RS Platou Monthly July 2014

Transcription

1 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Supply, demand and utilization rate, tanker fleet (1, dwt +) Mill dwt Supply Demand Utilization rate Supply, demand and utilization rate, dry bulk fleet (1, dwt +) Utilization rate (%) Analytical topic of the month: Smoking hot LPG shipping market Page 2 Analyses and comments.. 2 World economy and world shipping.. 3 Newbuilding. 4 Tankers Freight market.. 5 Tankers Sale and purchase.. 6 Mill dwt Utilization rate (%) Bulk carriers Freight market 7 Bulk carriers Sale and purchase.. 8 Cellular container ships 9 LNG carriers Representative newbuilding contracts Supply Demand Utilization rate 8 Representative second hand sales. Contact list.. 12 P.O. Box 164 Vika Tel.: ecr@platou.com Shipbroking Oslo Haakon VII's gate 1 Fax: N 119 Oslo, Norway

2 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Analyses and comments Smoking hot LPG shipping market The LPG shipping market has been booming in the past couple of months, in particular for Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) where record high rates have lately given the owners more than $1, per day in time charter equivalent. During the first half of this year VLGC spot rates have been on average $61, per day seen against an average of $24, a year ago. The feast has been fuelled by a continued strong growth in US LPG exports, increased port time, seasonal upturn in the Middle East exports combined with a modest fleet growth. LPG exports out of the Middle East, which constitutes almost half of the world seaborne LPG trade, tend to increase during the summer months. In the first quarter this year, exports from this region were down by percent from the previous quarter and estimates based on AIS data indicate a 2 percent upturn in exports during the second quarter. However, we have estimated Middle East exports in the first half of 214 to be on par with the same period a year ago. The US shale oil and gas revolution has put its mark on the LPG shipping market for the past three to four years with an increasing strength. Last year US LPG production reached 7 million mt and 1 million mt, equal to 15 percent, was exported. During the first half of this year we have roughly estimated a 6 percent hike in US LPG exports. With the huge discount in US LPG prices compared to Asia and Europe, this trade is mainly constrained by the capacity to liquefy the LPG. An interesting observation in this respect is that spot rates for VLGCs have so far this year matched the gap between low US LPG prices, including the export terminal fee, and the higher prices in Asia. It appears that this is the determinant factor for how much a charterer is willing to pay for shipping which also clearly indicates that also shipping capacity is a bottleneck in this trade. An additional factor behind the LPG shipping demand has been the increase in transport distance, mainly driven by a growing share of the US export shipped to Europe and Asia. While 28 percent of the US LPG was sent to these regions last year, the share has been 35 percent so far this year and has resulted in an 8 percent upswing in transport distance for the US LPG export. In total we have estimated an increase in seaborne LPG trade during the first half 214 of close to 9 percent and coupled with longer transport distance, ton mile demand is up by 11 percent. Almost half of the seaborne LPG trade is shipped to Japan, Korea, China and India and while LPG imports into Japan and Korea have stagnated somewhat during the first six months of the year, the latter two have more or less doubled their LPG imports this period. A VLGC spends on average about one day to discharge in Korean and Japanese ports, whereas the port time in China is estimated to more than three days during the first half 214. In India, a VLGC used an estimated six days to discharge a cargo in the same period. This has resulted in a 3 percent reduction in the fleet productivity during the first half of the year. In sum the LPG shipping demand is estimated to have grown by more than percent in the first half of this year compared to a year ago. The orderbook for LPG carriers have grown tremendously the last year and currently represents 5 percent of the existing fleet. The slide of new ships will only start from next year, however, so fleet growth was a moderate 5 percent during the first half this year compared to a year ago. 1 LPG carriers were delivered and only three removed, increasing the carrying capacity by.45 million cbm. The fleet utilization has thus increased by 8 percent from a year ago to an estimated 96 percent, resulting in an average spot rate for VLGCs of $61, per day. Going forward, we expect the current tightness to ease off somewhat in line with the seasonal drop in Middle East exports which usually happens during the third quarter. However, Targa and Sunoco are set to increase their US export capacity by 3 million mt during the third quarter this year. With the prevailing price spread between the USA and the rest of the world it is very likely that this capacity will be utilized, creating additional shipping demand. Combined with relative few new ships expected from the shipyards, the balance in the LPG shipping market should remain tight also in the second half of this year. Next year deliveries of newbuildings are set to double compared to this year. However, with even more export capacity coming on stream in the USA and an increasing share of this expected to be shipping to Europe and Asia, we believe the LPG shipping market will remain tight and spot rates to be well above the last three year s average. Jørn Bakkelund RS Platou Economic Research Shipbroking Oslo 2

