WNISR2018 PRÉAMBULE. Falls die Titelseite Fragen aufwerfen sollte... NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 2018 THE WORLD

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1 PRÉAMBULE A Mycle Schneider Consulting Project Paris, London, September 218 Falls die Titelseite Fragen aufwerfen sollte... THE WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 218

2 The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 218 (WNISR218) Mycle Schneider Interna'onaler Energie- und Atompoli'k-Berater, Paris Hauptautor und Herausgeber des WNISR Atomtage Karlsruhe, 21. September 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 2 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

3 ÜBERSICHT BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 July Yearly Balance Reactor Startups Reactor Shutdowns / Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 3

4 ÜBERSICHT BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 July Reactor Startups China Rest of the World Reactor Shutdowns All Countries (No Chinese in Total) / Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 4 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

5 EU BETRIEBSAUFNAHMEN UND ABSCHALTUNGEN Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28 in Units, from 1956 to 1 July Yearly Balance Reactor Startups Reactor Shutdowns / Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

6 ÜBERSICHT IRREFÜHRENDE OFFIZIELLE STATISTIKEN 1 Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 2 September 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 6 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

7 ÜBERSICHT IRREFÜHRENDE OFFIZIELLE STATISTIKEN 1 Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 2 September 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 7 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

8 JAPAN FOCUS Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program to July 218 Nuclear Capacity in GW Electricity Generation in TWh Generation 2 3 Capacity /18 8 Sources: Various sources, compiled by WNISR, 218

9 ÜBERBLICK LONG-TERM OUTAGE (LTO) WNISR Definition von LTO A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO), if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR Reactors in LTO as of 1 July reactors in Japan, shut down between 27 and 213. Only 9 operating. 2 reactors in India (Kakrapar-1 & Kakrapar-2) 1 reactor in Argentina (Embalse) 1 reactor in France (Paluel-2) 1 reactor in China (CEFR) 1 reactor in Taiwan (Chinshan-1) 9

10 ÜBERSICHT REAKTOREN UND KAPAZITÄT IN BETRIEB Nuclear Nuclear Reactors Reactors and Net and Net Operating Capacity in the in in the World World in Units in Units in and Units and GWe, and from GWe, 1954 from 1954 to 1 July to 1 July Units Units Units Reactors Reactors in Operation in Operation Reactors in Operation Operating Operating Capacity Capacity Operating Capacity WNISR WNISR - Mycle - Mycle Schneider Schneider Consulting Consulting GWe 312 GWe 312 GWe 42 Reactors 42 Reactors 42 Reactors Maximum Maximum Operating Operating Capacity: 368 Capacity: GWe GWe GWe 7/218 7/218 7/ GWe 363 GWe GWe Maximum Maximum Number Number 413 Reactors 413 Reactors Maximum Number 413 Reactors of Reactors: of Reactors: of Reactors: 438 GWe GWe GWe / /18 GW 1954 GW /18 GW 1 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

11 EU REAKTOREN UND KAPAZITÄT IN BETRIEB Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 1 July 218 Units 15 1 Reactors in Operation Operating Capacity GWe Reactors Maximum Number of Reactors: Maximum Operating Capacity: GWe 7/ GWe 125 Reactors GWe /18 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 11 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

12 ÜBERSICHT STROMPRODUKTION UND ANTEIL ATOM Nuclear Electricity Production In the World... in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net) Share in % Maximum : 17.5% Nuclear Share Nuclear Electricity Production 26 Maximum: 2,66 TWh 217 Production: 2,53 TWh Share: 1.3% TWh 25 China Rest of the World Since 214, without China's contribution, world nuclear production has declined. In 217, it increased by 1% globally, but fell by.4% outside China TWh Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 218

13 ÜBERSICHT STROMPRODUKTION UND ANTEIL ATOM (Top 21) Nuclear Production in 216/217 and Historic Maximum in TWh and Share In Electricity Production TWh Percentage USA France France 25 Ukraine 215 China Russia Slovakia Hungary South Korea Belgium Canada Sweden 1996 Ukraine Slovenia Germany Bulgaria UK Switzerland Sweden Finland Spain Czech Rep Belgium Armenia 29 India South Korea Japan Spain 1989 Czech Rep. USA 1995 Finland UK Taiwan Russia Historic Maximum 1998 Historic Maximum Year 27 Switzerland Hungary South Africa Romania Canada Germany Bulgaria Taiwan 1988 Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP,

14 ÜBERSICHT REAKTOREN IM BAU 14 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 217

15 ÜBERSICHT REAKTOREN IM BAU Nuclear Reactors Under Construc2on (as of 1 July 218) Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 15 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

16 ÜBERSICHT BAUZEITEN Reactor Construc-on Times of 53 Units Started-up 28 7/218 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 16 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

17 ÜBERSICHT ANZAHL NEUBAUSTARTS 17 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

18 ÜBERSICHT ANZAHL NEUBAUSTARTS UND CHINA 18 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

