Modelling the Effect on Air Quality of Euro 6 Emission Factor Scenarios here: Scenario I. Final Results. on behalf of VDA

Transcription

1 Modelling the Effect on Air Quality of Euro 6 Emission Factor Scenarios here: Scenario I Final Results on behalf of VDA Chr. Schneider, N. Toenges-Schuller, AVISO GmbH 1

2 Emission and Air Quality Calculations Model configuration based on air quality calculations already performed for Ford/VDA/ACEA Three typical traffic sites in Germany are regarded: Am Neckartor/Stuttgart, Corneliusstraße/Düsseldorf and Dachauerstraße/Munich; Calculations were performed for the years 2015, 2020, 2025 und 2030 Actualisation of the input data was done for: traffic volume, fleet composition (TREMOD data for Germany considered) phase-in of passenger car Diesel Euro 6/6 RDE step 1 and step 2 consideration of local fleet composition for passenger cars consideration of emission factors for passenger cars Euro6 RDE step 1 and step 2 from TU Graz (FVT, Prof. Hausberger) data of background concentration taken form UBA study Luftqualität 2020/2030 (UBA-Texte 35/2014) 2

3 Scenarios for Air Quality Calculations: Scenario I diesel PC EU 6: HBEFA % diesel PC EU 6 RDE step 1 and step 2: as voted by TCMV CF=2.1 (step 1) CF=1.5 (step 2) for moderate & extended range, flat Phase-in: RDE: two-step introduction EU 6 RDE, step 1 EU 6 RDE, step % 0% % 0% % 0% % 0% % 25% % 100% % 100% 3

4 Traffic data for the three typical German streets (annual mean daily traffic volume) Düsseldorf Corneliusstraße: 43,700 vehicles/24h (LDV 3.8%, HDV 1.3%) Stuttgart Am Neckartor: 73,500 vehicles/24h (LDV 3.2%, HDV 2.9%) München Dachauerstraße: 21,600 vehicles/24h (LDV 3.0%, HDV 4.2%) Emission calculations based on Hourly values of traffic data and traffic situation (level of service) Fleet composition based on the actual fleet composition in TREMOD for Germany (delivered by IFEU), additionally taking into account the regional fleet composition for passenger cars Emissions factors (HBEFA3.2) for the relevant traffic situations Emission factors delivered by TU Graz (FVT) for RDE scenarios 4

5 emission factors for HBEFA3.2, Euro6, 6c and RDE scenarios step 1 and step 2 Data source: HBEFA3.2 und emission factors delivered from TU Graz (FVT) for scenario I PC emission factors weighted with kilometrage per level of service HBEFA3.2, PC diesel EU 5 DPF HBEFA3.2, PC diesel EU 6 DPF HBEFA3.2, PC diesel EU 6c DPF HBEFA3.2, PC gasoline EU 5/6/6c HBEFA3.2, PC diesel EU 6 +90% scen. I, step 1, PC diesel EU 6 RDE scen. I, step 2, PC diesel EU 6 RDE Am Neckartor Dachauer Str. Corneliusstr. 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 NO X -emission factor [g/km] 5

6 Scen. I: NO X -emissions [t/(km*a)] NO X -emissions (total column) shown as sum of NO (blue column, NO as NO 2 ) and NO 2 (red column) for scenario I 10 8 NO2 NO Corneliusstraße Am Neckartor Dachauer Straße 6

7 contribution to NO X -emissions in % NO X emissions in t/(km*a) NO X - emissions Corneliusstraße scenario I 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 2 PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 1 PC diesel EU 6 PC diesel EU 5 PC diesel EU 4 PC diesel EU 3 PC diesel EU 2 PC diesel before EU 2 PC CNG/LPG PC gasoline EU 6/6c PC gasoline EU 5 PC gasoline EU 4 PC gasoline EU 3 PC gasoline EU 2 PC gasoline before EU 2 light duty vehicles busses two-wheelers heavy duty vehicles trucks 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 2 PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 1 PC diesel EU 6 PC diesel EU 5 PC diesel EU 4 PC diesel EU 3 PC diesel EU 2 PC diesel before EU 2 PC CNG/LPG PC gasoline EU 6/6c PC gasoline EU 5 PC gasoline EU 4 PC gasoline EU 3 PC gasoline EU 2 PC gasoline before EU 2 light duty vehicles busses two-wheelers heavy duty vehicles trucks 7

