Industry interest in PV Performance and Reliability

Transcription

1 IEA-TASK 13: PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS IEA-PVPS Workshop on Photovoltaic Performance and Reliability PtJ, Berlin, Germany, September 25-26, 28 German Solar Industry Association Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft BSW-Solar Industry interest in PV Performance and Reliability Gerhard Stryi-Hipp Managing Director German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar) Stralauer Platz 34, 1243 Berlin, Germany Tel , Fax stryi-hipp@bsw-solar.de TASK Represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal energy and photovoltaics sectors VISION A worldwide sustainable energy supply provided by solar energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization TIME Over 25 years of activity in the solar energy sector MEMBERS More than 6 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business HEADQUARTERS Berlin BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 2 Industry Interest in PV Performance and Reliability I Most of the support schemes are based on the electricity production of the PV system => Customers satisfaction is depending on real solar output over the expected lifetime of 2 years PV module producers are usually offering a power guarantee over 25 years and have to build up reserves for it reserves depending on the risk not to fullfill the guarantee The argumentation pro PV is build on the long life time of the PV systems, the PV image would be damaged if there are life time problems BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 3 Industry Interest in PV Performance and Reliability II PV manufacturers are interested in having serious and comparable data on the PV output in different countries and climates since the PV business is more and more globalized Competition in the PV business will grow strongly due to the expected oversupply, PV companies have to prove their quality by demonstrating high PV output within PV performance benchmark tests PV industry need data about the performance in order to further improve their products, only serious and reliable data are comparable Technological development of PV is accelerating, more and more new PV technologies are on the market. PV industry has a strong need to know the output and reliability of new PV technologies in order to guarantee a fair ranking and assessment BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 4 1

2 Changing world of PV Monitoring Demand-supply Industry focus Technologies Actors Past Under-supply Building up production capacity asi, csi Modules PV producers, whole saler, institutes Future Over-supply Building up markets More thin film technologies, PV concentrator, tracking, metallurgical Si, New: project developers, system integrators, monitoring companies, investors New structure of working together: find a business model which is Integrating the monitoring activities of the PV industry and commercial monitoring companies BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 5 The challenge: to build up and support PV markets globally to make PV cost competitive with other energy technologies Challenge: Today, PV is often the most expensive way to produce electricity from Renewable Energy Sources However: PV has the highest cost reduction potential WHAT TO DO? We have to enlarge the volume of PV modules, due to economies of scale PV will become cost competitive WHEN SHOULD WE START? PV has to be developed TODAY in order to have (1) enough solar capacity available in several years (2) at a competitive price Price learning curve PV modules (Silicon wafer based) Cumul ati ve sold PV modules worldwide in M Wp Source: Prof. Luther/Solar Generation, PVPS 26 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 6 Different strategies are available to support PV market development - the appropriate instrument depends on different target groups Power producer Grid operators Consumer Feed-in tariff Quotas/Certificates* Grants/Tax incentives BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 7 Photovoltaic World Market Newly installed PV Power in 27: 2.6 GWp Germany 11 MWp 41% Spain 518 MWp 19% USA 35 MWp 12% Japan 23 MWp 9% ROW 16 MWp; 6% Italy 5 MWp; 2% France Taiw an: 1 MWp 45 MWp; 2% Portugal 14 MWp; 1% Belgium 1 MWp; % Canada 13 MWp; 1% ROEU 15 MWp; 1% China 2 MWp; 1% Feed-in tariff countries South Korea 5 MWp; 2% India 5 MWp; 2% Australia Source: BSW-Solar, EPIA, NNPVA 2 MWp; 1% Updated 5 September 28 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 8 2

