Automotive Industry. Slovakia. EHSK Analysts team Peter Kellich and Andrej Krokoš. April 2017

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1 Automotive Industry Slovakia EHSK Analysts team Peter Kellich and Andrej Krokoš April 2017

2 Overview: Automotive industry in Slovakia key facts Demand context and actual situation Trade-restrictions-related risks for the automotive industry Medium and long term global trends Opportunities for Slovak automotive industry SWOT Analysis Outlook for the sector Insolvencies in Slovak automotive industry

3 Automotive industry in Slovakia key facts The whole automotive sector has a strategic importance for Slovak economy 129,000 were working for the automotive industry in This includes 1,470 R&D staff. In total, over 250,000 jobs are dependent on the automotive industry The number of R&D staff is expected to rise by over 17% in 2017 Automotive industry accounts for 44% of total industrial production in Slovakia and 35% of total industrial export The number of cars produced in Slovakia slightly increased in 2016 to an all-time-high 1,040,000 units 3 established automotive producers: VW, PSA Peugeot Citroen, and Kia Motors. Another one (Jaguar Land Rover) plans to start production in All 3 already-established companies produce wide portfolio of models, which are successful on target markets 300+ automotive suppliers, mainly located in the western part of the country The new Jaguar Land Rover plant will further expand the automotive suppliers network The Slovak government provides investment incentives for both production plants and R&D centers Source: ZAP SR (Association of Slovakia s Automotive Industry), KPMG

4 Demand context and actual situation Driven by demand for cars in Europe and overseas. The five largest export markets for cars made in Slovakia are Germany, France, China, UK and US Relatively low dependence on the domestic market Highly sensitive to economic cycles Sales of cars in Europe expanded by 7% in For 2017 a zero growth is expected mainly due to the Brexit effect and end of Spain s incentive regime The US car market grew only marginally in 2016 by 0.2%, we expect a contraction of 1% in 2017 The market in Russia contracted by 11% in 2016, a subtle recovery is expected for 2017

5 Trade-restrictions-related risks for the automotive industry BREXIT (from 2018): Risk of the so called hard BREXIT (i.e. BREXIT without free trade agreement) increased in the recent months, mainly due to conflicting views on free movement of people between EU and UK Exports to the USA: US Administration has on several occasions revealed intention to introduce tariffs on imported cars. Although the implementation of such plans has not started yet, the potential risks should not be underestimated, especially when we take into account that US is the world s largest car importer Potential consequences for the automotive sector: In both cases, tariffs would not only hit the Slovak OEMs and their suppliers but also Slovak direct and indirect suppliers of OEMs in the other EU countries (e.g. Germany), as well as other companies in the whole supply chain As Slovakia and the EU as well are net car exporters to both the UK and the US, the possible reciprocal tariffs (for imports to the EU) would not sufficiently offset the fallout of the export demand In case import tariffs are introduced by US, negative impact mainly on premium brands of VW group can be expected Possible import tariffs to the UK may impact practically all models of all producers Trade restrictions on larger scale could potentially slow down economic growth in Europe and thus hit also the automotive sector

6 Medium and long-term global trends 1. Increasing popularity of electric and hybrid vehicles: Global trends: Global demand for electric and hybrid vehicles is rapidly rising Practically every manufacturer is investing significantly in development of electric/hybrid models For some models, demand currently exceeds production capacities (e.g. Tesla took about 370,000 pre-orders for its Model 3, although first deliveries are expected only in 2018) Consumer preferences for electric vehicles are supported by a number of factors; especially driving performance of electric vehicles (faster acceleration), lower costs of ownership (lower costs for fuel, lower maintenance costs and in many counties also lower road taxes and registration fees) and government support (e.g. parking spots reserved for electric vehicles only, possibility to drive in buses-only lanes etc.). Dieselgate has raised public awareness about negative environmental impact of diesel emissions Some countries and cities in Europe are introducing plans to restrict access of older diesel vehicles to city centres. The long-term intentions are to restrict sales of diesel or even any combustion engine vehicles. Slovakia: The Slovak government has introduced financial incentives for byers of electric vehicles ( 5,000) and plug-in hybrid vehicles ( 3,000).

7 Medium and long-term trends 2. Autonomous driving Autonomous cars will benefit from a growing demands on safety 90% of fatal accidents are caused by driving errors. Autonomous cars thus present huge opportunity in the market Slovakia already intends to build-up a testing road for autonomous vehicles between Bratislava (SK) and Brno (CZ) 3. Digitalization and automation of production and logistics Significant number of jobs (especially jobs requiring low qualification) are aimed to be eliminated in the medium and long-term due to automation of production The requirements on qualification of workforce will increase in the future (i.e. the share of qualified workers on the total workforce will be significantly higher) Sources: Forbes Magazine

8 Opportunities for Slovak automotive industry Tesla will choose a location for its gigafactory in Europe in 2017 In its recent letter to shareholders, Tesla Motors announced it will finalize a location for its gigafactories no. 3,4 and possibly 5 in One of these gigafactories (producing both vehicles and batteries) will be located in Europe, according to an earlier announcement of Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla. We can reasonably expect that the gigafactory may be located in the CEE region for a number of reasons: established supplier base, favourable tax environment, proximity to key European markets, stable political environment and low labour costs. The recently discovered lithium deposits (the biggest in Europe) in the Czech Republic might also influence the decision. Whether Tesla will decide for Slovakia or other CEE country, the European gigafactory will in any case present a huge opportunity for the automotive suppliers located in Slovakia.

9 SWOT Analysis Strengths Proximity to key European markets Good highway infrastructure in the western part of the country, connected to the Czech, Austrian and Hungarian highway networks Low labour costs in Slovakia Extensive network of suppliers Continued global market growth despite challenges Recovery in Europe after several years of decline Weaknesses Lack of workers due to saturation of the labor market Restrictions on employment of workers from non-eu countries and slow process of evaluation of work permits Highway that will connect eastern and western Slovakia is not yet completed and expectations are for 2022 at the earliest The sector is highly sensitive to economic cycles High level of investments in new technology, clean energy and autonomous vehicles Opportunities New plant of Jaguar Land Rover (from 2018) In 2017 Tesla will finalize location for its European gigafactory. Reform of higher education system, which would increase the number of graduates with technical background Higher government support for R&D Structural increase of demand for cars resulting from introduction of new technologies Threats Risk of Brexit without free-trade treaty between UK and EU Risk of increasing trade barriers in the US market The home countries of automotive producers have interest to keep jobs at home Low unemployment rate creates pressures on labour costs

10 Outlook of the sector 1Q Q Q Q Q Q 2017 Low risk: sound fundamentals; very favorable or fairly good outlook. Portfolio Euler Hermes Slovakia. Payment behaviour Euler Hermes Slovakia Number of indemnified cases 2016 Total amount of indemnified cases 2016

11 Insolvencies in Slovak automotive industry

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