3 RS Platou Monthly July 214 World economy and world shipping July was a confusing month for those trying to understand the path for the world economy. On the downside, the IMF cut its 214 world GDP forecast by a relatively significant.3 percentage points to 3.4 percent. All major countries saw a setback, most notably the US which was cut from 2.8% to 1.7%, as the winter turned out to have had a much more negative effect than initially estimated. Continued tightening sanctions on Russia caused a similar downscaling of growth expectations there. The IMF continues to believe that the global upswing has merely been delayed, however, and maintained its forecast for 4 percent growth in 215, which would be the highest number since 21. Short term data appears to be on the its side, with US Q3 GDP accelerating sharply to 4 percent (annualized) growth and PMI surveys for China for July improving. World economy YoY change in % Forecasts for world GDP, monthly revisions YoY change in % GDP growth US (2.3) 3. (3.1) Euro area (1.5) China Japan India 4.7 (4.8) World (3.4) World trade 3.1 (3.) 4. (4.3) 5.3 Various sources ( ) previous month, if changed World merchant fleet YoY change in % Jan 2 Jul 2 Jan 214 Jul F 215F Tonnage demand Fleet growth Utilization rate Seaborne trade YoY change in % Market indicators YoY change in % Seaborne trade* Dry bulk 4Q/ Q/ m 2.3 Oil Oil 4.6 May Jun m Oil consumption World US China Crude imports US China Dry bulk May 214 Jun m China imports Dry bulk Oil 14 Iron ore Steel production China Bunker price 38 cst Singapore USD/ton US Container May 214 Jun m 8 US imports Commodity prices, end of month Jul 2 Jun 214 Brent oil spot USD/bbl Bunkers Singapore USD/t Indian iron ore USD/t Steam coal USD/t Steel HRC B. Sea USD/t Jul * For details on sources and methods, visit Shipbroking Oslo 3 4

4 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Newbuilding July is normally a slow month in the newbuilding market and this year is no exception. Several of the prospected Yamal LNG vessels at Daewoo were reported this month, however many of the other reported orders are options being declared. In China it seems the trend continues with mostly owners based in the Far East placing orders. Interesting to note Hantong have entered the stainless steel market, confirming orders of four firm st.steel tankers of about 39, dwt to SinoChem. Prices are still under pressure. Newbuilding prices in mill USD Dec 2 VLCC 94/95 Suezmax 62 Aframax 51/52 MR Clean 35/36 Capesize 53 Kamsarmax 29/3 Ultramax (from Jan 2) 27/28 Jun *Tankers from Korean yards, bulk carriers from Chinese yards Tank* Bulk* Order book in no. / mill dwt Rest VLCC Suezmax Aframax Smaller Capesize Post Panamax Pan./Kamsarmax Handy/Supramax Handysize Tank * Bulk * New orders in no. / mill dwt 2 VLCC Suezmax Aframax Smaller Capesize Post Panamax 7.7 Pan./Kamsarmax Handy/Supramax Handysize Tank * Bulk * Jul YTD Jul Building prices for tankers Mill USD VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR Clean Building prices for bulk carriers Mill USD Capesize Kamsarmax/Panamax Supramax Exchange rates Left: CNY/USD Right: JPY/USD *For tonnage definitions, visit CNY/USD JPY/USD 6 Shipbroking Oslo 4

