COMPETT. COMPETT - COMPetitive Electric Town Transport. Erik Figenbaum Project Coordinator Compett Institute of Transport Economics, Norway

Transcription

1 COMPETT COMPETT - COMPetitive Electric Town Transport Erik Figenbaum Project Coordinator Compett Institute of Transport Economics, Norway Electromobility+, Final conference, 20. May 2015, Berlin

2 COMPETT Partners, duration Duration: June 2012 to June 2015 Partners Institute of Transport Economics (Norway) Buskerud and Vestfold University College Kongsberg Innovation Austrian Energy Agency Danish Road Directorate Funding Electromoblity+ Transnova/Norwegian Public Roads Administration The Research Council of Norway The Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) The Danish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Higher Education

3 Thematic field, key objective and research question Thematic field: Usage patterns, economic models, actors involved Key objective: Facilitate the market introduction and increased use of electrified vehicles Research question: How can e-vehicles come into use to a greater degree WP 1 Technology, vehicles, infrastructure: status, Austria, Denmark, Norway WP 2 Analysis of travel patterns, Norway and Denmark, Travel surveys WP 3 Noise measurements, Denmark WP 4 Regional case studies in Austria and Norway, User/stakeholder surveys WP 5 Economic modeling work, scenarios WP 6 Dissemination, web page, workshops, conference

4 Norway Policy and incentives The worlds largest and most powerful package of EV incentives Supportive politicians, (1990s) allow testing, initial use (2000s) Industrial development (2010+) Climate mitigation Unique chain of events, «Windows of opportunity» Establishment of «EV regime». Lobbied to get the incentives Established the initial market Kept up activity, when other countries abandoned EVs Sales took off in 2011 when the established market actors started sales of EVs taking advantage of all incentives the «EV regime» had achieved Geels Multi-level perspective framework Theory used to understand EV policies in Norway

5 Norway: Worlds fastest diffusion of EVs EVs, 2% of fleet Rogers Theory of Diffusion of innovations Tool to understand Norwegian EV diffusion and buyer behavior 5

6 Diffusion of EVs Incentives meets user needs Purchase incentives that reduce cost and risk of adoption User incentives provide immediate advantages (buy today use bus lane tomorrow) A strong «neighbour effect», Friends telling friends ICE owners have too little information 34% Early Majority Rogers Theory of Diffusion of innovations Tool to understand Norwegian EV diffusion and buyer behavior

7 Vehicle price 2014 NOK Cost reductions, prices equalized 2013/2014 ICEs: With registration tax and VAT, EVs: Exempted from taxes Think City Li-Ion Nissan Leaf VW Golf Gasoline Citroën C-Zero Kia Picanto Gasoline VW Up Gasoline Mini EV Compact EV Mini gasoline Compact gasoline Sales prices of EVs in Norway compared with gasoline vehicles prices. EVs without taxes. ICE vehicle price includes all registration taxes and VAT. Source: Skatteetaten 2015, various webpages, news articles, historical sales material

8 Days over range limit Norway: The «everyday workhorse» km/year Summer/winter range: 120/80 km 43 days travel over range capability Drivers learn to manage range Most daily travel possible with Evs Multivehicle households (78%) redistribute travel When range is too short Multivehicle households swap vehicles Single vehicle households loan/rent Drive economically Fast charge Source: Compett results from analysis of 2009 travel survey and the Compett user survey Days removed Days remaining

9 Austrian and Norwegian case studies Large potential, owners recommend EVs to others, will buy again Case study - Norway Large potential replacing ICEs with EVs Consumers own 80% of Evs, Owners recommend EVs to others 87% will buy again, 1% will not Vehicle mostly as expected Range limit leads to more planning needed Motives: Low operative cost, best car for my need, environment, fun, Incentives Charges at home, rarely fast charge EVs used as much as ICE vehicles Case study - Austria Large potential replacing ICEs with EVs Fleets own EVs, few consumers Owners recommend EVs to others 94% will buy again (small sample size) Vehicle is better than expected Motives: Environment, fun, marketing (fleet) Few incentives (only fleets), little motivation Charge at home, but infrastructure perceived as a major concern 2/3 of owners use EVs less than ICEs

