INSERO QUARTERLY, Q3 2017

Transcription

1 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q Nordic electric vehicle market overview with the latest sales figures, infrastructure overview and the main market tendencies

2 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q Q3 OUTLINE CAR SALES PHEVs and EVs sold in the Nordics: PHEV EV DK NO SW FI Market share by brand Others CAR SALES IN TOTAL Percentages of cars sold across the Nordics: NUMBER OF CHARGING PLUGS Total number of charging plugs across the Nordics: ,37% Nordics Total sales of cars and vans ,88% 5,75% EV ,9% 94,8% Denmark 15,6% 16,75% 67,7% Norway PHEV ,70% 0,39% Sweden 99,79% Finland 1,10% 4,10% 0,43% 2,40% TESLA SC TYPE 2-AC CHAdeMo CCS Other ( 22kW) DK NO SW FI

3 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q ABBREVIATIONS AND TERMINOLOGY Charging plug Plugs to be inserted in electric vehicles to charge them Charging point Unit/location, which may have one or more charging plugs EV Electric Vehicle (car or van) PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle BEV Battery Electric Vehicle YTD Year-To-Date Car segments used in Insero Quarterly: A-segment = Mini cars (e.g. Fiat 500) B-segment = Small cars (e.g. Renault Clio) C-segment = Medium cars (e.g. VW Golf) D-segment = Large cars (e.g. BMW 3 series) E-segment = Executive cars (e.g. Mercedes E Class) J-segment = SUV cars (e.g. BMW X5) Van-segment = Vans (e.g. VW Transporter) Subscribe to Insero Quarterly If you like the content of Insero Quarterly and want to receive it in your inbox every quarter, you just have to fill out this form. If you are interested in more detailed analyses, please contact jclh@insero.com

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

5 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORDIC WHAT THE LATEST NORDIC FIGURES TELL US Total number of electric vehicles stock: Check out the figures Q3 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q3: % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Best selling BEV model: BEV E-Golf with in total sales Check out the figures Best selling PHEV model: Passat GTE with in total sales Infrastructure roll out: Combined growth of 4.8% across the Nordics ( ) Check out the figures Market leader for EVs in Q3: Volkswagen with 24 % (5.226 registrations in total)

6 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q DENMARK THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM DENMARK Q3 sales: 485 vehicles Check out the figures Sales development in Q3: + 223,33 % ( ) YTD sales: 741 vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll out: No significant changes in Q3 (2.546 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: Politicians are trying to re-establish EV uptake by freezing upcoming tax regulations until 2018 (or until sales reach EV s). Also, registration tax limit raised to kr. Check out more Most popular BEV: Renault Zoe (second quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Kira Niro (previously Mercedes GLC) Other highlights: Q manged to increase the total sales of EV s by 335 vehicles (compared to Q2 2017). Despite being 131 vehicles down compared to Q3 2016, the new tax incentives is starting to show effect. The positive development is mainly caused by strong sales of the Renault Zoe (206) and the new Kira Niro (132).

7 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q NORWAY THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM NORWAY Q3 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q3: + 15,88 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: Increased by 3,4% (9.568 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: A proposal, presented as part of next year s budget to remove tax exemption of EVs that weigh more than two metric tons, the so called Tesla tax Check out the figures Most popular BEV: VW E-Golf (second quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Mitsubishi Outlander (second quarter in a row) Other highlights: Tesla managed to increase its market share by 6,37 % (14,68 % in total and new registrations) compared to Q2. The VW E-Golf remain the best-selling EV model in Norway with registrations. The new PHEV Volvo XC60 successfully penetrated the Norwegian market with 362 new registrations.

8 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q SWEDEN THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM SWEDEN Q3 sales: vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q3: + 13,67 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: Increased by 4,4% (3.719 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: No significant changes were observed in Q3 Check out the figures Most popular BEV: Renault Zoe (previously Nissan Leaf) Check out more Most popular PHEV: VW Passat GTE (previously Mitsubishi Outlander) Other highlights: PHEVs expanded its dominating position. The VW Passat GTE was accountable for new EV registrations equal to 25,92 % of the total EV market in Q3 which is 11,09 % more than Q2. The KIA Optima witnessed considerable interest with 661 registrations (14,25% market share) in Q3 compared to the previous 124 in Q2