5 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Tankers Freight market July turned out to be a rather pleasant month for tanker owners as the improving trend seen in June carried over. Activity increased further in the MEG and charterers appeared more eager to fix, possibly spurred on by supply concerns over Iraq, early in the month. Asian charterers returned to the Atlantic Basin market after several month of low profile with Suezmax and VLCC rates both rising sharply as a result. Aframaxes saw delays on both sides Average freight rates in 1, USD/day Weekly spot rates for crude carriers # 1, USD/day 2 YTD 214 YTD Jun 214 Jul VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 Clean LR1 Clean MR Clean VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 Clean Jun LR1 Clean Jun 4 Jul 18 Jul 1 Aug MR Clean VLCC Suezmax Aframax # World wide averages For weekly freight rates, visit Weekly spot rates for clean carriers # 1, USD/day Spot 12m T/C Tanker fleet development in mill dwt * Deliveries Removals 214 YTD 214 YTD VLCC Suezmax Aframax Smaller tanker fleet *For tonnage definitions, visit Oil market in mill bpd Demand Supply OECD Non OECD World demand Middle East Africa Latin America North America Western Europe Asia FSU Others World supply World seaborne oil trade Fleet end YoY Jul 214 in % Jun 2 Jun 4 Jul 18 Jul 1 Aug 2 6m m YoY in % F of the Atlantic with charterers being forced to pay up. At month s end these situations appeared to have settled down again and rates were off their highs, however. The clean market also saw some improvement, but more selectively. The LR2 market from MEG to Asia rose markedly as the naphtha arb opened up. MRs enjoyed stronger conditions in the US Gulf before falling back towards the end of the month. MR Clean LR1 LR2 Removal of tankers, 1, dwt + Mill dwt # World wide averages YTD Shipbroking Oslo 5

6 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Tankers Sale and purchase It has been a fairly active market despite the summer season. However, a soft chartering market continues to put pressure on product tanker values, especially for modern tonnage, reflected by latest sale of Ahrenkiel s 2 x MR resales from SPP for 215 delivery. These units are rumored to have been tied up at around usd 34 mill., a drop of abt usd 3 mill. from last done, if correct. With a healthy crude tanker chartering market, we see an increasing interest in crude tonnage, especially for 5 1 years old units. Estimated values in mill USD Jul 2 31, dwt resale 8. 35, dwt 5 years 55. 3, dwt 1 years , dwt resale , dwt 5 years , dwt 1 years , dwt resale , dwt 5 years 3. 15, dwt 1 years 19. C 75, dwt resale 4. C 75, dwt 5 years 27. C 5, dwt resale 36. C 47, dwt 5 years 26. C 47, dwt 1 years 16. C 37, dwt 5 years 23. Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USD Average Baltic panel assessments 14 Jul VLCC 5 years old 35, dwt 72.7 Aframax 5 years old 15, dwt 36.9 MR Prod. 5 years old 45, dwt 26.6 Demolition prices in USD/ldt Jul 2 Far East 34 Sub continent * 41 * India/Bangladesh/Pakistan May 214 Jun 214 Jul Jul May 214 Jun 214 Jul Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD VLCC Suezmax Aframax Second hand values for clean carriers, 4/45, dwt Mill USD years DH 5 years Sold for scrapping and other removals* in no. / mill dwt 2 YTD 214 YTD Jul 214 VLCC double hull Suezmax double hull Aframax double hull Smaller double hull double hull Single hull years second hand values in percent of newbuilding prices 6 * Including total loss/conversion/reclass 5 For tonnage definitions, visit VLCC Suezmax Aframax Shipbroking Oslo 6

