Intertanko. Inge Steensland AS background. Outlook for the Chemical Tanker Market. Houston March 27, 2007

Transcription

1 All information provided by Inge Steensland AS related to this material, whether oral or written, is Inge Steensland AS present opinion, and is subject to change, completion or amendment without notice. Certain statements include forward-looking statements and predictions. The forward-looking statements and predictions reflect our current views and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many of these factors are beyond our ability to control or predict. Given these factors, the receiver and others presented this material should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements and predictions. Outlook for the Chemical Tanker ket Intertanko Houston ch 27, 7 Inge Steensland AS background was founded in 196, specializing as in the small tanker segment. From the early 196 s played an active role in the development of gas transportation is a leading shipbroker in LPG, LNG, ammonia, petrochemical gases, liquid chemicals and clean petroleum products. We have Chartering-, Sale & Purchase/Project and Research departments for these markets I.S. SHIPBROKERS Pte Ltd established in Singapore in 1997 as a joint venture between Island Shipbrokers Pte. Ltd and to provide our clients with real time services within the region on liquid chemicals and speciality products, such as lubricants, acids and vegetable oils, and on LPG, ammonia and petrochemical gases Chartering Gas carriers, chemical tankers, product tankers S&P / Newbuilding / Project Contracting of new vessels Sale & Purchase of second hand vessels Valuation of tonnage for clients and banks Operations Post fixture management Research Analysis and studies, statistical data and market reports and prediction in our niches of the shipping market 5+ staff in Oslo and five in Singapore Det Norske Veritas / ISO 91/ certified

2 Overview Historical developments Fleet dynamics Chemical ket Outlook pol Annex II reclassification Middle East expansion In the 198 s we saw strong fleet and depressed freight rates USD pmt Strong fleet Strong economic The Gulf war Strong economic Asian economic crisis Tight US energy market Booming Chinese CPP market influence 1 Slow fleet Strong fleet Conclusion Houston/Rotterdam 5 mt easy chems Houston/Ulsan 5 mt easy chems ME Gulf/Ulsan 1 mt easy chems MED/ARA 5 mt easy chems

3 Slow fleet and strong economic activity saw freight rates jump mid 199 USD pmt Strong economic The Gulf war Strong economic Asian economic crisis Tight US energy market Booming Chinese Strong fleet Slow fleet Strong fleet Houston/Rotterdam 5 mt easy chems ME Gulf/Ulsan 1 mt easy chems Houston/Ulsan 5 mt easy chems MED/ARA 5 mt easy chems Today we see exceptional fleet, strong economic AND high freight rates USD pmt Strong economic The Gulf war Strong economic Asian economic crisis Tight US energy market Booming Chinese Strong fleet Slow fleet Strong fleet Houston/Rotterdam 5 mt easy chems ME Gulf/Ulsan 1 mt easy chems Houston/Ulsan 5 mt easy chems MED/ARA 5 mt easy chems

4 Fleet developments 5,+dwt core and swing chemical fleet 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -2,, Core & Swing Existing fleet 26.4 mill dwt / 1442 vsls Confirmed orders 11.4 mill dwt / 571 vsls 43% Avg. age of existing fleet 12. yrs 15 yr+ share 32% yr+ share 22% 25 yr+ share 7% Future scrapping assumed at 27 years. Existing 27 years and older vessels assumed scrapped during 7-8 Deliveries Confirmed orders Scrapping Future scrapping Some segments more popular than others Core & swing chem fleet by size, age, and orderbook 14. Million dwt % 3-17, dwt 39% OB 64% 41% Ordered Existing Ordered Existing Ordered Existing Ordered Existing 3-1, dwt 1-17, dwt 17-3, dwt 3,+ dwt 47% NB 1-15yr 15-19yr -24yr 25-27yr 28yr+

5 Some segments more popular than others Core & swing chem fleet by size, age, and orderbook 14. Million dwt % 3-17, dwt 39% OB 64% 41% Ordered Existing Ordered Existing Ordered Existing Ordered Existing 3-1, dwt 1-17, dwt 17-3, dwt 3,+ dwt 47% NB 1-15yr 15-19yr -24yr 25-27yr 28yr+ Overview Historical developments Fleet dynamics Chemical ket Outlook pol Annex II reclassification Middle East expansion CPP market influence Conclusion