9 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q FINLAND THE MAIN TENDENCIES FROM FINLAND Q3 sales: 782 vehicles (record) Check out the figures Sales development in Q3: + 25,92 % ( ) YTD sales: vehicles Check out the figures Infrastructure roll-out: Infrastructure roll-out: No significant in Q3 (929 chargers in total) Check out the figures Incentives for electric vehicles: No significant changes in Q3 Check out the figures Most popular BEV: Tesla Model S (third quarter in a row) Check out more Most popular PHEV: Mercedes GLC (third quarter in a row) Other highlights: The Finnish EV market is close to reaching the 800 new registrations mark in one-quarter for the first time. The Mercedes GLC is above 120 new registrations for the third quarter in a row which is the first time a single EV car model accomplishes that in Finland. The BMW models accounts for 22,38 % of the EV registrations in Q3 followed by Mercedes at 18,80 %

10 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

11 2. SALES STATISTICS STOCK OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES Nordic The Nordic electric vehicle market had another great quarter in Q3 surpassing Q with vehicles in total with an average market growth of 18,49% which is significantly more compared the 5,77 % growth in Q2 (Denmark is excluded in the general market growth as they landed at a 222,33 % growth ratio in Q3). 11 DK NO SW FI DK NO SE FI SW TOTAL BEV & PHEV REGISTRED YTD 19% FI 2% DK 5% Countries share of total EV stock % ytd 2017 YTD The entire EV stock rose with vehicles in Q3. As a result, the total EV stock grew by 36% in the first twoquarters of 2017 The total stock of BEVs and PHEVs has now surpassed registrations. The total stock of BEVs and PHEVs have more than doubled since 2015 Norway achieved new registrations for the first time in one-quarter, ever. Q3 raises the bar for EV sales in the Nordic region; Finland EV sales surpassed Denmark in Q1 and proceeds to do so in Q3 but the difference is just 297 vehicles. Finland is still registrations behind Denmark in total. 74% NO For the period, Norway accounts for 74 % of total sales while Sweden deems for 19 % followed by Denmark at 5 % closely accompanied by Finland at 2 % If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

12 2. SALES STATISTICS ANNUAL SALES OF ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, YTD Nordic Q was the best quarter ever, and all Nordic countries managed to progress including Denmark, however the set back after the introduction of registration tax on EVs is still clear. Overall this indicates a promising Q4 and 2017 in total 12 BEV & PHEV sales per year DK NO SE FI Purchase incentives on EVs are still regulating market diffusion; Danish sales still low as contradictory political actions create market uncertainty and there is no clear effect of the tax freeze yet Sweden sales continues growing, as they have the biggest difference between the two quarters with 200 registrations Countries share of YTD sales 2017 FI DK 4% 1% ytd 2017 YTD Only registrations separates 2017 YTD from surpassing the total number of registrations in SW 21% Sweden and Norway drive EV sales in the Nordic region, Finland keeps its market share compared to the other markets The Danish market is expected to gain strength in the upcoming quarter due to the new tax regulation freeze. 74% NO If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

13 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC OVERVIEW YEAR-TO-DATE AND Q EV sales YTD 2017 DK NO SE FI Q Q2 Nordic The Nordic electric vehicle market witnessed record quarters in Norway, Sweden and Finland in Q3, while Danish sales are trying to get back on track due to the tax freeze on EVs in Consequently, the Danish market managed to grow significantly in Q3 compared to Q Q YTD % YTD 2016 Sales are increasing; Q3 sales beat all previous quarters in 2017 with a noteworthy mark. Q3 has been a strong quarter across the Nordic Region except Denmark who are down 131 registrations compared to Q despite noteworthy growth in Q Insero does, nonetheless, expect better sales in the forthcoming quarters of 2017 due to the Danish tax freeze. In 2017 Insero expects an increase in sales of more than 25% compared to 2016 across the Nordic Region. The sale increase is projected to be driven by the tax freeze in Denmark and positive EV market penetration in Sweden and Finland and is currently 31 % up compared to YTD numbers EV sales Q DK NO SE FI % jul 16 aug 16 sep 16 Q Q Sweden, Finland, and Norway keep delivering; Q beats Q with incredible 16,98% despite the Danish market remaining at a low level. All markets except Denmark had September as the best selling month. In total vehicles were sold across the four countries beating the previous record from June 17 (7.873) For the first quarter ever the combined Nordic EV sale exceeded vehicles and is close to surpass Both Q1 and Q2 struggle with surpassing the hallmark. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

