Critical Mass. Ian Hoffbeck IEEE USA
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1 Critical Mass Ian Hoffbeck IEEE USA
2 Introduction Japan 7% Estimated 2009 Global PV Market U.S. 10% U.S. 8% Estimated 2009 Production Capacity Rest of World 13% Europe 31% Rest of World 17% Europe 66% Rest of Asia 9% Japan 12% China 27%
3 Economic Growth On-Shore Manufacturing Create Jobs Ingot Growth 25 50/MW Wafer Slicing 100/MW Module Lamination System Installation /MW 250/MW
4 Improve Electrical Grid Reliability Grid Security Offset Infrastructure Upgrades
5 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
6 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
7 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
8 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
9 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
10 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
11 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
12 Improve Electrical Grid One Hour Electricity Loss Sector Cost Cellular Communications $41, Telephone Ticket Sales $72, Airline Reservation System $90, Semiconductor Manufacturer $2,000, Credit Card Operation $2,580, Brokerage Operation $6,480,000.00
13 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
14 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
15 Improve Electrical Grid Generation Transmission Distribution
16 Technological Growth Maintain Technical Leadership Mass Energy Storage Smart Grid
17
18 Cost Efficiency % 28 Efficiency Masushita RCA Monosolar Boeing Boeing 1980 Kodak University of Maine RCA RCA RCA RCA Westinghouse RCA ARCO Kodak Boeing RCA Solarex Spire 1985 Solarex Stanford ARCO AstroPower AMETEK Boeing UNSW Georgia Tech University So. Florida Photon Energy 1990 Boeing UNSW Sharp UNSW Euro-CIS 1995 UNSW Georgia Tech NREL United Solar UNSW NREL Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 14x concentration UNSW NREL NREL AstroPower United Solar 2000 NREL NREL NREL
19 Cost Efficiency $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 FSLR Module Cost Per Watt Manufacturing Costs FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 Q109
20 Cost Efficiency Manufacturing Costs Cost of Electricity $0.100/kWh $0.075/kWh $0.050/kWh
21 Risk Manufacturers Manufacturing Capital VC and Banks ROI Strong Demand
22 Risk Technology Creation Manufacturers Entrepreneurs Market-Focused Business & Product Development Early Commercialization CASH FLOW SALES Cash Flow Valley of Death DOE/NREL and States PUBLIC SECTOR Entrepreneurial and Seed/Angel Investors Venture Capitalists Stock Owners PRIVATE SECTOR
23
24 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
25 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
26 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
27 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
28 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
29 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
30 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
31 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
32 Subsidy Production Based Temporary Federally Funded Metered Feed In Tariff Regional Long Term Competitive Front Loaded
33 Electricity Pricing
34 R&D Consortia Industry Consortia Academia Government
35 Recap Benefits Economic Growth Electrical Reliability Technological Growth Barriers Cost Risk Actions Subsidy Electricity Pricing R&D Consortia
36
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