INSERO QUARTERLY, Q4 2017

Transcription

1 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q Nordic electric vehicle market overview with the latest sales figures, infrastructure overview, and the main market tendencies

2 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q Q4 OUTLINE CAR SALES IN TOTAL Percentages of cars sold across the Nordics: CAR SALES PHEVs and EVs sold in the Nordics: 4,72% 6,80% 0,46% 0,39% 0,91% 5,79% PHEV EV DK NO SW FI 88,48% Nordics Total sales of cars and vans EV 99,1% 93,3% Denmark Sweden 18,17% 19,36% 62,4% 96,34% Norway Finland PHEV 0,42% 3,24% Market share by brand NUMBER OF CHARGING PLUGS Total number of charging plugs across the Nordics: TESLA SC TYPE 2-AC CHAdeMo CCS Other ( 22kW) Others DK NO SW FI

3 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMINOLOGY Charging plug Plugs to be inserted in electric vehicles to charge them Charging point Unit/location, which may have one or more charging plugs EV Electric Vehicle (car or van) PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle BEV Battery Electric Vehicle YTD Year-To-Date Car segments used in Insero Quarterly: A-segment = Mini cars (e.g. Fiat 500) B-segment = Small cars (e.g. Renault Clio) C-segment = Medium cars (e.g. VW Golf) D-segment = Large cars (e.g. BMW 3 series) E-segment = Executive cars (e.g. Mercedes E Class) J-segment = SUV cars (e.g. BMW X5) Van-segment = Vans (e.g. VW Transporter) Subscribe to Insero Quarterly If you like the content of Insero Quarterly and want to receive it in your inbox every quarter, you just have to fill out this form. If you are interested in more detailed analyses, please contact jclh@insero.com

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

5 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORDIC WHAT THE LATEST NORDIC FIGURES TELL US Total number of electric vehicles stock: Check out the figures Q4 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q4 compared to Q3: % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Best selling BEV model: Volkswagen E-Golf with in total sales Check out the figures Best selling PHEV model: Passat GTE with in total sales Check out the figures Infrastructure roll out: The total infrastructure grew 14,61 % Q4 compared to Q3 ( chargers in total) Check out the figures Market leader for EVs in Q4: Volkswagen with 20 % (5.454 registrations in total)

6 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q DENMARK THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM DENMARK Q4 sales: 534 vehicles Check out the figures Sales development in Q4 compared to Q3: + 10,10 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll out: the total infrastructure grew 1,4 % in Q4 compared to Q3 (2.581 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: The new registration tax setup is favouring cars with excellent fuel economy and high safety standards, backing large vehicles with small engines and large PHEVs. The price gap between ICE and EV models is increasing. However, PHEV models are benefitting mainly from the new registration tax with noteworthy price reductions. Most popular BEV: Renault Zoe (third quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Kira Niro (second quarter in a row) Other highlights: Q manged to continue the positive registration development. Despite being 298 vehicles down compared to Q4 2016, the new tax incentives are expected to accelerate the sales of PHEVs.

7 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORWAY THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM NORWAY Q4 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q4 compared to Q3: + 20,96 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: the total infrastructure grew 12,5 % in Q4 compared to Q3 ( chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: Norway decided to abandon the plans for a suggested Tesla tax as a part of the 2018 budget Most popular BEV: VW E-Golf (third quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Mitsubishi Outlander (third quarter in a row) Other highlights: Volvo managed to increase its market share by 6,53 % (14,09 % in total and new registrations) compared to Q3. The VW E-Golf remain the best-selling EV model in Norway with registrations. Increasing its popularity, the Volvo XC60 model managed to achieve new vehicles (compared to 362 in Q3).

8 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q SWEDEN THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM SWEDEN Q4 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q4 compared to Q3: + 43,97 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: the total infrastructure grew 32,8 % in Q4 compared to Q3 (4.733 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: No significant changes were observed in Q4 Check out the figures Most popular BEV: Renault Zoe (second quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: VW Passat GTE (second quarter in a row) Other highlights: PHEVs expanded its dominating position. The VW Passat GTE was accountable for new EV registrations equal to 21,46 % of the total EV market in Q The Volvo brand witnessed considerable interest with a market share of 21,72% equal to registrations. The Volvo development is noteworthy as their market share was just 5,07 % in Q3 2017