8 contribution to NO 2 -emissions in % NO 2 emissions in t/(km*a) NO 2 - emissions Corneliusstraße scenario I 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0, PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 2 PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 1 PC diesel EU 6 PC diesel EU 5 PC diesel EU 4 PC diesel EU 3 PC diesel EU 2 PC diesel before EU 2 pc CNG/LPG PC gasoline EU 6/6c PC gasoline EU 5 PC gasoline EU 4 PC gasoline EU 3 PC gasoline EU 2 PC gasoline before EU 2 light duty vehicles busses two-wheelers heavy duty vehicles trucks 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 2 PC diesel EU 6 RDE step 1 PC diesel EU 6 PC diesel EU 5 PC diesel EU 4 PC diesel EU 3 PC diesel EU 2 PC diesel before EU 2 pc CNG/LPG PC gasoline EU 6/6c PC gasoline EU 5 PC gasoline EU 4 PC gasoline EU 3 PC gasoline EU 2 PC gasoline before EU 2 light duty vehicles busses two-wheelers heavy duty vehicles trucks 8

9 AVISO-Chemistry-Box-Modell: Air quality modelling of a street canyon Box: assumed to be homogeneously mixed height: building height, width: width of street canyon Gas phase chemistry: RADM2: 56 species and 140 thermochemical reactions, 21 photochemical reactions solver: EURAD Transport: perpendicular to street Input parameters (hourly resolution): urban background concentrations for NO 2, NO and ozone roadside concentrations from air quality station of NO and NO 2 wind speed and global radiation (urban background) traffic emissions in the street Not considered: turbulent diffusion, deposition, variable mixing height, heterogeneous reactions Source: VDA Technical Congress 2010 Model calibration for 2006, fit to

10 annual mean NO2 [µg/m 3 ] Air Quality Modelling: Results Am Neckartor, Scen. I Corneliusstraße, Scen. I Dachauer Straße, Scen. I scenario I Am Neckartor 90,2 72,2 54,9 44,5 Corneliusstraße 60,5 49,2 37,7 30,9 Dachauer Straße 31,5 26,2 22,1 19,7 10

11 annual mean NO 2 [µg/m³] Conclusion by Analogy: Extrapolation Scen. I to all German Traffic Stations (144 stations considered: all German traffic stations from EEA AirBase 2014) Am Neckartor Corneliusstraße 2006 measurements 2006 calibration 2014 measurements 2015 scenario I 2020 scenario I 2025 scenario I 2030 scenario I limit value Dachauer Straße stations (sorted) 11

12 Conclusion by Analogy: Extrapolation to all German Traffic Stations (144 stations considered: all German traffic stations from EEA AirBase 2014) number and fraction of stations exceeding NO 2 air quality limit Scenario I 2015 number of stations 72 fraction (of 144 stations) 50% 2020 number of stations 39 fraction (of 144 stations) 27% 2025 number of stations 12 fraction (of 144 stations) 8,3% 2030 number of stations 2 fraction (of 144 stations) 1,4% 12

13 Scenario I: Number of Stations Exceeding the Limit Scenario I: Number of stations exceeding NO 2 air quality limit (144 stations considered: all German traffic stations from EEA AirBase 2014)

14 Scenario I: Fraction of Stations Exceeding the Limit Scenario I: Fraction of stations exceeding NO 2 air quality limit (144 stations considered: all German traffic stations from EEA AirBase 2014) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

15 Results Emission and air quality calculations were shown for Am Neckartor (Stuttgart) Corneliusstraße (Düsseldorf) Dachauer Straße (Munich) for the years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 and scenario I (TCMV voted) Results were extrapolated to all German traffic influenced air quality measurement stations The fraction of stations exceeding the air quality limit for annual mean NO 2 (with respect to the number of traffic stations from EEA AirBase in Germany 2014) is expected to be reduced in scenario I as follows: 2015: 50% 2020: 27% 2025: 8% 2030: 1% 15