SEGMENTS SUPPLIED FAT SOLUTIONS BAKERY SAUCES & DRESSINGS DAIRY MARGARINE FRYING ICE-CREAM CONFECTIONERY TECHNICAL ANIMAL FEED BOTTLING

Transcription

1

2 SPECIALITY FAT SOLUTIONS SEGMENTS SUPPLIED DAIRY SAUCES & DRESSINGS BAKERY MARGARINE FRYING CONFECTIONERY ICE-CREAM TECHNICAL ANIMAL FEED BOTTLING

3 SPECIALITY FATS MARGARINE HARD-STOCK FATS & LIQUID OILS Our product portfolio of vegetable oils & fats are well positioned to offer hard-stocks fats as well as liquid oils. INDUSTRIAL PASTRY CAKE CREAM LIQUID CONSUMER WRAPPER TUB

4 SPECIALITY FATS CONFECTIONERY WIDE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO CHOCOLATE SPREADS FILLING FATS CBE/CBI/CBR/CBS COCOABUTTER EQUIVALENTS (CBE) COCOABUTTER IMPROVERS (CBI) COCOABUTTER REPLACERS (CBR) COCOABUTTER SUBSTITUTES (CBS) FILLING FATS BAKERY FAT CARAMEL FAT NUT ROASTING OIL BARRIER FATS

5 SPECIALITY FATS CONFECTIONERY FILLING FATS MILK FILLING CHOCOLATE BARS / PRALINES COOLING EFFECT FILLING COOLING SENSATION CREAM FILLING SOFT, LIGHT & FLAVOURED PRODUCED WITH OLENEX CH 4098 RSPO SG PRODUCED WITH OLENEX FF 5050 RSPO SG PRODUCED WITH OLENEX FF 5200 RSPO SG

6 SUSTAINABILITY A NEW OLENEX INITIATIVE.

7 PROJECT NAME MARIPOSA FRIENDS OF SUSTAINABLE PALM FROM LATIN AMERICA.

8 PARTNERSHIP & SOLIDARITY FRIENDS OF SUSTAINABLE PALM FROM LATAM. EMBRACING PARTNERSHIP We embrace partnership and believe that, as partners, we can make a difference and change the industry from within.

9 JOIN & MAKE THE CHANGE. CONTACT US OR YOUR SALES REPRESENTATIVE.

10 CUSTOMER SERVICE LOGISTICS & PARTNERSHIP OLENEX PRODUCTS DELIVERED, SEAMLESS & COST EFFECTIVE WHS LOGISTICS FULLY INTEGRATED SERVICE PARTNER FOR INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACT

11 olenex.com

12 Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of Vegetable Oils Presentation Slides for Olenex Event Meet & Greet on 22 Nov 2018 Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals Feel free to contact me for assistance at Company Profil and Services ISTA Mielke GmbH publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information Providing monthly and quarterly world supply and demand balances Daily, weekly and monthly publications. We offer our services to you. If we can be assistance, feel free to Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de Take a free 3-week trial at 2 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1

13 OUTLINE of the Presentation Impacts of the USA China Trade War World Supply and Demand of Soybeans and Products The Outlook for Rapeseed and Other Oilseeds Challenges in the Palm Oil Industry and Longer Term Supply Threats Update on Biodiesel Lauric Oils The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils and Oilmeals Conclusions 3 Palm oil under pressure sinceapril on - higher production - declining world imports -hugestocks(as ofnov 1 Indonesia5.6 Mn vs3.7, Malaysia 2.7 Mn vs2.2) Indonesian palm oil pricesfelltoa 12-year low of US-$ 443 in mid- Nov 2018, about US-$ 240 below a year ago. Is this the low? Weekly Prices of Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 19 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 2

14 Weekly Prices of Soya Oil Arg., fob (US-$/T) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov Trade War between China and the USA China retaliated US import taxesbyimplementing25% dutyon impofus soybeans Big priceimpactin theus! But China cannot satisfy its soybean import demand from non-us origins Imports of Soybeans (Mn T) 100 China 90 Rest of world /99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 6 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 3