14 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SALES TYPE 2017 YTD Nordic PHEVs are getting, even more, control in Q3 compared to earlier quarters; already the favored EV type in Finland and Sweden, while popularity is growing in Norway. Range, performance, price and model selection are superior compared to the currently available BEVs Q3 sales by type (BEV/PHEV) BEV PHEV % PHEVs are the preferred EV type in both Sweden and Finland; accounting for respectively 78% and 85% of sales. BEVs remain the preferred EV in Norway, however, PHEVs are steadily becoming more popular as they now account for 46% of the sales Denmark is the most BEV oriented country measured on market share. In fact, of the 485 EVs registered in Q3, 64 % was from the BEV segment The total sale increased by 39% from Q Q which is 17% more than Q DK NO SW 2017 Q3 sales composition FI Q Q While PHEVs and BEVs were equally popular in Q2 across the Nordics, PHEVs seems to have taking a lead by 9 percentages points. Nordics; Norway being the market favoring BEVs together with Denmark while Sweden and Finland prefer PHEVs. PHEV 54% 46% BEV The PHEVs segment share is expected to grow in 2017 as sales in Sweden, and Finland are confident, while Norway is adopting more PHEVs than previously. Furthermore, the new tax policy in Demark is expected to improve PHEV market share. New PHEV models are being introduced such as the Kia Niro If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

15 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO DATE 2017 EV sales Q Denmark Purchase incentives regulate EV uptake; sales increase significantly between Q2 and Q but still remain below previous quarters in 2016, as the Danish tax on EVs remains at 20% in Tesla sales increased 15 but remain at a low level. Van-segment A-segment 7 29 (1%) (6%) B and PHEV segments are driving Danish EV sales in Q3. PHEV-segment 173 (36%) PHEV-segment managed to increase its market share with 5 %, the growth is mainly driven by the new Kia Niro which accounts for 27% of the total registrations. 15 (3%) 11 J-segment (2%) E-segment 44 (9%) 206 (42%) B-segment B-segment gains ground with a 8 % increase compared to Q2, Renault Zoe, accounts for 42 % of the total registrations in Denmark. Tesla also had a good quarter compared to previous sales; sales increased to 26 vehicles for the entire quarter compared to only 12 in Q2. C-segment The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 Van-segment 41 (6%) 67 (9%) A-segment The B-segment had the largest increase in market share and went from 25 to 36 % mainly caused by high sales of Renault Zoe in June (206). VW E-UP is the most popular model in the A-segment PHEV 267 (36%) 20 (3%) 20 J-segment (3%) 0% 56 (8%) E-segment D-segment C-segment 270 (36%) B-segment The PHEV-segment and B-segment is now equally popular. Sales are expected to increase across all segments as the market becomes more stabilized with the introduction of 20 % tax freeze If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

16 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 EV sales Q Norway raises the bar; PHEV-segments continue to thrive with the introduction of VOLVO XC60 and KIA Niro increasing its market share in the EV segment with 3 % compared to Q2. For the first time, Tesla managed to sell more than cars in on quarter caused by strong figures alone in September with the S and X models selling vehicles combined. A-segment B-segment Van-segment 368 (2%) (4%) C-segment (1%) (31%) Norway raise the bar once again; For the eighth consecutive quarter, Norway bypassed the former record set in Q2 at with impressive new registrations in Q3. The Norwegian market managed to gain newfound momentum, as the sales development increased by 15,88 % between Q2-Q3 which is significantly more than the previous level in Q1-Q2 at 1,36 % 16 PHEV-segment (46%) (7%) (7%) D-segment E-segment The PHEV and C-segment continue to dominate the market despite a 6 % drop of the total registrations compared to Q2. Positive growth development of 5% combined in the J and E segment mainly causes the decline in the PHEV segment J-segment The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 A-segment B-segment Van-segment 2% (1.026) 6% (2.425) % (34%) (692) C-segment The C-segment is down by 2% compared to Q2, while the PHEV segment remains at the previous level. The E and J-segment both managed to increase its market slightly compared to the total segment s share of 2017, up 3 % compared to Q2. PHEV-segment (45%) (6%) (5%) D-segment E-segment Both the B, J, and A-segment witnessed no negative or positive development in Q3 If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here J-segment