3 Feed-in tariffs: Case study Germany Small, Medium and Large Rooftop Installations Image: SMA Image: Fran kensolar Image: Wagner & Co Image:Solar-Fabrik BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 9 Basis of the German Success in Renewable Energy Sources: Continous Policy to Increase the Share of RES Development of the share of Renewable Energy Sources in final energy consumption RES share in % , , ,5 year target electricity heating & cooling final energy consumption BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 1 6, ,1 8, Source: Ger man Federal Ministr y for Environment, M arch 28 Share of Solar Electricity in Germany Share of PV electricity - of electricity consumption 27:.6% (26:.44 %) - of renewable energy electricity 27: 3.5% (26: 3.1 %) Distribution of Renewable Energy Electricity Production in Germany 27 Wind energy 38.5 TWh; 48% Photovoltaics 3. TWh; 4% Bio energy solid 6.6 TWh; 8% Bio gas Total RES 8.9 TWh; 11% electricity production Bio energy liquid Hydro energy 27: 86.7 TWh 1.2 TWh; 2% 21.7 TWh; 27% RES share of Geothermal electricity.1 TWh;.1% consumption: 14.3% Source: BEE, Jan 28 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 11 Development of the German PV market PV Market Data Newly installed power 1 1 MWp 5 Total installed power MWp No. of newly installed systems 13 No. of total systems installed 43 4 Turnover 27 5 Bln /7.25 Bln $ Employees 4 3 Milestones : First Feed-in Law : 1, roofs program : 1, roofs program 15 : Renew able Energy Sources Act (EEG) 1 24: Amendment of EEG annually installed PV powe r in MWp total installed PV power in MWp BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 12 estimation Total installed PV power in MWp 3

4 Germany: Market Segments of on-grid PV Systems Image: Sharp Grid-Connected PV Systems in Germany Ground Roof top BIPV mounted Effort of mounting Imag e: Sc hü co residential homes 1-1 kwp 27% Imag e: S ol arw att Market share in 26 1% multi family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants 1-1 kwp 49% Imag e: S ol arw att Image: Grammer 1% Large and very large commercial > 1 kwp Imag e: BP 13% Each kwh of solar electricity produced is fed into the grid, sold to the utility and paid at a fixed price Typical data of a small PV system (per kwp) Investment costs: 4,373 (6,4 $) Annual production of solar electricity: 9 kwh/a Feed-in tariff:.467 /kwh (.67 $/kwh) paid over 2 years Feed-in payment: 42 /a (61 $/a) Interest rates (KfW): 5.2%/a eff Size of the system Imag e: Geos ol Imag e: Geos ol 1 $ =.69 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 13 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 14 Two ways of connecting PV systems to the grid How does the German Feed-in Law (EEG) work? Principles Priority connection for all PV systems granted Each solar kwh has to be purchased by the utility Fixed feed-in tariff payment over 2 years Reduction of the feed-in tariff each year by 5% for newly installed PV systems FIT and electricity rate in Germany ct/kwh < 3 kwp FIT (-5%/a) electri city rate (+3%/a) Target: grid parity USA: Net-metering Solar electricity is used for own consumption first, only excess electricity is fed into the grid Germany: Feed-in tariff Solar electricity is exclusively fed into the grid BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin TWh solar electricity sold for mio 1,176 [mio$ 1,7] (average 53ct per kwh) Share of solar electricity:.45% Fossil and nuclear electricity Utilities grid Consumption of 495 TWh consumer Price private consumer: approx. 2ct per kwh Data from 26 (and other renewables) Including.24ct for PV Price increase for consumer: 1.2% BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 16 4