7 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Bulk carriers Freight market Freight rates fell significantly during most of July. High Chinese inventories of iron ore and coal reduced import activity and lower grain shipments from the US and Black Sea also affected tonnage demand negatively in this period. Towards the very end of the month, however, higher activity in South American grain shipments and increased coal transportation to India contributed to somewhat stronger tonnage demand and thereby slightly higher freight rates. For seasonal reasons, it should be realistic to expected stronger tonnage demand during the next coming months. However, the Chinese inventory cycle in iron ore creates few incentives for steel mills to massively raise overseas import because alternative supply of ore is already stored in ports. This will reduce the upside potential in freight rates in the short term. Average freight rates in 1, USD/day 2 YTD 214 YTD Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Spot 12m T/C Jun Jul Weekly spot rates 1, USD/day For weekly freight rates, visit 6 Jun 2 Jun 4 Jul 18 Jul 1 Aug Dry bulk fleet development in mill dwt Deliveries* Removals Fleet end 214 YTD 214 YTD Jul 214 Capesize Post Panamax Panamax/Kamsarmax Handymax/Supramax Handysize dry bulk fleet * Including conversions Industrial production, YoY in % USA Euro area Japan China Other Asia Steel production in mill tons USA Japan EU27 China Other Asia world F YoY in % F m 214 6m YoY in % Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize 12 months T/C rates 1, USD/day Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize World steel production Mill tons/month ,1 4,1 5,1 6,1 7,1 8,1 9, world China Rest of the world Shipbroking Oslo 7

8 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Bulk carriers Sale and purchase As the freight market remained weak throughout July, combined with the usual summer lull, the sales activity has as expected been low in the bulk carrier space. Looking at the reported sales, the downward pressure on values is becoming quite evident across all segments. However, we are experiencing an increasing number of inspections compared the previous month and this could indicate that the recent price correction may again spark buying interest in light of a more positive outlook going forward. Estimated values in mill USD Jul 2 18, dwt resale , dwt 5 years , dwt 1 years , dwt resale , dwt 5 years , dwt 1 years 16. 6, dwt resale , dwt 5 years , dwt 1 years , dwt resale , dwt 5 years , dwt 1 years. May 214 Jun 214 Jul Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD Capesize Panamax Handymax Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USD Average Baltic panel assessments 14 Jul Capesize 5 years old 172, dwt 47. Panamax 5 years old 74, dwt 24.8 Super Handy 5 years old 56, dwt Jul Second hand values, 1 years old Mill USD 15 1 Demolition prices in USD/ldt Jul 2 Far East 3 Sub continent* 375 * India/Bangladesh/Pakistan May 214 Jun Jul Sold for scrapping in no. / mill dwt 2 YTD 214 YTD Jul 214 Capesize Post Panamax Panamax/Kamsarmax Handymax/Supramax Handysize Capesize Panamax Handymax 5 years second hand values in percent of newbuilding prices Capesize Panamax Handymax Shipbroking Oslo 8

9 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Cellular container ships Even though fixing activity was high taking the time of the year into consideration, charter rates drifted in principle sideways with limited movement in any segments. For Post Panamax sizes, a couple of relets were reported fixed for months period at unchanged levels compared with recent fixtures. In the Panamax sector, activity was high but most ships were fixed for short periods only. Box rates remained also more or less static resulting from a more or less parallel growth in tonnage demand and fleet supply. Any quick recovery in this sector seems less likely in the short term due to the significant over capacity. Average charter rates in 1, USD/day 2 YTD 214 YTD Jun 214 1, TEU ,7 TEU ,5 TEU TEU Jul month T/C rates 1, USD/day Container fleet development in mill TEU 2 Deliveries Removals Fleet end YoY YTD 214 YTD Jul 214 in % Below 1, TEU , 1,999 TEU , 3,999 TEU , 5,999 TEU ,6 TEU 4,5 TEU 1,7 TEU 1, TEU 6, 7,999 TEU 8, 9,999 TEU Building prices Mill USD 1,+ TEU container fleet Order book in no. / mill TEU TEU Rest Below 1, 1, 1,999 2, 3,999 4, 5,999 6, 7, , 9, , , TEU 6, TEU 4,5 TEU 1,7 TEU* * Geared New orders in no. / mill TEU YTD Jul 214 Below 1, TEU 1, 1,999 TEU 2, 3,999 TEU 4, 5,999 TEU 6, 7,999 TEU 8, 9,999 TEU 1,+ TEU China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) USD/TEU China to N. Europe China to S. Europe China to USWC China to USEC Shipbroking Oslo 9

