NOx Emissions from Modern Diesel Vehicles. Dr Ben Marner

Transcription

1 NOx Emissions from Modern Diesel Vehicles Dr Ben Marner

2 Introduction Compile results from real-world emissions tests See how Defra s EFT is performing Can we improve on the EFT s predictions?

3 Historical Context Predicted Measured

4 Historical Context Predicted Measured Annual Mean NO 2 (µg/m 3 ) Objec1ve Official 10 No Reduc1ons in Emissions per Vehicle

5 Past Performance is no Indicator of Future Returns * 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Composition of National Diesel Car Fleet (v/km) Euro 6 Euro 5 Euro 4 Euro 3 Euro 2 Euro 1 Pre- Euro 1 30% 20% 10% 0% % 90% 80% 70% 60% Composition of National Artic HGV Fleet (v/km) Euro VI Euro V 50% Euro IV 40% Euro III 30% Euro II 20% Euro I 10% 0% *my pension statement

6 Compiled Test Results for Euro 6 Diesel Cars

7 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Studies where Average Speed is Not Reported Conformity Factor Studies Where an Average Speed is Reported Studies Where a Range of Speeds is Reported Weighted Average Speed (kph)

8 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Conformity Factor All Measurement Studies 2 1 Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

9 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Conformity Factor COPERT 4 V10 E6 All Measurement Studies 2 1 Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

10 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Conformity Factor COPERT 4 V10 E6 All Measurement Studies 2 1 Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

11 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Conformity Factor COPERT 4 V10 E6 All Measurement Studies 2 1 Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

12 Euro 6 Diesel Cars 8 7 Conformity Factor COPERT 4 V10 E6 UpliQed Emissions All Measurement Studies Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

13 Euro 6 Diesel Cars Conformity Factor UpliQed Emissions All Measurement Studies 2 1 Weighted Average from Measurements Speed (kph)

14 New EFT 8 7 COPERT 4 V10 E6 6 COPERT 4 V11 E6 Conformity Factor UpliQed Emissions COPERT V10 Uplifed Emissions COPERT V Speed (kph) All Measurement Studies Weighted Average from Measurements

15 Heavies Few vehicles/engines tested (15 engines + remote sensing) Lots of possible engine / vehicle combinations g/kwh or g/km Looked at relative differences between Euro stds

16 Heavies Substantial Reductions from Euro V to Euro VI both Measured and Predicted 50% 45% Euro VI as % of Euro V 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Buses and Coaches COPERT HGVs COPERT TNO, 2014 Urban TNO, 2014 Extra- urban EVI TU Graz, 2013 TfL, 2015 (Artic) Tate, 2013 Tate, 2015 (Artic) Tate, 2015 (Rigid) 0% Speed (kph)

17 Heavies Measured Reductions up to Euro V Less Persuasive 160% 140% Euro V as % of Euro III 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% COPERT V10 HGVs COPERT V10 Bus and Choach TNO, 2014 Carslaw and Ryhs- Tyler, 2013 Tate, 2013 Tate, 2015 Tate, % 0% Speed (kph)

18 Heavies No Strong Evidence of Reduction between Euro III and Euro V Ø So uplift Euro IV and V to parity with Euro III Euro VI ca. 80% Reduction from Euro V Ø So set Euro VI to be 20% of Euro III* *For the equivalent vehicle type, when emissions for all speeds are averaged

19 Heavies Emissions as % of Euro III 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V (EGR) Euro V (SCR) Euro VI Rigid <=7,5 t Rigid 7,5-12 t Rigid t Rigid t Rigid t Rigid t Rigid t Rigid >32 t Articulated t Articulated t Articulated t Articulated t Articulated t Emission Standard

20 Summary of Adjustments Vehicle Type Adjustment Applied to Emission Factors All Petrol Vehicles No adjustment Light Duty Diesel Vehicles Euro 5 and earlier No adjustment Euro 6 UpliPed (to provide a Conformity Factor of 5) Euro III and earlier No adjustment Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles Euro IV and V Set to equal Euro III values for equivalent vehicle type Euro VI Mul1plied by between 1.8 and 4.4 (depending on vehicle type) to equal 20% of Euro III emissions (for that vehicle type)

21 Overall Effect Ø Vehicle ageing? Ø Greater spatial variability?

22 Phasing of Euro / Euro 6a/b New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) Euro 6c World Light- duty Test Cycle Real Driving Emissions (RDE) with Conformity Factor of up to onward Euro 6d World Light- duty Test Cycle RDE with Conformity Factor of up to 1.5* * CF of 1 with a measurement tolerance of 0.5 to be reviewed yearly

23 CURED! Excel Calculator free to use and available from:

24 Summary Euro 6/VI holds key to future trends Euro 6/VI much better than earlier vehicles EFT has over-stated these benefits CURED corrects this CURED will be updated when new EFT is released

25 The End Thanks for Staying Awake J This presentation was based on a report which is available at: References are set out in the report linked above Dr Ben Marner Tel: BenMarner@aqconsultants.co.uk

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