reason Age U.S. Crystal River-3: 29 Underway Containment damage 22 San Onofre-2 and -3: 212 Yes Steam gen. damage 28/29 Kewaunee 213 Yes Economics 39 Vermont Yankee 214 Yes Economics 42 Pilgrim 217? Yes Economics (45) Fitzpatrick 216/17 Yes Economics (41/42) Sweden Oskarshamn-1 215? Upgraded Economics (44) Oskarshamn Upgrade halted Economics 39 Ringhals-1 22 Upgraded Economics (46) Ringhals Upgraded Economics (45) Sources: Various, compiled by MSC; *bizjournals.com, 2 Nov. 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

22 Traditional Utilities Under Pressure The 2 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the 1 trillion stock market value since 28, some a lot more. Europe s electricity providers face an existential threat. The Economist, London, October 213 Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level. Navigant Research, Boulder, USA, August 214 A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of the large-scale utilities. Institute for Public Policy Research, London, September 214 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

23 French Nuclear Companies in Trouble EDF World s Largest Nuclear Power Operator 4.5%/a operating cost increase à Loss of 1.5 billion in 212 à Need for significant tariff increases Stock value plunged 89% since 27 High debt 37.4bn for turnover of 75bn AREVA Global Leader in Nuclear Energy Technically bankrupt Loss of 2bn in 215 ( 1bn in 5 years) High debt 6.3bn for revenues of 4.2bn Stock value plunged by 95% since 27 Standard & Poor s downgraded AREVA shares to BB+ ( junk ) in November 214 and again to BB- in March 215 Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor s Johannesburg, 9 March 216

24 Stock Price Development EDF vs. CAC CAC4 EDF Source: 27 February 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

25 Stock Price DevelopmentAREVA vs. EURO STOXX EURO STOXX 5 AREVA Source: 27 February 216 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

26 Hinkley Point C: EDF s Waterloo in the Making? Investment bank Investec has advised clients to sell shares in French energy group EDF amid fears that its connection with the nuclear plant at Hinkley Point C could put payouts to shareholders under threat. This is Money, 25 October EDF Actionnariat salarié(eas) said in a statement that the interests of EDF are gravely threatened by the Hinkley Point project, which it calls "a financial catastrophyforetold ( ). EAS asks the management of EDF to stop this risky project, whose financial risks are to big for our company and which could put EDF's very survival at risk. Reuters, 12 November 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

27 EDF s response to these concerns, and that of the governments backing the projects, has essentially been: Trust us. But it is no longer enough simply to assert confidence in the project s merits. It is time for both EDF and the British government to face up to the difficulties besetting Hinkley Point and to outline alternatives. ( ) Mr Piquemal s resignation makes it ever harder to defend a deal whose flaws have become increasingly apparent. It is time to move on. Johannesburg, 9 March 216

28 Source: Rosatom, January 213 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

29 Russian Nuclear Industry Performance Domestic Projects 3 units completed in 1 years after average of 28 years building. All 8 units under construction delayed; 2 units for 3+ years. Kursk-5 abandoned in 212 after 27 years of construction. Baltic-1 at Kaliningrad abandoned in 213 after 1 year. Foreign Projects 2 units at Belene, Bulgaria, first Russian Project in the EU, abandoned in 212 after 27 years of construction. 1 unit at Busheer, Iran started up after 36 years of construction. 1 unit at Kudankulam, India started up after 11 years, second unit still under construction after 12 years. 2 units at Mochovce, Slovakia, still under construction after 3 years, 2 billion over budget (since 28). Projects delayed or abandoned in Bangladesh, Czech Republic, Vietnam, Turkey to name a few. Credit Rating Atomenergoprom downgraded to junk by Moody s in Feb. 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

30 The sections [in the World Nuclear Industry Status Report] on prospective nuclear countries and the delays to the construction of reactors are also comprehensive and relatively fair. Steve Kidd is an independent nuclear consultant and economist with 17 years of work in senior positions at the World Nuclear Association and its predecessor organisation, the Uranium Institute., while it is true that even the Chinese programme is suffering some delays. Source: Nuclear Engineering International, September214 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

31 Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

32 TWh/ Variations in Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 in the EU from Wind, Solar and Nuclear (in TWh) Wind 198 Nuclear 1 Solar Source: IAEA-PRIS, BP, MSC 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

33 GWe Wind Solar Nuclear Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity in China (in GWe) ,3 6, ,1,3, Source: EPIC, IAEA-PRIS, GWEC 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

34 TWh/y Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear in China (in TWh/year) Wind Nuclear Solar Source: BP 215, IAEA-PRIS 215 Johannesburg, 9 March 216

35 TWh Wind, Solar and Nuclear Production in India (in TWh) Wind Solar Nuclear ,,3, Johannesburg, 9 March 216

36 Concluding Remarks Nuclear power has passed its historic maximum for most of the indicators: operating reactors, electricity generation, reactors under construction, new construction sites, etc. Nuclear s position in the power market is increasingly threatened by a shrinking client base, increasing production costs, stagnating electricity consumption, and ferocious competitors, especially from the renewable energy sector. Nuclear industry companies and utilities are struggling with high debt loads, shrinking profit margins and decreasing prices on the wholesale power market. Johannesburg, 9 March 216

37 ThankYou! Contact: Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In , he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 24 and 29 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France. From 2 to 21 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 14 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 26 years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 2 universities and engineering schools in 1 countries. Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs. In 1997 he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award ( Alternative Nobel Prize ).