10 RS Platou Monthly July 214 LNG carriers By the end of July virtually no prompt tonnage available in the Pacific Basin. Numerous Middle East cargoes heading into the Atlantic, additional vessels ballasting west to fulfil firm commitments and excess cargoes from several Pacific projects have all combined to thin out the previously well populated list. In the reverse of what has been the trend over recent years, the Atlantic has seen comparatively little activity. Vessels chartered Average charter rates in 1, USD/day 2 YTD 214 YTD Jun 214 Jul k cbm ST Spot k cbm DFDE T/C LNG carrier fleet development in no. / mill cbm Deliveries Removals Fleet end 1, cbm 214 YTD 214 YTD Jul YoY in % in recently for Atlantic loadings have tended to be fixed well in advance for floating storage plays which has meant ballasting the appropriate low boil off ships from the Pacific. The inter basin spread on gas prices is at a 3 year low of around $3/MMBtu which has also restricted extra cargoes (particularly additional reloads) from heading from Atlantic to Pacific. Therefore availability in the West is a little greater than that East of Suez. Freight rates 1, USD/day Spot 12m T/C Order book in no. / mill cbm 1, cbm Rest New orders in no. / mill cbm 1, cbm YTD Jul LNG imports in mill mt Japan Korea China 2 6m m YoY in % Building prices for LNG carriers Mill USD k cbm 173k cbm Natural gas prices USD/mmbtu Henry Hub NBP LNG spot Asia Shipbroking Oslo 1

11 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Representative reported newbuilding contracts Tank Capacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery 2 x 158, dwt Hyundai Gunsan Polembros 67 mill USD x 55, dwt Samsung Sovcomflot (Shuttle tankers) 216/217 4 x 39, dwt Hantong Sinochem (Chemical tankers) 53.5 mill USD x, dwt Hyundai Mipo Alterna Capital (Product carriers) 216 Bulk Capacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery 1 x 18, dwt Sungdong SB Teh Hu Steamship 57 mill USD x 82, dwt Jinling SY Shandong Shipping 28 mill USD 217/18 2 x 82, dwt COSCO KC Maritime 215/16 2 x 64, dwt COSCO KC Maritime x 64, dwt COSCO Noble x 38,8 dwt Chengxi COSCO 217 Container Capacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery 2 x 2,5 teu Zhejiang Ouhua Arkas 26 mill USD 217 LNG Capacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery 4 x 174, cbm Hudong Teekay x 172,6 cbm DSME Teekay x 172,6 cbm DSME Mitsui OSK LPG Capacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery 6 x 8, cbm Samsung Reliance (Ethane carriers) 216/17 Shipbroking Oslo 11

12 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Representative second hand sales Tank Name Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments G Whale 32 dwt 211/Korea 6 mill USD Maersk Hakata 33 dwt 21/Japan Enbloc Maersk Hakone 33 dwt 21/Japan " Maersk Hirado 33 dwt 211/Japan " Maersk Hojo 33 dwt 2/Japan 342 mill USD Belgium " Neptune Glory 299 dwt 1998/Korea 22.5 mill USD Nigeria Cape Bantry 16 dwt 2/Korea 17 mill USD Enbloc Cape Balder 16 dwt 2/Korea 17 mill USD Seychelles " Huelva Spirit 16 21/Korea mill USD Koa Spirit /Korea 12.5 mill USD Korea Amorgos Warrior / 7.9 mill USD Ukraine Chemical/Product Name Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments Liwa 75 dwt 28/Japan 28.5 mill USD Spp Tongyeong S118 5 dwt 215/Korea Enbloc Spp Tongyeong S dwt 215/Korea 68 mill USD Singapore " Overseas Nedimar 47 dwt 1995/Korea 8.5 mill USD Cape Bear 34 dwt 1997/Russia 9 mill USD Indonesia Mct Altair 2 dwt 1999/Croatia 8.7 mill USD Indonesia Bulk Name Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments Eships Nahyan 18 dwt 214/China 58 mill USD Greece Silver Pioneer 173 dwt 22/Japan 32 mill USD Korea Eternal Salute 87 dwt 26/Japan 21.9 mill USD Greece B Max 84 dwt 212/Korea 24 mill USD Court sale Duro 74 dwt 1993/Korea 6.5 mill USD Themis P 7 dwt 1994/Japan 5.8 mill USD China Crown Alexandra 58 dwt 212/China Enbloc Crown Esmeralda 58 dwt 212/China " Crown Mina 58 dwt 212/China 74 mill USD Greece " Mandarin Harvest 57 dwt 29/China 19 mill USD Greece Bright Moon 56 dwt 27/Japan 19.7 mill USD Cb Adventure 46 dwt 22/Japan 11.7 mill USD Bangladesh Global Horizon 34 dwt 21/Japan 19 mill USD Greece Scarlett 33 dwt 29/Japan 19 mill USD Greece Container Name Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments Msc Vaishnavi R TEU 22/Korea 12.5 mill USD L Amanda 1 56 TEU 1997/Japan 4.5 mill USD Indonesia Shipbroking Oslo 12