9 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q FINLAND THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM FINLAND Q4 sales: 968 vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q4 compared to Q3: + 23,79 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: the total infrastructure grew 1,9 % in Q4 compared to Q3 (947 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: No significant changes in Q4 Check out the figures Most popular BEV: Tesla Model S (fourth quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Volvo XC60 (previously Mercedes GLC) Other highlights: The Finnish EV market is close to reaching new registrations in one-quarter for the first time. The Volvo XC60 claimed the position as the most popular model in Finland from the Mercedes GLC. The BMW models dropped 6,37 % in market share while Mercedes dropped 4,75 % in Q Volvo became the most popular brand with 34,19 % of the market

10 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

11 2. SALES STATISTICS STOCK OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES Nordic The Nordic electric vehicle market had another great quarter in Q4 surpassing Q with a total of vehicle registrations. This resulted in an average market growth of 24,7 % which is significantly more compared the 18,49 % growth in Q3. The total market development over 2017 ends with a combined growth of 53% compared to DK NO SW FI DK NO SE FI TOTAL BEV & PHEV REGISTRED YTD Countries share of total EV stock % YTD The total EV stock increased with vehicles in Q4. The total 2017 EV sales in the Nordic Region reached vehicles compared to the previous vehicles in The C- and PHEV-segments dominated the Nordic EV market in Q4, as they accounted for 77,21% of sales. Q4 confirmed that tax incentives significantly affect EV sales, as the Danish market saw significant sales increase of PHEV models due to the new registration tax system as of November SW 20% FI 2% DK 4% Sweden and its massive fleet of PHEVs are gaining ground, while the Norwegian EV sales is stabilising. Q4 raises the bar for EV sales in the Nordic region; Norway, Sweden, and Finland have their best selling quarter. For the first time ever, Sweden now accounts for 20 % of the market share. 73% NO If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

12 2. SALES STATISTICS ANNUAL SALES OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, YTD Nordic All countries except Denmark had their best selling quarter ever in Q With EV registrations combined in Q4, it is not unlikely that the hallmark is achieved within BEV & PHEV sales per year +40% DK NO SE FI Purchase incentives on EVs are still regulating market diffusion; Danish sales increased after the introduction of the new registration tax system. Norwegian sales are growing with a difference of registrations between the best and worst selling quarter in PHEVs flourish in Sweden and Finland resulting in significant sales growth Countries share of YTD sales 2017 FI DK 4% 1% YTD The total number of registrations in 2017 manged to surpass 2016 with vehicles equalling an increase of 40 %. SW 22% Sweden and Norway drive EV sales in the Nordic region, Denmark remains behind Finland. Market composition is expected to remain the same in The new registration tax in Denmark is expected to increase the PHEV uptake in % NO

13 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q DK NO SE FI EV sales 2017 Nordic The Nordic electric vehicle market saw record quarters in Norway, Sweden, and Finland in Q4 2017, while Danish sales are starting to show promising trends. Consequently, the Danish market managed to grow in Q compared to Q3 2017, but is still 333 registrations behind Q % Sales are increasing; Q4 sales beat all previous quarters in 2017 with a noteworthy mark. Sales growth increased in 2017; year-over-year sales increased with 40 % compared to Nordic EV sales are jumping; both Norway and Sweden made noteworthy registration leaps in 2017 while Finland is increasing in a controlled pace Q Q2 782 Q Q YTD YTD will be an exciting year for EVs: 1. Denmark decided to freeze the tax registration of EVs at 40 % and moved towards a more PHEV friendly registration system. 2. Norway is close to surpassing EV registrations in one quarter. 3. The Swedish market seems to have increased the adoption momentum, and Volvo decided to commit to the development of PHEV technology EV sales Q DK NO SE FI oct 16 nov 16 dec 16 Q Q % Sweden, Finland, and Norway keep delivering; Q beats Q with incredible 25,84 % despite the Danish market remaining at a low level. December was the best selling month. In total electric vehicles were sold across the four countries beating the previous record of vehicles from September For the first quarter ever, the combined Nordic EV sale exceeded vehicles and is close to surpass Both Q1 and Q2 struggled with surpassing sold EVs. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