17 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 EV sales Q Sweden breaks its previous record with 558 registrations and is just short of the hallmark. The PHEV segment is close to obtaining 80 % market share. Tesla's total market share rises to 2 %. The Volkswagen Passat GTE model dominates the Swedish market with a market share of 25,92 %. A-segment Van-segment B-segment 20 (0%) C-segment (6%) (10%) E-segment (0%) (3%) J-segment 98 (2%) Sweden exceeds its record yet again; sales up 13,67 % with registrations compared to the previous record set Q at Sweden continues to favour the PHEV models. The KIA Optima successfully penetrated the market with a market share of 14,25 % of the EV segment.. 17 PHEV-segment (78%) Three models account for more than 50 % of the total registrations VW Passat in Q3 GTE 25,92%. KIA Optima 14,25 %) and Mitsubishi Outlander 11,34 % Focusing on BEVs, Tesla sales increases in Sweden. Both E- and J- segment saw a positive growth in market share although the C- segment dropped 5 % The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 PHEV-segment (74%) A-segment Van-segment B-segment 92 (1%) C-segment (5%) (12%) 60 D-segment (0%) 588 (5%) E-segment 388 (3%) J-segment PHEVs carry on to secure its position in the market and is up 2 % compared to Q2 and is now responsible for 74 % as of YTD Both C, E and J-segment lost shares compared to the previous quarter, combined they are down 3 %. The BEV segment might have an upcoming star as Hyundai IONIQ achieved to register 165 new vehicles in Q3 which is 79 more than the PHEV model. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

18 2. SALES STATISTICS NATIONAL SALES FIGURES BY SEGMENTS YEAR-TO-DATE 2017 EV sales Q Finland Continue to improve its movement towards EVs and is close to reaching 800 new registrations in one quarter for the first time. With a market share of only 15 % BEVs and especially models with limited range are unlikely to penetrate the market. A-segment Van-segment 5 (1%) 17 (2%) 0% B-segment C-segment 43 (5%) 32 (4%) 21 (3%) E-segment J-segment Second best growth rate in the Nordic Region. EV sales grew with 25,92% in Q3 2017compared to Q PHEVs dominate; account for 85% of registrations in Q3 which is 7 % more than Q2. Driving range seems to be a major issue in Finland; vehicles with short range account for 8% of sales in Q3. PHEV-segment 663 (85%) The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) Segments share of YTD sales 2017 A-segment Van-segment B-segment C-segment 8 (0%) 149 D-segment 2% 7% 12 (1%) 107 (5%) 78 (4%) J-segment The PHEV-segment market share is about to reach the same level as in 2016 with current numbers being just 3 % down compared to the segment s share of PHEV-segment (81%) All BEV segments, except the J-segment, are expected to lose market share in Q4 compared to Q3 If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

19 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE C- AND PHEV-SEGMENTS Nordic PHEV sales are increasing; the preferred EV type in Sweden and Finland and still popular in Norway. Number of car models available positively related to EV sales. Large car models dominate the PHEV segment. 19 PHEV-segment sales 2017 Q3 DK NO SW FI Jul May Jun Q % Q KIA Optima Mercedes C (3%) 932 (8%) Other 820 Mercedes GLC (7%) 274 (2%) BMW X5 40 Ee 778 (6%) BMW 330E 2017 Q3 sales by model (14%) (12%) Outlander 760 (6%) (1%) (4%) 493 (4%) GOLF GTE (16%) (6%) (2%) (4%) (4%) Volvo V90 BMW 225XE Volvo XC90 AUDI Q7 E-TRON Audi A3 ETRON Volvo V60 Volvo XC60 PASSAT GTE 2017 Q3 PHEV sales by class Other E, F, S 470 (4%) PHEVs more popular than ever before; PHEV sales had another winning quarter with a considerable sales increase. PHEV J J-segment (35%) (40%) PHEV C C-segment The quarter started out slow, but sales increased over the period. As a result, the total sales of PHEVs surpassed Q2 with vehicles The PHEV segment has an increasing number of popular cars; several models are close to reach the sales mark The PHEV segment is dominated by large car models such as the Passat GTE and Mitsubishi Outlander (21%) D-segment Volkswagen, BMW and Volvo are the dominating PHEV brands in Q3. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here

20 2. SALES STATISTICS NORDIC SALES IN THE E-, J-AND VAN-SEGMENTS Nordic Tesla sales increases. The C-segment is rising, caused by big interest in the Volkswagen E-Golf in Norway % C-segment sales Q Jul Aug Sep HYNDAI IONIQ 619 (11%) AMPERA 289 (5%) i (19%) 65 (1%) 478 (9%) Focus electric B-CLASS ED Volkswagen E-Golf sales grows rapidly and are up 10% compared to Q2 The BMW I3, Nissan Leaf and Open Ampera declines particularly in Norway; C-segment is increasing in total C-segment is increasing in total and is up 236 vehicles compared to Q (39%) E-GOLF 861 (16%) LEAF Q Q The sales figures are divided into segments (numbers above and percentages below) E- and J-segment sales Q % Jul 283 Aug Sep MODEL X (49%) 407 (51%) MODEL S Already 55% up compared to Q3 2016, Tesla sales increases heavily with 75,56% compared to Q2. The development could be explained by the fear of the potential Tesla-tax in Norway. Alone in September Tesla registered vehicles on the Norwegian market. Tesla Model S is currently the most popular of the two. The X model accounted for 63% of all registrations in Q2. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here Q Q3 2017