15 Impacts of the Trade War China -USA The growthtrendin Chinese soybean crushislikelytobe interruptedin 2018/19. This will have major repercussionson worldwide - soybean crushings - and on availability ofsoyaoilandmeal Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T) U.S.A. China EU-28 Brazil 80 Argentina /99 00/01 02/03 04/05 08/09 06/07 12/13 10/11 14/15 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 16/17 18/19F /92 CHINA, PR: Soya Meal Consumption Change from a year before -- in Mn T 94/95 00/01 06/07 12/13 97/98 03/04 09/10 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 18/19F 15/16 8 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 4

16 The prospective sharply reduced growth in the world soybean crush (due tothedeclinein China) isresultingin a corresponding slowdown in production and supplies of soya mealandoil, particularlyin Oct/March 2018/19. This is an important price-making factor SOYA MEAL: World Disappearance Year-On-Year Change (Mn T) 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 9 China: trade diversification More than90% of itssoya protein must be imported In 2018/19 China will be stepping up oilseed meal imports China starts joint ventures in soybeancrushplants in South America. US soybean crush is currently running at close to full capacity Trade War Impacts on Oilmeals CHINA, PR : Imports of Oilmeals (1000 T) October / September 18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 Soybean meal 600* Groundnut meal 30* Sunflower meal 400* Rapeseed meal 1600* Cornglutenfeed 65* Palmkern meal 700* Copra meal * Fish meal * Total * Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 5

17 Trade War Impacts on Oils & Fats China will raise importsofsoyaoiland palmoilto compensate smaller domestic production resulting from reduced soybean crushings CHINA, PR.: Imports of Major Veg.Oils (1000 T) October / September 18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 Soybean oil * Groundnut oil * Sunflower oil * Rapeseed oil * Palm oil * Palmkern oil * Coconut oil * Total * The Global Oilseed Outlook in 2018/19 Unusually strong world demand Growing importance of soybean worldwide and further big growth ahead In past30 yearsworld soybean imports doubled every 10 years 10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T) Soybeans Other 9 oilseeds /01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F 12 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 6

18 Outlook 2018/19: World Production: +25 Mn T Stocks by15 Mn T Assumptions: 1) normal weather and 2) China US trade war Crop estimates 18/19: USA 125* (vs 120) Brazil 122* (vs 121) Argent. 51* (vs 35) India 10.6* (vs 8.3) World 366* (vs 341) /99 SOYBEANS World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) 00/01 Production Harvested Area 04/05 08/09 12/13 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 16/17 18/19F 13 Actual US soybean production could be even higher Significant supply surplusin 2018/19 and burdensome ending stocks on the assumption ofaboutnormal weatherin South America in the next 4-6 months U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t 18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Op. stocks Crop (a) Imports * Exports * Crushings * Other use 3.65* End. stocks * Stocks/usage 25.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.0% 4.9% (a) OIL WORLD estimate versus the official Mn T Equivalent to 992 million bushel! 14 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 7

19 SOYBEANS : World Exports ( Mn T ) September / August Sept / Dec 18/19F 17/18 16/ F 2017 Argentina 11.60* * 1.75 Brazil 79.70* * Paraguay 6.15* * 1.11 Uruguay 3.26* *.54 Subtotal * * U.S.A * * Canada 5.53* * 3.06 Ukraine 2.20* * 1.23 Oth. c tries 2.54* *.84 World * * Soybean Stocks, end-august (Mn T) World USA F 16 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 8

20 1100 CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu) January 2019 position Daily futures 50-day moving average 800 Feb18 Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily futures from 1 Feb 2018 until 21 Nov CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb) Dec day moving average 27 Oct Nov DecJa18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov Ja16 May Sep Ja17 May Sep Ja18 May Aug Nov Daily share from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov CBOT : Daily Soya Oil Share in % of total product value Nearest forward position CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST) Dec day moving average 300 Oct NovDecJa18FebMar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 9