14 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SALES TYPE 2017 YTD Nordic PHEVs are taking even more control of the market by the end of They are the preferred EV in Finland and Sweden, while popularity is growing in Norway and Denmark. Range, performance, price, and model selection are superior compared to the currently available BEVs Q4 sales by type (BEV/PHEV) BEV PHEV DK NO SW 2017 Q4 sales composition FI +65% Q Q PHEVs are the preferred EV type in both Sweden and Finland; accounting for respectively 86 % and 89 % of sales. BEVs remain the preferred EV in Norway. However, PHEVs are steadily becoming more popular as they now account for 48 % of the sales. Only 44 sold vehicles separates the two types on the Danish market. Norway is still the most BEV oriented country measured on market share. In fact, of the EVs registered in Q4, 52 % was from the BEV segment. The total sale increased by 65 % from Q to Q While PHEVs and BEVs were equally prevalent in Q across the Nordics, PHEVs seems to have extended the edge and is ahead by 18 % in Q The market penetration from Volvo is one of the main reasons for this development as they increased their market share to % in Q PHEV 59% 41% BEV The PHEV segment share is expected to grow in 2018 as sales in Sweden and Finland seems confident, while Norway is adopting more PHEVs than previously. Furthermore, the new tax policy in Demark is expected to improve PHEV market share. New PHEV models are being introduced such as the Kia Niro and Volvo XC60. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

15 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2017 Denmark Purchase incentives regulate EV uptake; sales continue to increase between Q and Q4 2017, however, not as significantly as in the previous quarter. Tesla sales increased noteworthy. The new registration 15 system is expected to have a positive influence towards the deployment of PHEVs. EV sales Q PHEV-segment 280 (49%) Van-segment A-segment 29 (5%) 23 (4%) 123 (22%) B-segment PHEV segment managed to increase its market share with 13 % in Q4 compared to Q3, and is now the dominating segment. The growth is mainly driven by models from Kia, Hyundai, and Volvo. B-segment loses ground with a 20 % decrease compared to Q3 2017, despite Renault Zoe accounts for 118 new registrations out of the 569 in total. Van-segment 70 (5%) 33 (6%) J-segment A-segment 90 (7%) 26 (5%) 55 (10%) E-segment C-segment The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 Tesla also had a good quarter compared to previous sales; sales increased to 59 vehicles for the entire quarter compared to only 26 in Q The two Tesla models now accounts for 10,37 % of the total EV market in Denmark. PHEVs are very popular. They outcompete the other segments and is up 9 % compared to Nine brands are contributing to this positive development and the development is expected to continue in PHEV-segment 547 (42%) 393 (30%) 53 (4%) (4%) (8%) 0% C-segment D-segment J-segment E-segment B-segment The B-segment is completely driven by the Renault Zoe which accounts for 98 % of the segment sales. The C-segment lost considerable market share compared to 2016 and is down 9 %. For 2017, sales are down 33,40 % in total compared to If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

16 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 Norway Norway sets another record; E-, J- and PHEV-segments continue to thrive with Volvo XC60 successfully penetrating the Norwegian EV market. In fact, Volvo increased its market share to 14,09 %. Tesla alone managed to register new EVs in Q which is an increase of compared to Q EV sales Q PHEV-segment A-segment B-segment Van-segment (2%) (5%) 262 (1%) (48%) (24%) (11%) C-segment (9%) J-segment D-segment E-segment Norway raises the bar once again as they bypassed the former record of electric vehicles set in Q with impressive new registrations in Q For nine constructive quarters, Norway manages to surpass former records. The Norwegian market managed to gain newfound momentum as the sales development increased by 20,96, % between Q3- Q which is significantly more than the previous level in Q2-Q at 15,88 %. The C-segment dropped 7 % compared to Q while the E- and J-segment jumped 7 %. The PHEV-segment continued the positive growth development from the previous quarters. The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 A-segment B-segment Van-segment 2% (1.480) 5% C-segment (3.348) % (31%) (722) The C-segment is down by 10 % compared to the beginning of 2017, while the PHEV segment is up 2 % The E- and J-segment both managed to increase their market share over the year compared to the total segments share of They are up 6 % for the year PHEV-segment (47%) (8%) (6%) J-segment D-segment E-segment C- and PHEV segments dominate the Norwegian EV market, accounting for 78 % of total sales in For 2017, sales are up 38,35 % compared to If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

