The Norwegian EV success story: Reaching mass market
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1 The Norwegian EV success story: Reaching mass market Ståle Frydenlund, Senior Adviser / EV Specialist Norwegian EV Association Christina Bu, Secretary General The Norwegian EV Association
2 The Norwegian EV Association World s largest members 16 employees 20 years of experience elbil.no
3 200,000 electric cars in Norway! (Sept) BEV PHEV Source: OFV and NPRA
4 BEV market shares by county (Jan-Sept 2017) Troms 10% Finnmark 5% Nordland 15% Møre og Romsdal 13% Sogn og Fjordane 12% Hordaland 31% Buskerud 17% Telemark 18% Rogaland 21% Vest-Agder 21% Aust-Agder 19% Nord Trøndelag 13% Sør Trøndelag 19% Oppland 13% Hedmark 13% Akershus 23% Oslo 28% Østfold 13% Vestfold 17% Source: Ofv.no As of September 2017
5 EV market share all time high (Sep 2017) Battery electric 28% Plug-in hybrid 20% Hybrid 12% Gasoline 22% Diesel 18% Source: Ofv.no elbil.no
6 Market share passenger cars 2017 (by Dec 3) Battery electric 20% Plug-in hybrid 18% Hybrid 13% Gasoline 25% Diesel 24% Source: Ofv.no elbil.no
7 Numbers show: BEV change happens fast Uptake is increasing April 2015: Now: About More than 5 % of all passenger cars are BEVs We have passed the early adopters stage 4,4 % elbil.no
8 Diesel on its way down EV and PHEV emerging (by Oct 8) Petrol Diesel HEV PHEV BEV elbil.no
9 Market share passenger cars 2010
10 Top selling BEV models 2017 (by Dec 3) VOLKSWAGEN E-GOLF 6067 BMW I TESLA MODEL X NISSAN LEAF TESLA MODEL S RENAULT ZOE HYUNDAI IONIQ MERCEDES-BENZ B250E OPEL AMPERA-E VOLKSWAGEN E-UP! elbil.no
11 To what extent do you estimate that your electric car has replaced the use of petrol or/and diesel cars? 40% 30% 33% Average: 82 % 20% 10% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 7% 10 % (n=85) 20% (n=118) 30% (n=210) 40% (n=248) 50% (n=799) 60% (n=648) 70% (n=1356) 80% (n=1872) 90% (n=2452) 100% (n=4013) 5% 11% 16% 20% 2% 1% I have not had a diesel or petrol car before (n=189) Don't know/no opinion (n=86) Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017
12 Why did you chose to buy an electric car? Other: (n=427) Electric cars are trendy (n=2500) The car brand i prefer sell electric cars (n=674) There was an electric car dealer nearby where i live (n=409) Free parking on puplic charging points (n=3596) Reduced fares on ferries (n=1156) Free tollroads (n=7352) Access to bus lanes (n=2526) Lower operating costs (n=9091) Lower annual road tax (n=5785) Competitive price (n=4838) Electric cars are environmentally friendly (n=7599) Electric cars are safer (n=698) I am interested in new technology (n=4744) It was the best car for my needs (n=5773) 4% 6% 3% 10% 6% 21% 21% 30% 49% 41% 40% 49% 62% 64% 77% Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017
13 Mass market is here We have passed the early adopters stage BEV owners very satisfied, and inspire others to buy
14 On a scale of 1 to 10: How satisfied are you with driving an electric vehicle? 60% 58% 50% Average: % 30% 20% 14% 17% 10% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1 Very unsatisfied (n=244) 2 (n=61) 3 (n=42) 4 (n=48) 5 Neither saitisfied nor dissatisfied (n=136) 5% 6 (n=178) 7 (n=582) 8 (n=1683) 9 (n=2002) 10 Very satisfied (n=6938) Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017
15 30% How many people have you inspired to buyan electric car? 25% 20% Average: % 16% 14% 12% 10% 0% No one (n=1790) 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 1 (n=1853) 2 (n=2930) 3 (n=1652) 4 (n=839) 5 (n=691) 6 (n=151) 7 (n=51) 9 (n=17) 10 or more (n=405) 3% Dont know/no opinion (n=1412) Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017
16 How did it happen? Polluting cars are taxed heavily System of bonus - malus Zero emission cars are exempt Parliament: It should always be economically beneficial to choose zero emission before high emission Obtained by the «polluter pays» principle Introducing taxes on polluting cars can finance incentives for zero emission cars without revenue loss elbil.no
17 The key is support Buying or leasing No purchase tax Zero VAT Owning Low annual road tax 60% company car tax Using Toll roads, ferries, parking Bus lanes elbil.no
18 Policies key learnings Positive focus creates a market Chicken or egg? Both! Start taxing emissions Package of BEV incentives Myth busting necessary Political prolongity Slow start, then it moves!
19 Charging infrastructure vs EVs June Public charging points BEVs Fast chargers elbil.no
20 Where are we today? More than publicly accessible charging points, to a large degree Schuko plugs Around 616 fast/semi fast charging stations 818 CHAdeMO points 770 Combo points 322 Tesla Superchargers in 37 locations (64 new since summer) Around cars can fast charge at the same time
21 Do you often experience queues at fast charging stations? 50% 40% 39% 37% Average: % 20% 10% 10% 12% 0% 2% Always (n=141) Often (n=924) Sometimes (n=3524) Rearly (n=3336) Never (n=1051) Source: Norwegian EV owner survey 2017
22 So: Range anxiety charging anxiety Range anxiety New EV owners Charging points Not enough ofthem Will they work? Queues elbil.no
23
24 Fast charging station at Nebbenes, north of Oslo (28 cars can charge at the same time). Photo: Line K. Bergsjøbrenden
25 Fast charging key learnings Initial support crucial Volume means business Network key to mass market Large scale next Fast chargers in Norway elbil.no
26 Challenge: Home charging in cities
27 OEMs now think differently about BEVs
28 Batteries with 24% price drop from 2016
29 Norway s 2025-goal We will stop selling diesel and petrol cars from National Transport Plan : All new passenger cars and light vans sold in 2025 shall be zero-emission vehicles. All new urban buses sold in 2025 shall be zero emitters or use biogas.
30 Our first goal: 400,000 BEVs by ,7% 22,4% Number of BEVs Market share 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Market share 29,1% elbil.no
31 Nordic EV Summit in Oslo Nordic EV Summit reaching mass market february 2018:
32
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