6 uary 1, 7: pol Annex II adding new tons to the chemical fleet Prev/new type Ch. 18 Imo 2 / Imo 3 DH Ch. 18 Imo 3 Imo 3 Imo 2 Current trade m m m Cargo Ch. 18 3m Ethanol Vegetable oils and palm oils Fatty acids (strictly IMO 2), paraffin wax Methanol MTBE UAN MEG/TEG/DEG Ethyl acetate, Methyl ethyl ketone Xylenes (para, ortho, meta) Ethylbenzene, Perchloroethylene Trade on ships not complying prior to 1/1/7 Approx. +25 mill.* +5m Major capacity additions coming onstream next year Export ex Middle East Gulf/Pakistan/WC India Million tons Other Cumene BTX PX/OX Styrene EDC Caustic Glycols MTBE Methanol *About 1.83 mill. dwt (64 vessels), of older tonnage with IMO class have already been contracted or have tank/side upgrades. This will see the impact figure decrease by approx 6.5 mill tons (based on half of annual voyages taking vegoils/palm oils). Average size of vessels being upgraded: 28,5 dwt

7 Middle East/WCI/Pak exports by destination Excluding coastal India movements The Middle East Gulf build up of export capacity Asia Total Product 1H 5 8,67, mt 1H 9,63, mt 35 3 Million tons MEG-WCI Europe Americas Mill. tons (14%)(18%)(22%)(1%) 1% 9% 7% (14%)(5%) 9% 16% 31% % 47% 5% Import Export Diff. Adj. diff. Adjusted difference in % of export. Oceania RSEA Africa WW 1H-5 1H

8 Main products traded on chemical tankers Average annual rate: 5% (assumed in -11 forecast) Other Oil & Fats Inorganics Organics pol Annex II reclassification Overview Historical developments Fleet dynamics Chemical ket Outlook pol Annex II reclassification Middle East expansion CPP market influence Conclusion

9 Strong correlation (.71) in CPP and chemical rates West $ PMT ,5 mts CPP UKC/USAC WS (left axis) Rdam-US 5, mts Easy Chems (right axis) but not in the East (correlation.5) WS $ PMT ME Gulf-Chiba 3, mts CPP WS (left axis) ME Gulf-Ulsan 1, mts chems (right axis) WS

10 Continued strong CPP fleet expansion Year on year for the CPP fleet: Handy through to Aframax coupled with lower oil demand CPP fleet Year on year % 7% 12% 12% 1% 1% CPP fleet Year on year % 7% 12% 12% 1% 1% IEA oil demand 1.1% 2.% 4.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.%

11 likely to ease in the CPP market near term until MARPOL single hull phase out deadline approaches 1 IEA oil demand CPP fleet Year on year Estimated CPP tanker demand % 1.1% 2.% 4.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.% 4% 7% 12% 12% 1% 1% Arnd 4% >8% >12% 4-5% 5-6% 6-7% Coated Non-double hull % Aframax 12% Panamax 22% MR 16% Handy* 33% *Includes all coated vessel except for core chemical tonnage

12 Chemical market outlook All information in this material is Inge Steensland AS present opinion, and is subject to change without notice. Inge Steensland AS and its employees, agents and subcontractors accepts no liabilities whatsoever for the content and use of this information 7 Continued strong 8 Softening + - Cargo reclassification, (likely to take time until effect settles) Middle East export expansions Stricter age / vetting requirements Middle East export expansions Stricter age / vetting requirements Strong fleet Massive CPP orderbook Continued strong fleet (esp dwt) Strong fleet Continued high CPP deliveries Economic setbacks? THANK YOU! Fr. Nansens plass 7 P.O.Box 1254, Vika N-111 Oslo Norway 9-1 Sideways / firming pol single hull phase out Maturing fleet/increased scrapping Middle East export expansions Further ordering still possible Economic setbacks? Telph istank@steensland.com research@steensland.com snp@steensland.com isgas@steensland.com