17 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 EV sales Q Sweden Sweden exceeded its previous sales record with registrations in Q PHEVs dominate the market and is just short of registrations. The PHEV segment gained an 86 % market share. Tesla's total 17 market share rose to 4,6 %. The Volkswagen Passat GTE model continued to dominate the Swedish market with a market share of 21,46 %. A-segment B-segment Van-segment C-segment 19 (0%) 314 E-segment 248 (5%) J-segment (4%) (3%) (0%) 95 (1%) Sweden exceeded its record yet again. Sales up 43,97 % with registrations compared to the previous record of set in Q Sweden continues to favour the PHEV models. The Volvo brand successfully penetrated the market and is up % compared to Q with a market share of 21,72 % of the EV segment. PHEV-segment PHEV-segment A-segment Van-segment B-segment 111 C-segment (1%) (5%) (9%) D-segment E-segment (0%) (4%) J-segment 483 (3%) (78%) (86%) The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 More PHEV models contested for the market shares. However, the market leader was VW Passat with a dominating 21,46 % share of the market. Concentrating on BEVs, Tesla sales increased in Sweden. Combined both E- and J-segment saw positive growth in the total number of registration, although they slightly lost a bit of market share. PHEVs contine to securing their position in the market and were up 4 % compared to Q They are now responsible for 78 % of the registrations YTD and remain at the same level as in Smaller BEV segments struggle on the Swedish market. The BEV model of the Hyundai IONIQ did not achieve the same momentum as in Q and is down to just 44 registrations compared to the 165 s in Q For 2017, sales are up 47,34 % compared to If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

18 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 Finland PHEVs breaking records for Finland and EVs are just 32 registrations from reaching new registrations in one quarter for the first time. With a market share of only 11 %, BEVs and especially models with limited range are unlikely to penetrate the market. 18 EV sales Q A-segment B-segment Van-segment C-segment 1 E-segment (0%) 23 (2%) 23 (2%) 43 (4%) 20 (2%) J-segment 0% Second best growth rate in the Nordic Region. EV sales grew with 25,92% in Q compared to Q PHEVs dominated and accounted for 89% of registrations in Q which is 4 % more than Q Driving range seems to be a major issue in Finland. Vehicles with short range account for 8 % of sales in Q The Finish market is just 32 registrations from reaching the milestone of registration in one quarter. 857 (89%) PHEV-segment The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 The PHEV segment market share is close to reach the same A-segment B-segment Van-segment C-segment E-segment (0%) (6%) J-segment (2%) (5%) 0% 98 (3%) level as in 2016 with current numbers being just 1 % down. Compared to 2016, the segments overall share saw no significant changes in For 2017, sales are up 115,73 % compared to 2016 which is the best growth rate in the Nordics. PHEV-segment (83%) If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

19 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE C- AND PHEV-SEGMENTS PHEV-segment sales 2017 Q4 DK NO SW FI Okt Nordic PHEV sales increased significantly in Q4. In the last quarter of the year, PHEVs were the preferred EV type in Sweden and Finland and almost equally popular as the BEVs in Norway. Large car models dominated the PHEV segment Q4 PHEV sales by class PHEV J J-segment (45%) Nov Other E, F, S 341 (2%) Dec (33%) Q PHEV C C-segment +98% Q KIA Optima Mercedes C350 Mercedes GLC BMW X5 40 Ee BMW 330E BMW 225XE 566 (3%) 914 (6%) AUDI Q7 E-TRON 2017 Q4 sales by model 390 (2%) 522 (3%) 315 (2%) 864 (5%) Audi A3 ETRON Other (14%) 449 (3%) 566 (3%) 849 (5%) Volvo XC (6%) Volvo V (12%) Outlander (11%) 771 (5%) 996 (6%) Volvo XC60 GOLF GTE (13%) 19 PASSAT GTE Volvo V60 PHEVs are more popular than ever before. PHEV sales had another winning quarter with a considerable sales increase and were up 98 % compared to Q The quarter started out slow, but sales increased over the period. As a result, the total sales of PHEVs surpassed Q with vehicles. The PHEV segment had a great year and were up 107,81 % compared to 2016 ( ). The PHEV segment was dominated by large car models such as the Passat GTE and Mitsubishi Outlander (20%) D-segment Volvo, Volkswagen, and BMW were the dominating PHEV brands in Q If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