21 Decliningtrendin rapeseed area and production in many countries Output in Mn T: EU : 19.6 (21.9) Ukr: 2.8 (2.4) Canada 21.0 (21.3) China only 4.8 Australia (3.7) Rapeoilpricesin Rott currentlyat855 US$ versus soyaoil730, sun oil665 andpalm oil RAPESEED & CANOLA World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Harvested Area 15 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19 Daily RME, Rapeseed Oil Prices & Spread (US-$/T) Rape oil, Dutch (y1) RME/Rape Oil Spread (y2) RME, fob ARA (y1) Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov Prices from Jan 2017 until 20 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 10

22 Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe fob ARA -- in US-$/T RME SME Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov Prices from 6 Jan 2017 until 20 November 2018 Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe fob ARA -- in US-$/T SME PME Aug17 Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov Daily prices from Aug 2017 until Nov 20, Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T) Rape oil Soya oil Sun oil Palm oil, crude Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Daily prices from 1 Jan 2018 until 20 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 11

23 Considerably higher than expected crops harvestedin Ukraine andrussia. Output in Mn T: Ukraine: 15.5 (13.5) Russia: 11.6 (11.0) Eu-28: 9.6 (vs. 10.0) Argentina 3.8 (3.4) Production& exports ofsunoilsettorise by0.9 and0.7 Mn T in 2018/ /99 SUNFLOWERSEED World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Harvested Area 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 16/17 18/19F 23 Palm Oil hasbeena bigsuccessstoryin thepast40 years. 2 Interruptions 2016: -6% = -3.7 Mn T 1998: -5% = -0.8 Mn T The Outlook for Palm Oil Palm Oil Production in Major Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia Rest of World Effects of El Nino Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 12

24 The Outlook for Palm Oil Manychallenges: - Lack of replanting(age profile) - Labour shortage(malaysia) - Below potential yields - Acreage limitations The strong recovery in world palm oil production in 2017 and early2018 was temporary. 25 Palm oil production in Jan/Decin Mn T: Malaysia: 2017: : : 20.1 Indonesia: 2017: : : 43.0 PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia F J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 26 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 13

25 Outlook ofall OilsandFats World Production of 4 Major Oils Growth in world production is set to slowdown in 18/19 for -Palm oil -Soyaoil - Rapeseed oil Change on Year in Mn T Palm Oil Sun Oil Soya Oil Rape Oil -4 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19F O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 27 Higher import needs of China, India and other countries in 2018/19 World exportsof17 oils & fatsaresetto increaseby4.1 Mn T (against-0.2 in 17/18) World exports of palmoil+2.6 (vs+0.5) soyaoil+0.2 (-0.7) sun+rapeoil +0.8 (-0.3) OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T) Soy, Rape, Sun Oils 4 Animal Fats Palm Oil 9 Other /04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19F 28 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 14

26 Average demand growth in past5 seasons: Total per year +7.3 Mn T Biofuel +2.3 Mn T Food/other +5.0 Mn T In 2017/18 about16% of the world consumption of 17 oils of225 Mn T used for energy 17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption Total Usage in Mn T biofuel food and other /90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 29 Much improved Price Competitiveness of Palm Oil in the Energy Market Low palm oil prices relative to crude mineral oil Low palmoilpricesare buying demand!! Consumption of palm oil andothervegoilsrise sharply in energy market Weekly Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T) The palmoilofferedat pricediscountsof US-$ 187 on Oct25 andof 145 on Nov Crude palm oil, cif Rott. ICE Gas Oil (Spot) 200 Ja17 Apr Jly Oct Ja18 Apr Jly Sep Nov Weekly prices from January 2017 until 21 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 15