21 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

22 3.CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE PUBLIC CHARGING POINTS AND PLUGS Nordic The third quarter of 2017 shows how numbers of charging plugs available set the pace for a possible strong second part of 2017, with an overall charging plug increase of 4,8 % across the markets despite no development in Denmark or Finland 22 Number of public charging plugs available (e.g. up to three plugs at one charging point) Tesla SC Type 2-AC ChaDeMo Q3 highlights CCS Normal charge <=22 kw) Denmark: Norway: Sweden: Total plugs increased by 0,0 % Total plugs increased by 3,4 % Total plugs increased by 4,4 % Finland: Total plugs increased by 0,0 % DK Number of EVs per charging plug NO SW FI 17,1 If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with us here 11,4 Disclaimer: No completely accurate numbers exist for the charging infrastructure figures, however, Insero has been able to find improved sources including EAFO.eu for the production of the statistics. Insero has no accurate overview of all the types of plugs 5,3 4,2 DK NO SW FI

23 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 30

24 5. INCENTIVES COMPARISON OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND CONVENIENCE INCENTIVES Nordic The Nordic countries have added no new significant incentives in Q3. 24 Overview of incentives Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Specific incentives Denmark Tax incentives Tax incentives 80% reduction in registration tax (until end of 2018 or until new EVs registrations) Tax exemption for FCEV Registration tax limit raised to kr. Financial incentives Financial incentives Tax reduction (0,13 EUR per kwh) for businesses EV subsidies for business and municipalities. Convenience incentives Convenience incentives Reserved parking spaces for EVs Differentiated prices Norway Registration tax exemption VAT exemption Road tax exemption Reduced company car tax (50%) Exemption from VAT (25%) on leasing Free parking spaces Toll road exemption Free public charging Higher mileage allowance No charges on ferries Bus lane driving Reserved parking spaces Fast charging station every 50 km on all main roads by 2017 Sweden Finland Vehicle tax exemption for 5 years* Company tax benefits Registration tax reduction (BEV buyer pays 2,5%) Ownership tax benefits *all Euro 5 or 6 level emission vehicles **a subsidy of 35% of the price difference between a low-emission vehicle and a comparable conventional vehicle *** New incentivise are highlighted Super Green Car Rebate. EV: Max 4,500. PHEV: Max 2,200** Cheaper parking/ Free parking None None

25 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: EVS30 - Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

26 THEME SECTION, Q THEME Q3 2017: MOBILITY DRIVEN BY ELECTRICITY: EXPERIENCES FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS An optimistic future for EVs appears, as there is no convincing strategy to approach climate change without modifying the way we transport our self

27 THEME SECTION MOBILITY DRIVEN BY ELECTRICITY: EXPERIENCES FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS 27 IN THIS THEME SECTION, WE PROVIDE YOU WITH THE LATEST INSIGHTS FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS OF ELECTRIC MOBILITY IN THE NORDICS Back in 2009, the transportation sector was accountable for 20% of the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in Europe, which motivated the European Commission to set marks such as 10% renewable transport fuels by 2020 and adjusting the average CO 2 emission limits for new automobiles from 130 g to 95 g of CO 2. Not unexpected, with the growing concerns towards climate changes, the advancement of low-carbon and carbonfree technologies for transportation has been giving a top priority. Considered as one of the most effective alternatives for internal combustion engines (ICE), electric vehicles will be essential for reducing emissions in the transport sector and thereby increasing sustainability. While EVs have been around since the 1800s, it was not until 2011 when commercial EVs obtained great interest primarily due to environmental affairs, as well as improvements in battery technology. Originally launched in Japan and the United States late December 2010, the Nissan Leaf made its way to Europe in Nissan sought to make the car appealing to mainstream drivers by giving it a typical five-door hatchback design and by doing so they lighted a new potential segment. To this day, more than Leafs have been sold worldwide, more than in the Nordics. At the same time, several large scale national and international research projects regarding EVs started, seeking to explore new possibilities as well as improve the knowledge of the technology. These usable models and the higher awareness suddenly made the incentives in Denmark and Norway relevant for private people and companies, persuading them to invest in EVs. A milestone was reached in 2015, as the sales of electric vehicles reached the important mark of 1% of the markets share worldwide. Additionally, 2015 also became the year where the quantity of EVs exceeded the 1 million target, ending at 1.26 million in total (IEA, 2016). Since then the curve rose steeply, and in around one year the figures multiplied to 2 million by the end of The increase form a limited number of EVs to 2 million world wide has caught the attention of almost all car manufactures today. But to put matters into perspective, there are more than 1 billion ICE powered vehicles globally. In terms of market share, the Nordics are leading the curve compared to the general worldwide level with current a EV registration share of 10,63% (Q3 2017), mainly caused by strong sales in Norway for the past years, which is incontestably the most successful country worldwide to adopt EVs. Over the past six years the average annual increase of new registered EVs across the Nordic markets is 80%. This annual incease will unavoidably slowdown in the future as the total number of EVs increases in the Nordics. Historically speaking, the transition from ICE to electric vehicles has been driven by the BEV segment mainly in Norway. However, PHEV being the most popular type of EV in both Sweden and Finland, has for the past quarters seen an increase in market share in both Denmark and Norway. By the end of Q the sales composition had tilted towards the PHEV segment with a 54% market share. This movement towards the PHEV segment is primarily driven by range performance, cheaper price and model variety.

