FUTURE OF (US) PV MANUFACTURING: APPLIED MATERIALS PERSPECTIVE

Transcription

1 FUTURE OF (US) PV MANUFACTURING: APPLIED MATERIALS PERSPECTIVE National Academies/DOE April 23, 2009

2 Applied Materials Overview Applied Materials is the global leader in Nanomanufacturing Technology solutions for the fabrication of: Semiconductor chips Flat panel displays Wafer & TF solar photovoltaics Flexible electronics Energy efficient glass Net Sales (past 4 qtrs.) incl. Energy & Env Solns RD&E (rolling 5 years) Worldwide Locations $7,357 M $989 M $5,312 M 21 Countries, ~100 locations Headquartered in Silicon Valley Manufacturing in Europe, Israel, Asia and United States 2

3 Moore's Law and VLSI Learning Curve $ Cost per Transistor vs. Number Produced $1B F 1n$ 1 1T (Adapted from G. Moore, ISSCC 2003) $ WW R&D Spending Per Node (Chip & Equipment) nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 8000 nm 5000 nm 4000 nm 3000 nm 2000 nm 1500 nm 1250 nm 1000 nm 800 nm 600 nm 350 nm 250 nm 180 nm 130 nm 90 nm 65 nm $1M $1T (Source: VLSI Research) 3

4 Cost Per Function Drivers & Lessons Cost Cost Function Process Cost Cost Area Area (Good) (Good) Function Area Area Substrate Size & Cost Tool Productivity Consumable Costs Utility Costs Factory Scale Line Yield Factory Management Materials Innovation Process Innovation Process Uniformity Device Design Closed Loop Control Nanomanufacturing technologies underlie IC and FPD cost & adoption Demand "waves" have been critical to continual investment & progress Some level of standardization is important to gain critical mass Large area tooling can be a major factor when process cost is significant Factory sites do not necessary imply manufacturing technology ownership 4

5 Solar Learning Curve: Module Cost/Watt Module Price (2006 $/Wp) $100 $10 $1 Production line size (Megawatts per Year) Lines Per Factory Historical Prices (csi dominated) 1980 Polysilicon shortage ,000 10, ,000 1,000, (1980) 2 > $1/kWh equivalent electricity cost c-si Thin Film 2007 <20 GW Cumulative Production (MWp) 5 (2000) 3 50 (2005) 4 Almost 10X cost reduction has been achieved through: 1) Demand initiatives 2) Continuous innovation 3) Manufacturing scale not by waiting for a miracle 100 (2010) 10 >100 GW 5 Source: Adapted from NREL

6 c-si Wafer-Based PV Manufacturing Top 20 Capacity-Add Plans By MW (2008+) 8% 8% 35% 21% 5% 33% (by HQ Location) Europe China Japan 6% Other Asia US 49% Wafering 35% Cells (as of 10/08) Si SiN No Defects Distribution Cell Efficiency Thin Wafers Adv Cells/Processes High Throughput Tools Factory Control 6

7 Applied SunFab Production Line Contracts SunFab 5.7m2 TF Module Factories Glass Substrate Transparent Conductor Amorphous Silicon Microcrystalline Silicon Back Contact (NASA/SSE 2005) First Contract Signed in 2007, 14 Projects, 5 Sites in Production 7

8 GW Scale SunFab TF PV Module Factory Consumes 500 tons of glass per day PV factory (111 acres) is larger than the Magic Kingdom at Disney World (107acres) Produces 6,000 modules per day or enough to cover 7 ½ football fields per day 20% Cost/W Reduction From Scale is equivalent to: ~ 1 Year Earlier Parity or 1%+ module efficiency gain 8

9 2008 Top 10 PV Cell + Module Manufacturing Equipment Suppliers In US$ by HQ Location 1. Applied Materials (US) $455M 22% 2. Roth & Rau (Germany) $275M 3. Centrotherm (Germany) $270M Oerlikon (Switzerland) Ulvac (Japan) $250M $240M 12% 6. Manz Automation (Germany) $140M 66% 7. Schmid (Germany) $125M 8. Von Ardenne (Germany) $120M RENA (Germany) 3S Solar Systems (Switzerland) $85M $70M Europe China Japan Other Asia US (Source: VLSI Research, Feb 2009) 9

10 What Could Help Grow US PV Manufacturing? Demand side is the key Account for true future cost time of day/year, fossil fuel cost uncertainties, carbon cost, value of distributed power Multi-year generation contracts which can average forward module costs Progressive and enforceable renewable electricity standards Appropriate cost mechanism for carbon Refundability of renewable credits Clean energy bank for low interest loans on solar projects Manufacturing/R&D specific initiatives Renewable manufacturing incentives Collaborative government, industry, university R&D with appropriate balance of evolution vs. high risk/disruption Applied Materials' newly completed solar energy system in Sunnyvale, CA is one of the largest corporate solar power installations in the US 10

11 ''If a guy took out a piece of glass, poured some fluid on it, held it up to the sun and got some voltage off it, he made a headline and got funds. Those days are over. It's time for big money commitments." J. Robert Maxwell, Westinghouse Director of Solar Programs as quoted in an article by Thomas L. Friedman in The New York Times, Aug Now really is the time 11

12 12