Multipurpose & Heavy-Lift Fleet Update BreakBulk Europe 2016

Transcription

1 Multipurpose & Heavy-Lift Fleet Update BreakBulk Europe th May 2016

2 Agenda: No let-up: MPV/HL Fleet still under siege Vessel Supply Multipurpose vessels and project carriers Cargo Demand Dry cargo demand, General cargo demand and Project cargo Sector Competition Handy bulk carriers and Container vessels Market Outlook Challenges and conclusions 2 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

3 Vessel Supply

4 Vessel Supply MPV Fleet age profile ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 4 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

5 Vessel Supply MPV Fleet age profile by vessel type ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 5 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

6 Vessel Supply MPV orderbook / delivery schedule (no. of vessels) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 6 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

7 Vessel Supply MPV & HeavyLift demolitions ( 000 dwt) Average age of demolitions (years) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 7 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

8 Vessel Supply Fleet development to 2018 ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 8 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

9 Vessel Supply Fleet development by vessel type to 2018 ( 000 dwt) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 9 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

10 Cargo Demand

11 Cargo Demand Key Drivers World economic growth (% change) World economic growth (% change) Crude oil price Dubai ($/bbl) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 11 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

12 Cargo Demand Development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 12 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

13 Cargo Demand Development of General cargo demand (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 13 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

14 Cargo Demand Development of MPV market share (million tonnes) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 14 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

15 Sector Competition

16 Sector competition Drewry all earnings index Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 16 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

17 Sector competition Weighted East-West Container rates ($ per TEU) Estimated bulkcarrier time charter rates ($pd) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 17 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

18 Sector competition One year timecharter rates ($pd) Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 18 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

19 Market Outlook

20 Market outlook Supply vs Demand balance Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 20 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

21 Market outlook Supply vs Demand Index Projected movement in rates Source: Drewry s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (/publishing) 21 Drewry Maritime Research #bbeu2016

22 Market Outlook Forecast for the MPV Fleet 2016 expected to be another difficult year 2017 unlikely to see significant increase before second half 2018 hoping to turn a corner Factors affecting the forecast Global trade growth weak throughout 2016, principally due to slowdown from China but also low oil price and little investment. Competing sectors struggling with weak cargo demand, likely to encroach further into MPV share of general cargo MPV sector disproportionally losing market share Total MPV fleet supply forecast growth at just 0.3%pa but the project carrier segment is much stronger at almost 4%pa over the period

23 UK INDIA SINGAPORE CHINA Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS United Kingdom 209 Vipul Square Sushant Lok - 1 Gurgaon India #13-02 Tower Fifteen 15 Hoe Chiang Road Singapore Unit D01, Level 10, Shinmay Union Square Tower 2, 506 Shangcheng Road Pudong, Shanghai