5 Feed-in tariffs in Germany 28 for PV systems installed in 28, guaranteed over 2 years Feed-in tariff per kwh on buildings and noise protection walls Façadeintegrated Open land (groundmounted) < 3 kwp ct $ct kwp ct $ct 64.5 additional ct 5 $ct 7.25 ct $ct 51.5 > 1 kwp ct $ct 63.8 Image: Degussa Image: Solar-Fabrik Amendment of the EEG from June 28: Feed-in Tariffs for PV will be reduced faster as of 29 annually installed PV power in MWp Degression rate of feed-in tariffs Up to 28: 5% / 6.5% (roof top/ground) 29/21: 8% / 1% (< / >1 kwp) 211/212: 9% Below/above corridor: -1%/+1% est Degression rate 5%/6.5% +1% 15 8%/ 1% 1-1% +1% 17 8%/ 1% 11 +1% 19 9% 9% 12-1% -1% annually installed PV power in MWp upper limit lower limit BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 17 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 18 ct per kwh Feed-in Tariffs for PV within the German EEG Based on degression rates decided on June 6th, 28 Price of small PV systems < 1 kwp [ /kwp] (without VAT) ,8 49,21 Grid parity will be 5 46,75 48,74 43,1 reached between 45 46,3 39, , and ,1 4,6 39, ,96 32,77 35,49 35,62 29, ,41 27,14 31,94 29,49 24, ,75 22,48 26,16 26,84 24,42 2,46 2ct/kWh 2 23,81 22,22 21,67 2,22 19,72 18, ,95 16,33 14, facades < 3 kwp > 3 kwp > 1 kwp >1 kwp Ground mounted electricity price (+3%/a) BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 19 1% 95% 9% 85% BSW-Solar German PV Price Index 1,% 96,% 95,4% 91,4% 89,% 9,% 87,% Price index PV modules Price index PV systems 89,% 9,1% 87,5% 86,1% 86,6% 87,9% 87,1% 86,% 85,5% 85,1% 8% Average Price PV system Q3 28 (<1kWp): /kwp 75% Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 26 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 27 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 PV Moduls = Whol esale price for installer, PV systems = final customer price, readyinstalled Source: Representative independent poll of 1 installersbyeupd-research on behalf of BSW-Solar BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 2 5

6 Countries with Quota systems: Case study USA USA is perceived as one of the most promising PV markets in the future Today, the US-market is growing slowly The support scheme is a mixture of different instruments: Quota system on state level called Renewable Portfolio Standard - RPS in some states a specific PV target is foreseen ( Carve-out, Solar Provision ) 3% tax deduction on federal level Investor Tax Credit - ITC Grant programs on state level, e.g. the California Solar Initiative CSI Net metering in most of the states In addition, PV market development depends on the electricity price which differs a lot in different states In some regions PV has already reached grid parity, especially in areas w ith higher tariffs during peak-time BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 21 Support Programs of Important European PV Markets Germany Spain Italy France EU Feed in Tariffs 28 [ ct/kwh] Support programm % tax reduction, max 8/16 Market size MWp 518 MWp 5 MWp 45 MWp Market size 28 estimated 135 MWp 125 MWp 15 MWp 15 MWp Draft of the directive of the European Commission was published on 23 January 28, target: 2% renewables until 22, PV: continuation of national support schemes BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 22 The world PV production is growing faster than PV demand => high probability of oversupply of PV modules as of 29/21 Significant differences regarding predicted market volumes in 21 annually installed PV power in MWp Photon Consult: 26 GWp Production = Market EPIA/BSW-Solar: 5-7 GWp Market growth is limited Photon Consult 28 Sarasin 27 LBBW 27 EPIA 27 max EPIA 27 min => In recent years the PV sector focused on building up production capacities, now the focus must be on the development of PV markets worldwide Conclusions The need of serious and reliable PV performance data is evident in general The expected oversupply of PV modules and the apprearance of new PV technologies enhance the need Targets for IEA Task 13 are Make performance data of PV systems available and easy accessable worldwide Guarantee a high quality of the data Guarantee the comparability of the data Provide long-term data BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 23 BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 24 6

7 PV facade with green solar cells, sports stadium Tübingen Imag e: S unt ec hn ics, S un wa Thank you very much for your attention BSW-Solar 28 IEA Task 13 Workshop, Sept 25, 28, Berlin 25 7