20 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE E-, J-AND VAN-SEGMENTS Nordic Tesla sales increased significantly. The C-segment decreased, probably caused by big interest in the PHEV segment across all Nordic markets % C-segment sales Q Okt Nov Dec AMPERA HYNDAI IONIQ 198 (4%) 590 (12%) i (28%) Volkswagen E-Golf sales continued to grow and were up 6 % compared to Q E-GOLF (45%) 29 5 (1%) (0%) Focus electric B-CLASS ED 541 (11%) LEAF The BMW I3, Nissan Leaf, and Open Ampera declined, particularly in Norway. C-segment decreased by 3 % in total and was down 486 vehicles compared to Q Q Q The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) +187% E- and J-segment sales Q Okt Nov Dec MODEL X (53%) (47%) MODEL S Tesla was up 187 % compared to Q Tesla sales increases heavily with 55,90 % compared to Q The development could be explained by the removal of the threat from the Tesla-tax in Norway. Alone in December, Tesla registered vehicles on the Norwegian market. Tesla Model X is currently the most popular of the two. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here Q Q4 2017

21 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

22 3.CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC CHARGING POINTS AND PLUGS Nordic The last quarter of 2017 showed how numbers of charging plugs available followed the increase of EVs in the second part of 2017 with an overall charging plug increase of 12,15 % across the markets, despite limited development in Denmark and Finland. 22 Number of public charging plugs available (e.g. up to three plugs at one charging point) Tesla SC Type 2-AC ChaDeMo CCS Normal charge <=22 kw) Denmark: Norway: Sweden: Q4 highlights Total plugs increased by 1,4 % Total plugs increased by 12,5 % Total plugs increased by 32,8 % Finland: Total plugs increased by 1,9 % DK Number of EVs per charging plug NO SW FI 18,0 If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here 10,3 6,2 Disclaimer: No completely accurate numbers exist for the charging infrastructure figures, however, Insero has been able to find improved sources including EAFO.eu for the production of the statistics. Insero has no accurate overview of all the types of charging plugs. 4,3 DK NO SW FI

23 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 30

24 5. INCENTIVES COMPARISON OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND CONVENIENCE INCENTIVES Nordic The Nordic countries have added a few new significant incentives in Q4. 24 Overview of incentives Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Specific incentives Denmark Tax incentives Tax incentives 80% reduction in registration tax (until end of 2018 or until new EVs registrations) Tax exemption for FCEV Registration tax limit raised to kr. Financial incentives Financial incentives Tax reduction (0,13 EUR per kwh) for businesses EV subsidies for business and municipalities. Convenience incentives Convenience incentives Reserved parking spaces for EVs Differentiated prices Norway Registration tax exemption VAT exemption Road tax exemption Reduced company car tax (50%) Exemption from VAT (25%) on leasing Free parking spaces Toll road exemption Free public charging Higher mileage allowance No charges on ferries Bus lane driving Reserved parking spaces Fast charging station every 50 km on all main roads by 2017 Sweden Finland Vehicle tax exemption for 5 years* Company tax benefits Registration tax reduction (BEV buyer pays 2,5%) Ownership tax benefits Super Green Car Rebate. EV: Max 4,500. PHEV: Max 2,200** Cheaper parking/free parking *all Euro 5 or 6 level emission vehicles **a subsidy of 35% of the price difference between a low-emission vehicle and a comparable conventional vehicle *** New incentivise are highlighted None None

25 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

26 THEME SECTION, Q THEME Q4 2017: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY Light Electric Vehicles are one of the biggest and quickest developing EV markets in the world.