27 Biodiesel production almost trebled in the past11 years. But the growthissettoslowin the years ahead Mn T ofpalm oilfor biofuels in 2018, even 21% ofpo usage (14 forbiodiesel/hvo and 1 Mn for electricity) BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T ) J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 2019F 2018F EU * 13.30* U.S.A * 7.00* Argentina * 2.40* Brazil * 4.65* Colombia *.57* Singapore * 1.12* Indonesia * 5.20* 2.92* 3.18* Malaysia * 1.14* Thailand * 1.30* 1.20* Oth. ctries * 3.37* 3.11* 2.97* 2.90* 2.94* Total * 40.05* Change in Mn T +4.37* +4.21* OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r Consumption Annual Change 18/ 19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/ 18 16/17 EU * U.S.A * Argentina. 3.75* Brazil * China, PR 38.48* India * Indonesia * Malaysia. 5.57* Others * W orld * Annual growthin worldproductionof17 oils/fatstoslowto+5.9 Mn T in 2018/19 (against10.8 Mn in 2017/18). But thetotal quantity isstill 235 Mn T. 32 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 16

28 Sharp increase by Mn T forecastin global palm oil consumption in 18/19 Consumption growth to exceed production growth in 2018/19 Palm oilstocksto peakin Dec2018 and declinein 2019 Prices set to recover PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a) Production Consumption (a) Opening stocks + production Annual Change (Mn T) Supplies (a) 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 33 Contrary to rising stocksofoilseeds, world stocks of oils andfatsarestill comparatively low in relation to consumption Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage Stocks Mn T Stocks/Usage (%) F E n d - S e p t e m b e r 34 Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 17

29 US soybean prices plungedsinceapril. Theyarevulnerable toa setback towards$ 8.00 /bu, unlesschina resumes purchases Soya meal prices still supported above last year s level Daily Prices in Rotterdam (US-$/T) Soya pellets, Arg, cif Rott. Soybeans, US, cif Rott. 250 Jan 17 Jun 17 Jan 18 Jun 18 Oct Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 20 Nov Palm oil prices are close to their bottom 1) rising demand from the food and energy sector, and 2) Slowingdown of production growth 3) World stocks of palmoilandofall oils & fatsforecastto declineby0.8 and1.6 Mn T, resp. in Jan/Sept 2019 In thenext9 months priceriseof $ in palm& soyaoils Daily Prices of Crude Soya Oil & Palm Oil (US-$/T) Soya oil, fob Arg. (y1) Palm oil, crude, fob Indo. (y1) Premium/discounts (y2) Ja17 Apr Jly Sep Ja 18 Apr Jly Sep Nov Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 21 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 18

30 Palm oilfutureson the BMD are probably near their lows. Shouldmovehigherin thenext4-9 months. Upside is limited by crudemineralprices. Swing factors to watch: -MonthlyPO S & D - Import purchases - Energy demand -US / China tradewar MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T 1900 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja18 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Prices from 1 March 2017 until 21 Nov World supplies of the 2 lauric oilswereupby 1.0 Mn T in 2017/18 comparedwithjust +0.2 Mn a yearearlier Coconut oil output up in 2017/18, following 4 yearsofdecline Lauric supply growth Mn in 2018/19 Nov 1-21 price average in Rott US-$ 690 and 740 forpko andcno. Yesterdayat740 & 830 Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in Daily Prices of 3 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T) 2000 Coconut oil,phil/indo,cif Rott Palmkern oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rott. Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur Jan15 Jly Ja16 Jly Ja'17 Jly Ja18 Oct Daily prices from Jan 2015 until 20 Nov Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 19

31 Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in 2018 US-$/T Coconut Oil Premiums/Discounts of average prices in Rotterdam vs Palm Oil vs Palmkernel Oil feb apr jun aug oct dec feb apr jun jan15mar may jly sep nov jan16mar may aug oct dec feb apr jun aug oct dec feb apr jun aug oct jly sep nov jan17mar may jly sep nov jan18mar may jly sep nov Jan until Nov Thank you for your attention! More market info required? Just get in touch with me: Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de fon OIL WORLD marketinformationisavailabledaily, weekly and monthly Signupfora 3-week trialperiod Copyright 2018 ISTA Mielke GmbH. This information is destined for internal use only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of the proprietary content without the prior written consent of ISTA Mielke GmbH is prohibited. The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the subscriber s use. Kindly visit us on For further information you may call Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 20