28 THEME SECTION MOBILITY DRIVEN BY ELECTRICITY: EXPERIENCES FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS 28 The key players in EV sales in the Nordics, have mainly for the period consisted of large European and Asian car manufactures, but an estimated amount of 28 different companies have been a part of the market contributing in the milestone of EV registrations. The three largest companies measured on car registrations in the Nordics from 2013-present time is Volkswagen, Nissan and Tesla. Manufacturers have followed different approaches to developing EV models. The conversion approach adds the new technology to an existing model while the purpose approach involves a new vehicle design. Volkswagen managed to execute the conversion approach successfully transforming several of their favorite ICE models to new EVs such as the E-Golf and Passat GTE. Over the past years, first movers such as Renault and Nissan, who both chose the purpose approach, lost momentum as other manufacturers introduced a more substantial and enhanced assortment of EV models in different price categories. Where the Nissan Leaf at the end of 2013 had a 47,29% market share in the Nordics, it now accounts for 6,61%. The current market share varies from each country. In Q3 2017, the sales of EVs represented 1,1% in Denmark, 6,2% in Sweden, 0,2 % in Finland and 33,3% in Norway. Few EV models are currently available compared to ICE vehicles. However, almost every car manufacturer now includes 1 or more EVs in their portfolio, with each producer launching at least one new model each year. Small and medium-sized dominate the BEV-market, where mid-size and large SVs dominate the PHEV-market History implies market isn t yet competitive, as purchase prices vary significantly between different models, depending on electric driving range, vehicle size, and brand, and perhaps most importantly market. One crucial thing learned from the past six years is the fact that the EV market across all the Nordics is hugely fragile and widely depends on government incentives and purchasing subsides. The purchases of EVs plunged in Denmark at the beginning of 2016 caused by the progressive phasing out of tax breaks on EVs. This decision more or less eliminated the demand for serval quarters going from 624 new registrations in Q followed by 242 the year after to just 106 in Q Although, on April 18, 2017, having taken note of the declines in registrations, the authority chose to adjust the tax laws again. The subsides dictates the market. Norway, for example, has seen a high demand for BEVs in past years, although recent changes to Norwegian EV subsidies saw a substantial shift in 2015 towards PHEVs which, as a consequence, grew 164% from 2015 to 2016 while BEV only managed to gain 6% (IEA 2017). The transition to a postsubsidy era is a significant threat to the whole EV market. The question is, will history repeat itself as seen in Denmark? The timing of the movement will inevitably have an impact. Despite the environmental gains and increasing quantity of available EV models, users remain, to some extent, unconvinced to acquire an EV, in fact, there are numerous causes why they continue to be unwilling. These reasons essentially focus on cost, user requirements, limited information and technological uncertainty compared to ICE vehicles. Concentrating on costs, an EV can be up to several thousand costlier than the equivalent ICEmodel even with substantial subsides. MERCEDES-BENZ AUDI Other RENAULT 7% 4% 5% VOLVO 5% BMW 5% 11% MITSUBISHI 12% 12% TESLA EV market share by brand from 2013-present time 25% VOLKSWAGEN 14% NISSAN