27 THEME SECTION LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY 27 IN THIS THEME SECTION, WE PROVIDE YOU WITH THE LATEST INSIGHTS FROM THE LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLE (LEV) SEGMENT AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY. The need for personal mobility is rapidly growing in the European municipalities and other areas of the world and so is the use of motor-driven vehicles. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions, sound levels, and traffic congestion increases as demand approaches the capacity of roads, influence the general condition of life of city residents. To solve those difficulties of mobility in a comprehensive way, world-wide emission targets are becoming stricter and urban mobility strategies are being developed. The potential future scenario, where EU municipalities witness a fundamental shift in personal transportation from vehicles to lighter, smaller, more functional and environmentally friendly options, is likely to happen. Light Electric Vehicles are one of the biggest and quickest developing EV markets in the world and could potentially solve many of the difficulties of mobility which cities around the world face in the future. The LEV is a small ground vehicle operated by an electronic engine that utilises an energy storage device such as a battery or fuel cell. Most of the current models are bikes, 3-wheelers and even car-like 4-wheelers, while typically weighting less than 450 kg. As stated by the International Economic Development Council, LEVs are often designed to meet local needs, but are not suitable outside of an urban context or for people who commute more than 32 kilometres a day. Most LEV batteries are lithium ion and can hold a range per charge of kilometres. While this is acceptable for going around the city for a day, it is not sufficient, in most cases, for people who travel from the suburbs or live outside of the city. Nevertheless, the continuous improvement of LEVs should bring the segment closer to making long distant commutes viable. The improvements in the EV technology also had an impact on the LEV segment. Many of the current and future models are moving out of the realm of exciting but impractical to useful and affordable as they are becoming more competitive due to reduced production prices, especially in Asia. However, according to another Horizon 2020 project - Efficient Urban Light Vehicles (EU-LIVE), the European LEV industry has suffered from noteworthy expensive component and subsystem expenses. This is due to only low-to-medium sales quantities per LEV model and a limitation of beneficial carryover strategies, compared to the high-volume passenger car industry. These circumstances cause high purchase prices and make LEVs less attractive to end customers. Nevertheless, some LEV models are not obligated to meet crash tests and other requirements of car homologation, making it much easier and less expensive to introduce new models to the market. In some countries, youths and those with no driver license or insurance can drive them and often to one-tenth of the price compared to a regular car. Source: aasarchitecture

28 THEME SECTION LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY 28 According to the European Horizon 2020 project, RESOLVE, LEVs are a serious candidate to the transportation alternatives, since they can accommodate the typical commuter s demands in the cities due to their modest size and limited weight, which demand limited energy consumption and reduced battery size. The smaller battery provides moderate costs as well as quicker recharge. Nevertheless, this transportation movement proposes new obstacles. Several commuters in municipalities do not consider LEVs as a viable and convenient alternative for their demands. City policies could support LEV adoption, but four limiting circumstances are slowing down the penetration of LEVs: price, power performance, the attractiveness of LEVs, and user adoption. European municipalities are more packed than ever due to the expanding population s need and habitude of engine-driven vehicles. Those vehicles provide the general mobility requirements of inhabitants and commuters. As their numbers grow, traffic jam increases, lack of parking opportunities arises, and sound and emission levels pollute the urban environment. These circumstances influence the quality of life and health of the public. According to the European Commission, one of many vital goals regarding the future of mobility is to remove conventionally-fuelled vehicles in municipalities by Moreover, the use of smaller, lighter, and more specialised road passenger vehicles is encouraged in order to achieve clean urban transport and commuting" (European Commission (2011)). One of the solutions is found in the L-category Vehicles (LVs), also known as powered-two-wheelers, with a significant increasing share of electric (LEVs). About 35 million people in Europe alone regularly travel by PTWs as they provide a real solution to practical demands. They are both smaller and lighter than regular vehicles and continue to be mobile in case of traffic jams. According to the RESOLVE project, over 60 % of trips are for commuting and functional reasons. Time spend travelling can be cut down by up to 48 % by switching to LEVs as some models allows the utilisation of bike lanes. Also, the urban areas can be used far more efficiently. Up to 5 LEVs can fit into one car parking space, creating room for other needs. In fact, many LEVs can be carried by hand as they can be folded and thereby eliminating the average time spent looking for a parking spot, which in some areas can be around minutes or even more. In addition to the previous initial consequences for the LEV drivers, it has been confirmed that a growing traffic percentage of LEVs decreases the general traffic jam and speeds up travel for all vehicles on the streets. Most drivers, regardless of vehicle type, seem to adjust their speed to the current traffic density. If the traffic appears crowded, drivers decrease their speed and accelerate up again when they feel more spacious. The RESOLVE project also determined that an increased share of LEVs would have a direct effect on traffic density, regarding Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE). Focusing on the PCE, in high average traffic speed LEVs perform comparable to cars and take up similar space, however, in slow moving, normal city traffic studies revealed that LEVs use up about 0.3 PCE. As a result, three LEVs contribute approximately as much to traffic density as a single passenger car in the cities. A report by the Transport & Mobility Leuven in 2010 described that a change worth 10 % of car drives moving to LEVs decreases traffic congestion by 40 %. Source: Xoio