19 ÜBERSICHT ALTERSSTRUKTUR WELT Age of World Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over reactors Mean Age: 29.9 years 77 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 19 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

20 ÜBERSICHT ALTERSSTRUKTUR EU28 Age of EU Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and More reactors Mean Age: 33.4 years 12 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

21 STATUS REPORT DECOMMISSIONING Overview of Decommissioning Status in Six Selected Countries Sources: Various, compiled by WNISR

22 DECOMMISSIONING STATUS REPORT Sources: WNISR and IAEA-PRIS,

23 ZIVIL-MILITÄRISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEITEN Atomwaffenstaaten haben die ambi7oniertesten Neubauprojekte. Es gibt keine globale oder regionale Militärmacht, die nicht auch eine zivile AtomkraOgeschichte hat. Kein Land mit AtomkraO-Moratorium oder Auss7egspoli7k ist Atomwaffe, oder Atom- U-Boote oder Plane solche zu erwerben. Sources: Andy S7rling, Phil Johnstone, WNISR, with WNA, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 23 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

24 ZIVIL-MILITÄRISCHE ABHÄNGIGKEITEN ALS MOTIF? Die Verbindungen zwischen zivilen und militärischen Aspekten von Atomanlagen und SpaltmaterialprodukEon sind bestens bekannt (z.b. von Plutonium, hoch angereichertem Uran, TriEum). Neu ist: die gegenseiegen Abhängigkeiten, z.b. in der Atom-U-Boot- Industrie, die als unabdingbar für einen Sitz im UNO Sicherheitsrat angesehen wird. In den letzten zwei Jahren: mehrere Berichte, die auf die Beibehaltung einer zivilen Atomindustrie drängen mit der Begründung dies sei im Interesse der naeonalen Sicherheit (z.b. Ernest Moniz in USA; Roll Royce in GB; Bericht für Nicolas Hulot in FR).

25 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT - INVESTITIONEN Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power in US$ billion, Other Renewables Solar Wind Nuclear Sources: FS-UNEP/BNEF 218 and WNISR Original Research

26 INVESTITIONEN IN ERNEUERBARE TOP TEN Top 1 Countries for Renewable Energy Investment in US$ billion China (*) USA (*) Japan India (*) Germany Australia UK Brazil (*) Mexico Sweden (*) Updated data for 215, 216 and 217 from FS-UNEP 218 Report Sources: FS-UNEP /BNEF, 218, 217,

27 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World Capacity Added Since 2 in GWe net 22 Wind Solar Nuclear Nuclear (excl. LTO) Annual Production Compared to 1997 in TWh/year Nuclear Wind Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta;s;cal Review

28 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Wind, Solar and Nuclear Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World Capacity in GWe Nuclear 37 Nuclear (excl. LTO) Solar Wind Electricity Production in TWh/year Nuclear Wind Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta:s:cal Review

29 FOSSILE, ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT PRODUKTION Power Generation in the World Annual Production Compared to 27 in added TWh by Source Non-hydro renewables Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear >3 > Sources: BP Sta7s7cal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 29 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

30 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in China Capacity in GWe Nuclear Wind Solar Production in TWh/year Nuclear Wind Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta;s;cal Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 3 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

31 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in India Capacity in GWe Nuclear 1 Wind 25 Solar Production in TWh/year Nuclear Wind Solar Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Sta;s;cal Review

32 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU Capacity Added Since 2 in GWe net Nuclear Wind Solar Nuclear -19 (excl. LTO) Annual Production Compared to 1997 in TWh/year Nuclear Solar Wind Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 32 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

33 SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN Sehr bescheidener ProdukBonsansBeg von Atomstrom, im Wesentlichen wegen Chinas Programm. Weiterhin AbsBeg der Rolle von AtomkraM im Strommix. Kostenvorteil der Erneuerbaren wächst weiter. Neun von 31 Atomenergie nutzenden Länder produzieren mehr Strom mit Erneuerbaren als mit AtomkraM. NeSoansBeg der installierten AKW-Kapazität ist vernachlässigbar im Rahmen des gesamten Marktes (1 GW von 257 GW in 217). Schrumpfen der Neubaustarts: 15 in 21, 5 in 217, 3 en 218; kein kommerzieller Neubaubeginn in China seit Dezember 216. Demontage und Abriss in den Anfängen. Nur 1 von 173 abgeschalteten Reaktoren bis green field Status zurückgebaut. MoBvaBonen für Weiterbetrieb oder Neubau unklar. Zivil-militärische Abhängigkeiten als eine der treibenden KräMe möglich. 33

34 AIEA : RISQUES D UN DÉCLIN New IAEA Energy Projections See Possible Shrinking Role for Nuclear Power AIEA, 1 septembre 218 Nuclear power s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industry struggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.