13 RS Platou Monthly July 214 Contact list Oslo RS Platou ASA RS Platou Shipbrokers Haakon VII's gate 1 Sale and Purchase snp@platou.com N 119 Oslo Newbuilding new@platou.com Norway Tank tankers.oslo@platou.com Tel: Dry Cargo dry@platou.com Fax: Car car@platou.com office@platou.com Economic Research ecr@platou.com RS Platou Offshore RS Platou Markets AS RS Platou Project Finance AS Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Fax: off@platou.com office@platoumarkets.com finans@platou.com Geneva Houston London RS Platou Geneve SA Lone Star RS Platou Inc. RS Platou London 19, Rue de la Corraterie 363 N. Sam Houston Parkway E. Floor 38A, Tower 42 CH 124 Geneva Suite 1 Old Broad Street Switzerland Houston, Texas 776 London EC2N 1HQ, United Kingdom Tel: USA Tel: Fax: Tel: Fax: dry@platou.ch Fax: snp.london@platou.com tankers@lsrsp.com lng.london@platou.com Melbourne Moscow Perth RS Platou Melbourne SA RS Platou ASA, Moscow RS Platou Perth SA Office 2, Level 1 Bronnaya Plaza, Bldg. 1, Floor 7 8/38 Colin St. 499 St. Kilda 32, Sadova Kudrinskaya St. West Perth 65 Melbourne 34 Moscow 1231, Russia WA, Australia Victoria, Australia Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Fax: moscow@platou.com drycargo.australia@platou.com drycargo.australia@platou.com Piraeus Shanghai Singapore RS Platou Hellas Ltd. RS Platou ASA Shanghai Repr. Office RS Platou (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 1 3 Filellinon Str. Lippo Plaza, Unit Temasek Avenue Piraeus 222 Huai Hai Zhong Road # 2 1 Centennial Tower Greece Shanghai 221, China Singapore 3919 Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Fax: snp@platou.gr pshang@platou.com snp.singapore@platou.com dry@platou.gr new.shanghai@platou.com dry.singapore@platou.com snp.shanghai@platou.com offshore.singapore@platou.com Sydney RS Platou Sydney SA Ground Floor, 174 Willoughby Road Crows Nest, Sydney 265 NSW, Australia Tel: Fax: drycargo.australia@platou.com While care has been taken to ensure the information in this report is accurate, it is a general guide and not intended to be relied upon for any specific purpose. RS Platou ASA, its affiliates, directors and employees are not responsible or liable for any losses or consequences, whatsoever, arising from any errors, lack of correctness, inaccuracy or incompleteness of the information contained herein. Reproducing any materials from this report without prior approval from RS Platou ASA is strictly forbidden. All matters relating to this report shall be governed by the laws of Norway, and any dispute arising in respect of this presentation is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts with Oslo as legal venue. Shipbroking Oslo