29 THEME SECTION LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY 29 Other central mobility areas might also be affected by the potential LEV adaptation, e.g. the use of adjusted vehicles for urban freight distribution. Smaller variations of vehicles appear to be suited for urban delivery as they leave a reduced trail, their movement flexibility. LEV delivery models from small trucks to bicycles are promising technologies adjusted to the urban environment since they have low emissions and reduced noise. Nevertheless, there are disadvantages to their general use, notably higher purchase prices (including insecure secondary resell potential), range limitations, charging time, and limited cargo space. Therefore, early adopters of LEVs in the urban environments may position themselves at a disadvantage compared to traditional freight solutions. Today, the LEV segment is controlled by large corporations with access to distribution. The LEV business is expanding rapidly with the most significant growth in Asia, but is also developing fast in other parts of the world, including Europe. Up until the last couple of years, the majority of LEV sales remained centered in China and Japan. However, as reported by The Economist, in the past few years, both Europe and North America seems to have acknowledged the potential. In 2014, 1.2 million LEVs were sold in Europe. Sales numbers even indicate a market potential of 130 million units on a yearly basis before 2025, consequently, making it one of the world's biggest industries. The market contains many well know legacy companies. However, small startup manufactures are contributing to the industry and Nordic companies are represented in this category. Nordic startups, e.g. Uniti and Garia, are both smaller companies with limited volume affairs, but there are other exciting companies like French Goupil Industrie SA. Nevertheless, despite their smaller size, they are the future as they can avoid old binding contracts with dealerships and have no mandatory corporate relationship with the ICE vehicles preventing them from directing their products to the future. The following section presents the three companies through a short description of their LEV models and their history. In early 2016, Swedish Uniti was founded and introduced shortly after was the Uniti vehicle. Initially, the company began as an open innovation project at Lund University and emerged into an independent startup with Lewis Horne as the CEO. With a staff size of 45 people, they managed to gather 1,22 million in funding from 570 private investors to continue the development of the prototype. The 3- wheeled stylish car is supposed to be the ultimate urban vehicle. The engine delivers a top speed of 130 km/h and is powered by a 22-kWh battery which enables the driver to cover about 300 km. The design complies with the regulatory category of heavy quadricycles (L7e). The 3-wheeled stylish car is supposed to be the ultimate urban vehicle. The engine delivers a top speed of 130 km/h and is powered by a 22-kWh battery which enables the driver to cover about 300 km. The design complies with the regulatory category of heavy quadricycles (L7e). Already a huge success, 727 non-binding preorders have been pledged, worth 14,5 million and the German industrial giant Siemens decided to join in a partnership to produce the vehicle. Furthermore, the joined venture is aiming to manufacture units in a new facility in Malmö by the end of 2018 (Drive Sweden, 2017). The Uniti vehicle Source: Uniti

30 THEME SECTION LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY 30 For over a decade, the Danish company Garia has manufactured zeroemission electric vehicles. Initially focusing on the golf industry, Garia created the ultimate electric golf and leisure vehicle. The different models are designed and developed in Denmark, combining expertise in automotive engineering, driving comfort, and luxury. All Garia vehicles offer a unique design, entirely handmade and built from the highest quality components. The company consists of 34 employees, and one of the majority shareholders is the Danish billionaire Lars Larsen, the owner of JYSK A/S. In the fall of 2015, Garia announced their new utility line with two new models with a defined strategy to increase production volumes, sales channels, and profits. The Utility city variant has a 48V engine with a peak power of 11kW (15 Hp) and range performance of km with a top speed of 45 km/h. In late 2017, Garia announced a three-year agreement with PostNord to produce a new fleet of electric post cars for the Swedish department. The Utility City Source: Garia Goupil Industrie SA was founded in 1996 by Pascal Duclos and Thierry Zerbato. The company design, develop and sells electric vehicles for use in commercial applications. French-based Goupil Industrie sells cars in 18 countries throughout Europe and beyond. Goupil vehicles are compact, manoeuvrable, onroad approved, and available in multiple configurations to meet the unique needs of municipal, industrial, delivery, service provider and other commercial customers. In 2011, GOUPIL Industrie joined POLARIS Industries. Goupil Industrie sells vehicles for GE - one of the other companies in the POLARIS Industries organisation. Thus, expanding GOUPIL Industrie s portfolio with passenger cars in the L7 category such as the E2 model. With a maximum payload capacity of 320 kg and a compact size of just 1.41 m wide, the vehicle is powered by 4x 12v batteries that generate momentum to reach a top speed of 40 km/h. POLARIS Industries acquisition of GOUPIL Industrie allowed them to become a part of a global brand which expanded their network and reaches, both within and outside its existing European sales base. E2,E4,E6 Source: Goupil