29 THEME SECTION MOBILITY DRIVEN BY ELECTRICITY: EXPERIENCES FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS 29 Caused by the expensive battery among other reasons, the price difference proceeds to be a significant barrier despite considerable progress towards increase of efficiency and lowering production costs. Furthermore, most buyers tend to concentrate on purchase prices while overlooking the reduced running costs such as maintenance and electricity vs petrol prices. Questions regarding the duration of existing fiscal incentives are also a barrier, as the value gained from, e.g. free charging and parking spots, is impossible to monetize as the incentives are at constant risk of being removed. Even though the assortment of EVs is improving with most OEMs now contributing, there is still a significant gap between the number of models within the ICE and EV segment. Also, generated by the restrained market seize, most models are limited on customization options resulting in limited possibilities to reduce prices by removing equipment. Potential customers acknowledge two main causes for why they would hesitate to invest in an EV alternatively of an ICE vehicle. First, EVs are not meeting the daily requirements, especially concerning range and charging boundaries. Despite the fact that the driving range of most EVs is more than adequate for most commuting, customers nevertheless overestimate their minimum requirements. Secondly, despite being more than 150 years old, the technology is still deemed almost new and consequently underdeveloped. It's believed that significant elements of the technology are uncertain such as charging availability and cost of ownership. Battery life and duration is, nonetheless, the most critical area as this question remains associated with high costs. Buyers are anxious that the battery degradation will result in a huge drop in residual value. Mitigated by years of optimization and improvement, before-mentioned risks does not affect ICEvehicle ownership and is therefore, consequently, considered tolerable. An optimistic future for EVs appears, as there is indeed no convincing strategy to approach climate change without changing Transportation. Movements are happening within the EV segment, from being regarded as exclusive for the rich or idealists just recently, to now becoming accepted by all social groups. A series of recent statements, by car OEM's and world leaders, offer a genuine commitment A series of recent statements, by car OEM's and world leaders, offer a genuine commitment to the transformation process of the transport sector towards a more environmentally orientated future. Analysts from Bloomberg predict that electric vehicles will become price competitive with ICE vehicles even with the absence of government subsidies in The commitment requires actions, auto OEM's such as Tesla, Volkswagen and Volvo are currently preparing a series of new and innovative EV models with a focus, on price reduction and more functional design compared to the predecessors. Volvo stated that they plan to sell a total of 1 million electrified cars by 2025, where the number now is in the Nordics. Volvo also proclaimed the end of the solely combustion engine-powered car by 2019, however, they did not provide a timetable on when they plan to turn off the internalcombustion engines finally (Guardian Media Group, 2017). The Volkswagen emissions scandal raised awareness on the high levels of pollution being emitted by ICE vehicles, especially diesels models. It could be argued that the scandal showed that limits of the possiblities with the diesel and petrol technology. As a result of the scandal, several European counties including, England, Germany, France while the Netherlands consider legal restrictions onicevehicles in the future CAR SALES IN TOTAL Percentages of cars sold across the Nordics Q3 2017: 89,37% 4,88% 0,70% 5,75% 0,39% 98,9% 94,8% Denmark Sweden 15,6% 16,75% 67,7% 99,79% Nordics Norway Finland Total sales of cars and vans EV PHEV 1,10% 4,10% 0,43% 2,40%

30 THEME SECTION MOBILITY DRIVEN BY ELECTRICITY: EXPERIENCES FROM THE PAST SIX YEARS 30 As a consequence of the Paris Agreement, Norway has the most aggressive plans as they intend to go 100 % zero-emissions by 2030 while Germany and other countries push to end sales of gas and diesel cars by Skeptics may regard those statements as wishful thinking. Everything considered, just 1.1 % (10,63 % in the Nordics) of all new cars registered globally in 2016 were EVs. Furthermore, several of the more popular EV models are still noteworthy expensive to buy compared to the fossil-fuel version of the same vehicle. EVs still encounter challenges, however, they managed to gain ground significantly quicker than was believed possible just a few years back. In 2016, there were two million EVs registered worldwide, up 60 percent from 2015, according to International Energy Agency (IEA). In the same period, the EVs registered in the Nordics rose 61% from to The expense of batteries, the most costly component of the vehicle, declined by more than 50 % between 2012 and 2016, according to IEA. Researchers state the price of EVs will be at equivalent level with ICE vehicles if battery prices approach the 85 per kilowatt-hour mark, which by experts is assumed likely to happen in just a few years, especially when Tesla indicates that they are capable of producing batteries at the 110 mark. Also, Toyota intends to commercialize solid-state EV batteries by the early 2020s (GTM,2017). in the next 10 to 20 years the EV business will possibly begin development from initial deployment to mass market adoption. Estimates of political intentions, OEM commitments and the current progress on electric car deployment appear to strengthen these positive signs; intimating that the EV stock may vary between 9 million and 20 million by 2020 and within 40 million and 70 million by (IEA,2017) Advancing beyond early market developments for EVs demand policy changes. As battery prices decline, EVs will become more cost competitive. The requirement for vehicle buying incentives will vanish, and subsidies for EVs will be revoked as registration numbers increase. As the number of EVs registered advances, incomes received from traditional fuel taxes will also decline. Securing that infrastructure income by these revenues remains to be developed, and such movement requires a shift in the way these resources are obtained. (IEA,2017) Not all industries will embrace the movement from ICE to EV transportation. The fossil fuel segment will most likely have a defensive market strategy as their business base will be disrupted by the new market conditions (Forbes, 2017). However, anyone who considers doing business within the vehicle industry in the future will transfer themselves across to electrification sooner or later.