10 Number of extra EVs in fleet Model - Serapis Serapis: System dynamics-model First / Secondary + vehicles Compact / Family / Luxury, ICE/PHEV/BEV Scenarios for future policies Incentives effectiveness, Norway Utility of each alternative is based on: Purchase price, Variable cost, Comfort Offer of brands and models, Range, travel time, time savings Results for each year Fleet size and market shares Cost and efficiency of policies Impacts Bus Lane Access Purchase Tax Exemption Annual Tax Exemption VAT Exemption Parking Fees Exemption Road Charge Exemption

11 How can EVs come into use to a greater degree? They can already cover most of daily driving They can be used as much as an ICE vehicle Many adaptations available when range too short Multi-vehicle households will most easily adapt Owners like their EVs, will buy again More information needed Purchase incentives effective in speeding up adoption User incentives important, give EVs a relative advantage When price is right and vehicle buyers aware of EVs: Diffusion pattern will be similar to other innovations 11.

12 CPB noise level [dba] Noise measurements urban driving patterns Conclusions EVs are 4-5 db less noisy than ICEs at steady speeds below 20 km/h and 2-4 db when braking below 20 km/h Changing 100 % of the fleet to EVs, reduce noise only 0.6 db at 30 km/h Low speed residential areas are not in noise action maps. 75 Steady driving speed km/h 12. Leaf Golf Poly. (Leaf) Poly. (Golf)

13 Impact and practical implications A deeper understanding of: How EVs can come into use to a greater degree Serapis tool Support decision makers Big potential 45 million European Multivehicle households with home parking

14 Transnational research experience and added values Different incentives and markets allow study of different aspects Research results relevant for more countries Can develop better models The view ahead: Norway: Europes EV lab Example Serapis model: Developed for Austria, Adapted for Norway Better validation and calibration with Norwegian market data EVs 2 million kms every day Rapid growth Changing incentives Consumers own EVs

15 Breakthrough for Electric vehicles! Oslo, Norway June 2015 International Conference - Learnings from a European full-scale laboratory Oslo Science Park, Norway. COMPETT Contacts Erik Figenbaum Senior Research Engineer INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS Gaustadalléen 21 NO-0349 Oslo Norway Erik.Figenbaum@toi.no Reinhard Jellinek Scientific Officer AUSTRIAN ENERGY AGENCY Mariahilfer Straße Vienna Austria Reinhard.jellinek@energyagency.at Lykke Møller Iversen Engineer DANISH ROAD DIRECTORATE Guldalderen 12 DK 2640 Hedehusene Denmark Lykk@vd.dk

16 Back up slides 16

17 Norway - Market shares and fleet shares Market shares in Provinces Source: TØI/OFVAS Map: Statkart.no 7% 4% 12% 14% 12% 25% 11% 9% 8% 33% 23 % 16% 13% 17% 29% 22% 21% 11% 23% 17

18 Extensive EV incentives Economic Exemption VAT 2001 Exemption vehicle registration tax 1996 Reduced annual tax 2005 Reduced company car tax User advantages Free toll roads 1997 Access to bus lanes 2003 Free parking 1998 Reduced rate ferries 2009 Support for charging infrastructure Support for fast charging infrastructure ( )

19 Value of incentives Norway (Tax + 25% VAT) Other countries, 19% VAT VW UP / E-UP COMPARISON NORWAY Value added tax Vehicle registration tax Vehicle price without taxes VW UP 1,0/75 HK, VW E-UP ASG Options included: Metallic paint, Climatronic, Navigation, Tech. package Value added tax Vehicle price without taxes VW UP 1,0/75 HK, ASG VW E-UP Options included: Metallic paint, Climatronic, Navigation, Tech. package

20 Total cost of incentives: About 300 million Euros in 2014 Registration tax exemption: 120 million VAT exemption: 140 million Free toll roads: 16 million Reduced annual tax: 10 million Reduced ferry rates: 5 million