35 Anhänge 35

36 GLOBAL OVERVIEW CONSTRUCTION TIMES Average Annual ConstructionTimes in the World from 1954 to 1 July 218 by Grid Connection Date Number of Reactors Duration in Years / Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

37 CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELLATIONS Abandoned Reactor Constructions from 197 to 1 July 218 in Units by Cancellation Year and Country Japan - 1 N. Korea - 1 Philippines - 1 Taïwan - 2 Iran - 1 Russia - 12 Ukraine - 6 Lithuania - 1 Poland - 2 Bulgaria - 2 Romania - 3 Czech Rep. - 2 Austria - 1 Germany - 6 Italy - 3 Spain - 4 Sweden - 1 Cuba - 2 Brazil - 1 USA - 42 Total North America Latin America Europe Asia and Middle East 37 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA, and various sources, 218

38 FRANCE FOCUS Unavailability of French Nuclear Reactors in 218 Maximum number of reactors offline for each week during the first half-year in Units and Capacity Units 25 2 French Nuclear Fleet: 58 Reactors / 63.1 GW Reactors offline Capacity 19.7 GW 18 Units 22.6 GW 2 Units 22.4 GW 2 Units GW /1 8/1 15/1 22/1 29/1 5/2 12/2 19/2 26/2 5/3 12/3 19/3 26/3 2/4 9/4 16/4 23/4 3/4 7/5 14/5 21/5 28/5 4/6 11/6 18/6 25/6 38 Sources: EDF, 218

39 GLOBAL OVERVIEW CLOSURE AGE Age of Shutdown Nuclear Reactors in the World as of 1 July Reactor Age Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over reactors Mean Age: 25.3 years 2 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 39 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218

40 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: U.S., France Age of French Nuclear Fleet Age of US Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July 218 as of 1 July reactors (1 in LTO) 99 reactors Mean Age: 33.4 Mean years Age: 38.1 years Reactor Age Reactor 11 2 Age Years Years Years Years Years Years and Years Over 5 Number 41 Years of Reactors and Over 5by Age Number Class of Reactors by Age Class 1 in LTO Age of French Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July reactors (1 in LTO) Mean Age: 33.4 years in LTO Reactor Age 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS, 218 4

41 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: EU, U.K. Age of EU Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July 218 Age of EU Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July Age of UK Nuclear Fleet Age as of 1 EU July Nuclear 218 Fleet as of 1 July reactors Mean Age: 33.4 years 125 reactors Mean Age: 33.4 years reactors 125 Mean reactors Age: Mean 34.4 Age: years 33.4 years Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over 5 Number of Reactors Reactor by Age Age Class 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Reactor Age Reactor Age 21 3 Years Years Years Years Years and Over 21 3 Years 5 Number of Reactors 31 4 by Age Years Class 41 Years and Over 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS,

42 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: Japan, China Age of Japanese Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July in operation 4 1 Age of Chinese Fleet reactors (26 in LTO) Mean Age: 28 years 1 3 Reactor Age 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class as of 1 July in LTO Reactor Age reactors (1 in LTO) 8 1 Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Mean Age: 7.1 years 3 Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS,

43 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REACTOR FLEETS: Russia Age of Russian Nuclear Fleet as of 1 July Reactor Age Years 11 2 Years 21 3 Years 31 4 Years 41 Years and Over 7 37 reactors Mean Age: 29.7 years 5 Number of Reactors by Age Class Sources: WNISR with IAEA-PRIS,

44 FRANCE RÉPARTITION DES ÂGES Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 218

45 PAYS NEWCOMER POTENTIELS Sources: Various, compiled by WNISR, 218

46 US FOCUS 18 EARLY CLOSURES Sources: Various sources compiled by WNISR 46

47 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU in 217 by Energy Source in GWe Wind PV 6. Other Renewables Natural Gas Fuel Oil Nuclear -7.5 Coal 47 Sources: WindEurope, WNISR, 218

48 FOCUS ALLEMAGNE Main Evolution of the German Power System between 21 and 217 in TWh Nuclear Reduction -64 Fossil Fuel Reduction -28 Nuclear and Fossil Fuel Generation Reductions as well as Export Increase... Net Export Increase 37 Consumption Decrease are Covered by Consumption Decrease and Renewable Production Increase Renewables Increase Sources WNISR, based on AGEB 218

49 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Regional Breakdown of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Investments in US$ Billion, Renewable Nuclear Asia (excl. China and India) India China Middle East and Africa Europe Americas (exclu. US and Brazil) Brazil US Sources: FS-UNEP,BNEF 218 and WNISR Original Research 49

50 NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹) Wind Utility Scale Solar (²) Gas - Combined Cycle Coal Nuclear 15 2% 1-8% Lazard LCOE Versions % -86% -67% Sources: Lazard Es)mates, 217 5

51 ERNEUERBARE UND ATOMKRAFT KAPAZITÄT/PRODUKTION Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments in the United States Annual Production Compared to 2 in net added TWh 26 1 Nuclear Wind Solar Annual Production in net TWh Nuclear Wind Solar Sources: DOE-EIA, 218 Mycle Schneider Consulting 51 Karlsruhe, 21. September 218