31 TABLE OF CONTENTS INSERO QUARTERLY, Q EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NORDIC AND NATIONAL 5 2. NORDIC SALES STATISTICS FROM Q CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE OVERVIEW NATIONAL INCENTIVES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSERO QUARTERLY THEME: EVS30 - Mobility driven by electricity SOURCES & CONTACT US 31

32 6. SOURCES & CONTACT US Nordic During the compilation of Insero Quarterly, we have used the various sources listed below. Thanks! For more information, feel free to contact us today. 32 CONTACT US Subscribe to Insero Quarterly If you like the content of Insero Quarterly and want to receive it in your inbox every quarter, you can do so by filling out this form. If you are interested in a more detailed analysis, get in touch with: SALES STATISTICS: BIL Sweden Oplysningsrådet for Veitrafikken AS TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto De Danske Bilimportører JENS CHRISTIAN MORELL LODBERG HØJ Cheif Innovator, E-Mobility Phone: jclh@insero.com CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE AND EV INCENTIVES: E.ON Denmark, Clever, CleanCharge NOBIL PowerCircle HELEN Statens vegvesen Norway Skatteverket Sweden Transportstyrelsen Sweden Energistyrelsen Denmark TRAFI Liikenteen Turvallisuusvirasto

33 INSERO QUARTERLY, Q INTRODUCTION TO INSERO QUARTERLY What is Insero Quarterly? A quarterly publication visually presenting and analysing: Nordic electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales on a quarterly basis, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Overview of the charging infrastructure roll-out in the individual countries. Status on the national EV incentives. Cross-border price comparisons on specific EV models and conventional cars in several car segments, including vans. Theme section on relevant E-mobility related topics. This time it is a political status on banning fossil-fueled cars. Who is Insero Quarterly for? Insero Quarterly looks at the Nordic EV and PHEV market at a glance. If you need further information or market analysis, don t hesitate to ask us. Our insight in the Nordic market is unparalleled. Here are some examples of what we can do: Analyse the market potential for specific vehicles or types of vehicles Derive data on customer preferences Go-to-Market strategies for small to medium sized vehicle manufacturers Analyse incentives and causality, and how it will influence your business Industry mapping and technology reports Strategic transport planning / economic and emission analysis Component reports V2X technology and business case analysis. Why is Insero Quarterly relevant for my business? Insero Quarterly provides an unprecedented and continuously updated overview of the Nordic e-mobility market situation, which in turn leads to: Concrete market data to form a basis for a strategic / product decision Cohesive market insights A common work of reference for the industry across the Nordic countries Behind Insero Quarterly Insero offers new solutions, projects and education within energy and ICT. We are leading experts on intelligent software, energy and e-mobility. We offer a variety of consultancy services ranging from operational consultancy to strategic analyses and complete business strategies within e-mobility. Smart Grid and V2X This area is a core competence for Insero. We have worked extensively in R&D projects, living labs and consulting within this field for several years and use our knowledge and insights to help the energy sector, OEMs and SME vehicle manufacturers understand the business case and exploiting it. Mobility and strategy E-Mobility is starting to penetrate several mobility markets along with other alternative fuels which will structurally change the way mobility works. We specialise in analysing mobility patterns and identifying sweet spots where new fuel types can contribute greatly to a mobility solution that is better integrated. NEXT EDITION The next edition of Insero Quarterly (Q4 2017) will be out in early January DISCLAIMER The figures behind the statistical output in this publication are obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable. However, we accept no legal liability of any kind for the publication contents, nor any information contained therein, nor conclusions drawn from it by any part. Insero accepts no responsibility for the consequences of any actions resulting from the information in this publication. All rights reserved. The publication may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior consent of the publishers. Content may be used as long as Insero is clearly and visibly credited.