31 THEME SECTION LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES (LEV) AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT ON URBAN MOBILITY 31 The possibility of LEVs becoming a central part of the city mobility appears realistic. According to the UN, more than 50 % of the world s inhabitants reside in cities, and by 2050 that portion will rise to two-thirds. Such global urban majority is something that will influence several aspects of living, most certainly, in transportation. Vehicles could shift from being an essential asset for many to less important for city life. It is possible that as the devastating impacts of climate change will lead to further regulations on vehicles in urban surroundings, accelerating the LEV adaptation even more. For example, Oslo decided to ban packing in the center of the city and replaced parking spots with cycle lanes, consequently, eliminating the need for cars and making the city a greener, healthier, and a more comfortable place to be. Regardless of the LEV integration speed into the various city cultures, it is evident that LEVs will be generally applied and accepted over time.

32 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

33 6. SOURCES & CONTACT US Nordic During the compilation of Insero Quarterly, we have used the various sources listed below. Thanks! For more information, feel free to contact us today. 33 CONTACT US Subscribe to Insero Quarterly If you like the content of Insero Quarterly and want to receive it in your inbox every quarter, you can do so by filling out this form. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with: SALES STATISTICS: BIL Sweden Oplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto De Danske Bilimportører JENS CHRISTIAN MORELL LODBERG HØJ Chief Innovator, E-Mobility Phone: jclh@insero.com CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE AND EV INCENTIVES: E.ON Denmark, Clever, CleanCharge NOBIL PowerCircle HELEN Statens vegvesen Norway Skatteverket Sweden Transportstyrelsen Sweden Energistyrelsen Denmark TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto

34 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q INTRODUCTION TO INSERO QUARTERLY What is Insero Quarterly? A quarterly publication visually presenting and analysing: Nordic electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales on a quarterly basis, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Overview of the charging infrastructure roll-out in the individual countries. Status on the national EV incentives. Cross-border price comparisons on specific EV models and conventional cars in several car segments, including vans. Theme section on relevant E-mobility related topics. Who is Insero Quarterly for? Insero Quarterly looks at the Nordic EV and PHEV market at a glance. If you need further information or market analysis, don t hesitate to ask us. Our insight in the Nordic market is unparalleled. Here are some examples of what we can do: Analyse the market potential for specific vehicles or types of vehicles Derive data on customer preferences Go-to-Market strategies for small to medium sized vehicle manufacturers Analyse incentives and causality, and how it will influence your business Industry mapping and technology reports Strategic transport planning / economic and emission analysis Component reports V2X technology and business case analysis. Why is Insero Quarterly relevant for my business? Insero Quarterly provides an unprecedented and continuously updated overview of the Nordic e-mobility market situation, which in turn leads to: Concrete market data to form a basis for a strategic / product decision Cohesive market insights A common work of reference for the industry across the Nordic countries Behind Insero Quarterly Insero offers new solutions, projects, and education within energy and ICT. We are leading experts on intelligent software, energy, and e-mobility. We offer a variety of consultancy services ranging from operational consultancy to strategic analyses and complete business strategies within e-mobility. Smart Grid and V2X These areas are core competences for Insero. We have worked extensively in R&D projects, living labs, and consulting within these fields for several years and use our knowledge and insights to help the energy sector, OEMs, and SME vehicle manufacturers understand the business case and exploiting it. Mobility and strategy E-Mobility is starting to penetrate several mobility markets along with other alternative fuels which will structurally change the way mobility works. We specialise in analysing mobility patterns and identifying sweet spots where new fuel types can contribute greatly to a mobility solution that is better integrated. DISCLAIMER The figures behind the statistical output in this publication are obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we accept no legal liability of any kind for the publication contents, nor any information contained therein, nor conclusions drawn from it by any part. Insero accepts no responsibility for the consequences of any actions resulting from the information in this publication. All rights reserved. The publication may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior consent of the publishers. Content may be used as long as Insero is clearly and visibly credited.