EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL AND ITS IMPACT ON TANKERS. José Ramón Arango S. Liquid Bulk Segment October 4th 2017
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1 EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL AND ITS IMPACT ON TANKERS José Ramón Arango S. Liquid Bulk Segment October 4th 2017
2 Agenda Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal Expansion Performance Impact of the Expansion on Tankers The Next Frontier
3
4 Dimensions of Locks and Ships Maximum existing Locks: 4,400 TEU s 33.5 m (110 ) 32.3 m (106 ) m (39.5 ) 55 m (180 ) 12.8 m (42 ) 18.3 m (60 ) New Locks Max Vessel Size: 13,000 14,000 TEU s 15.2 m (50 )
5 Agenda Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal Expansion Performance Impact of the Expansion on Tankers The Next Frontier
6 Expanded Canal Vessel transits (from 26-Jun-2016 to 02-Oct-2017) Container 1,105; 54.2% LPG 592; 29.0% LNG 174; 8.5% Dry Bulk 106; 5.2% RoRo Tankers/Oil Others Passengers 32; 1.6% 25; 1.2% 4; 0.2% 1; 0.0% Total 2,039 Neopanamax Updated as of 02-Oct-17 (inclusive)
7 Expanded Canal Vessel transits (from 26-Jun-2016 to 02-Oct-2017) Container 1,105; 54.2% LPG 592; 29.0% LNG Dry Bulk RoRo Tankers/Oil 174; 8.5% 106; 5.2% 32; 1.6% 25; 1.2% Others Passengers Panamax 4; 0.2% 1; 0.0% 236; 11.6% 2,039 Px 236 2,275 NPx Total Updated as of 02-Oct-17 (inclusive)
8 PCUMS Tonnage (Million Tons) 61.5% October to August Porta Porta conte nedor Container Grane lero Seco Dry Bulker Tanker vehic ulo/r o Ro RoRo Tanqu eros Pasaj ero Passenger Gaser os (LPG) LNG Otros Other LNG LPG Carga Refrig erada Refrigerated General Cargo Carga Gener al FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY % % % 2.5% % 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.6% 4.2% % % % % % 16.7% % 14.2% 19.6% % 35.2% PANAMAX NEOPANAMAX AF2016 AF
9 Agenda Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal Expansion Performance Impact of the Expansion on Tankers The Next Frontier
10 Panama Canal Tankers Traffic FY2010-FY2017 4,000 3, , Number of transits 2,500 2,000 1, , ,286 1,311 1,477 1,418 1,378 1,584 1,777 1,838 0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Chemical/Oil Tanker LPG Carrier Products Tanker Crude Oil Tanker LNG Carrier Chemical Tanker
11 Tanker Traffic FY2010-FY2017 4,000 3,500 3, , 1% Number of Transits 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2,233 2,322 2,478 2,469 2,353 2,755 2,878 2,900 2,900, 80% 726, 20% 539, 15% 159, 4% FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Panamax Neopanamax Panamax Neopanamax Tankers LPG LNG
12 Main Commodities Carried by Tankers FY2010-FY ,000 70,000 LNG LONG TONS OF CARGO (IN THOUSAND) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 LPG Gasoline Diesel Crude Chemicals 0 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 OTHERS VEGETABLE OILS AND MOLASSES CHEMICALS PETROLEUM CHEMICALS CRUDE PETROLEUM DIESEL OIL GASOLINE JET FUEL LPG
13 Diesel Main Routes United States Mexico Guatemala Ecuador Peru Chile
14 Gasoline Main Routes United States Mexico Guatemala Ecuador Peru Chile
15 Crude Main Routes United States Mexico Bahamas Nicaragua Colombia Ecuador
16 Benzene Main Routes Japan United States
17 Neopanamax Tanker Statistics Tanker Vessel Type # Transits Cargo (LT) Laden Ballast Northbound Southbound Panamax Plus 6 246, Aframax , Suezmax 8 151, Total , Japan United States Panamax Plus Mainly Chemicals/petrochemicals Mexico Aframax Crude cargo Colombia Suezmax Crude cargo
18 Liquid Bulk Market Outlook Tanker Time Charter Evolution 45,000 40,000 40,875 35,000 30,000 28,750 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 15,750 18,000 14,625 10,000 12,500 13,000 13,000 5, Jan 2010-Mar 2010-May 2010-Jul 2010-Sep 2010-Nov 2011-Jan 2011-Mar 2011-May 2011-Jul 2011-Sep 2011-Nov 2012-Jan 2012-Mar 2012-May 2012-Jul 2012-Sep 2012-Nov 2013-Jan 2013-Mar 2013-May 2013-Jul 2013-Sep 2013-Nov 2014-Jan 2014-Mar 2014-May 2014-Jul 2014-Sep 2014-Nov 2015-Jan 2015-Mar 2015-May 2015-Jul 2015-Sep 2015-Nov 2016-Jan 2016-Mar 2016-May 2016-Jul 2016-Sep 2016-Nov 2017-Jan 2017-Mar 2017-May 2017-Jul 1 Year Timecharter Rate 150,000 dwt D / H Modern Tanker 1 Year Timecharter Rate 110,000 dwt D / H Modern Tanker 1 Year Timecharter Rate 74,000 dwt Modern Products Tanker
19 Tanker Fleet Capacity Current and Estimated by 2022 Tankers Actual Capacity (in million DWT) Tankers Capacity by 2022 (in million DWT) 26 5% 3, 4% 5, 7% % 87 15% 72 12% % 61 10% Handysize Handymax Panamax Aframax Suezmax VLCC 30, 43% 10, 14% 7, 10% 15, 22% Tanker Fleet Actual Fleet Total Capacity Fleet Tanker Fleet Order Book by 2022 Capacity Added by 2022 Panamax 4, ,680,738 Panamax ,926,914 88% Neopanamax 1, ,374,642 59% 87% Neopanamax ,662,656 56% Postpanamax ,318,999 Postpanamax 95 29,558,212 Grand Total 6, ,374,379 Grand Total ,147,782 Source: Clarksons Research, October 2017
20 Neopanamax Tanker Economics 160,000 dwt Suezmax 50 f 130,000 m. tons US crude oil API barrels WTI ,000,003 Colombian crude oils API barrels Caño-limon ,173 Vasconia ,238 Venezuelan crude oils Bachaquero Heavy ,057 Bachaquero Extra Heavy ,945 Tia Juana Light ,951 Brazilian crude oil Frade ,223 Ecuadorian crude oil Oriente ,504
21 Agenda Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal Expansion Performance Impact of the Expansion on Tankers The Next Frontier
22 Areas with Development Potential Corozal Container Terminal Roll-on Roll-off Terminal Potential for a dedicated terminal for vehicle transshipment in Panama New container terminal to serve more than 5MM TEU. Logistics Park Offers a strategic location for distribution and value-added activities. Bunkering Opportunities to obtain a larger market share in vessel bunkering. LNG Terminal Capitalizes on global LNG flows by offering LNG bunkering to vessels. Competitive LNG traffic toll system will support U.S. to Asia market. Pipelines Opportunities related to the flow of petrochemicals and refined products from one ocean to the other. Vessel Repairs Services Facilities to provide major scheduled ship repairs, routine maintenance or emergency repairs. Top-Off Operations Potential for developing a ship-to-ship top-off operation in Panama. Power Generation Cost-competitive through the use of LNG as alternate fuel source.
23 EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL AND ITS IMPACT ON TANKERS José Ramón Arango S. Liquid Bulk Segment October 4th 2017
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