Photovoltaics in Germany

Transcription

1 Energy Photovoltaics in Germany Latest legislative changes due to a growing market and challenges for integrating large amounts of fluctuating renewable energies

2 The German Solar Industry Association 2 TASK To represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal and photovoltaic sector VISION A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business HEADQUARTERS Berlin

3 Agenda 3 1. Overview of PV in Germany 2. Challenges

4 Solar irradiationin Greece and in Germany 4

5 New grid connected PV-markets grow with more than 50 % 5 PV world market 2009: MWp 2010: MWp 2011: MWp Europa North Amerika Asia/ / ROW [incl. Salva Alcoa: 3.5 GW in 2010 gebaut, in 2011 angeschlossen] Schätzungen, über netzangeschlossene PV- Installationen Quelle: nat. PV Industrie- Verbände, BSW-Solar Update: 01/2012

6 Development of the German PV market 6 Electricity produced: Installed systems: 03/08/2012

7 Market segments Germany (2011) 7 Mounting effort Preliminary Figures Source: Statistics of the Federal Network Agency, BSW-Solar Estimates Shares according to installed capacity. BIPV <1% Residential (1-10 kwp) Commercial ( kwp) Industrial (>100 kwp) Ground- Rooftop mounted 10% Images: Schüco, Grammer, Sharp, Solarwatt, BP, Geosol 38% 23% 28% Size of system BSW- Solar

8 PV system prices decrease steadily 8 / kwp PV syst em prices decrease st eadily Overall price reduct ion approx. 65 percent since Q2/ ,0 00 4,50 0 4,0 00 Average end-customer prices (system prices) for installed roof-mounted systems of up to 100 Kilowatt peak per kilowatt peak without tax 3,50 0 3,00 0 2,500 2,0 00 1,776 1,50 0 Source: BSW-Solar PV Price Index 5/ 2012

9 Monthly capacity additions 2011/12 9 MWp PV-Zubau / Einfluss auf die Degression Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Okt 10 Nov 10 Dez Jan 11Feb 11Mrz 11Apr 11Mai 11Jun 11 Jul 11Aug 11Sep 11Okt 11Nov 11Dez 11 Jan Feb 12 Mrz Apr Mai 12 Jun : Jan - Dez ~7,5 GWp : Jan - Jun ~4,4GWp Quelle: BNetzA, BSW-Solar Stand 8/ 2012

10 Significant changes and FIT cuts decided with effect from April 1st, Total remunerable capacity limited to 52 GWp (today: ca GWp) Monthly degression between and 2.8 % / month dep. on market size in reference period Market Integration Model: Only 90% of solar power generated per year receives remuneration under the EEG. The remaining 10% should be consumed on site or are subject to other marketing activities ( Sonstige Direktvermarktung ). An additional premium ( Management Prämie ) can be claimed. Otherwise, only a socket remuneration ( Marktwert Solar ) can be claimed if the full amount of power is fed to the grid (currently valued at approx. 5 cent/kwh). Comparison FIT- for new installations in Sept Germany /Greece Size Germany Greece Roof- top Greece Ground- mounted < ct 25 ct 22.5 ct kwp kwh kwh kwh kwp kwp kwp 1 10 MWp ct kwh ct kwh ct kwh ct kwh Interest rate > 3.5 % 18 ct kwh

11 Market based monthly degression in Germany since 1. Nov May Oct: fixed monthly degression of 1% applies market based monthly degression begins as of Nov: base degression (1%) corrected according to market growth based on a 12-month assessment period Quarterly correction will apply always for three month beginning: Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct These proposals are not yet agreed, subject to further political negotiation.

12 Agenda Overview of PV in Europe and Germany 2. Challenges

13 Share of PV electricitygrows to 5,3 Percent in the first half of 2012 Jan. Jul. 2012: +47 % comp. to 2011 and morethan +155 Prozent comp. to in Millio onen Kilowattstunden (kwh) Solarstrom-Produktion in Deutschland Stromproduktion Photovoltaik* 2010: Millionen kwh 2011: Millionen kwh Jan - Jul 2012**: Millionen kwh (Quelle: EEX, ÜNB) Stand 8/ 2012 * gerundet * * vorläufig, eigene Hochrechnung BSW-Solar Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Quelle: ÜNB, EEX, eigene Berechnungen BSW-Solar 2012, vorläufige Hochrechnung, Stand 8/ 2012 PV electricity can provide up to 10 % of elec. consumption Electricity demand is stronger in winter than in summer which is contrary to Greece Smart combination of storage & grid management needed Electricity demand Germany (2010/2011) Source: AG Energiebilanzen e.v.

14 The agenda of challenges for the German RE economy Germany aims at 80% share of renewable energy till 2050, of which 35% -45% can be reached till The system will come under a complete transformation process where RE dominate conventional sources. Adaption of infrastructure and power generation mix is slow The German FIT (not the EEG) is on its final spurt Consequently, associations and companies have defined a threefold transformation agenda: 1. Market design: what are incentives and framework that stimulate investments in conventional and RE power generation (capacity markets?) 2. Flexibility requirements: what are sources and technologies that efficiently balance a power mix dominated by RE? 3. Grid infrastructure: how can the grid efficiently be enabled to integrate growing shares of RE?

15 Mid term/ long term perspectives Grid parity / Losening of support mechanism : Development from a market dependent on financial support to a market reaching electricity production capacity with conventional power plants (generation parity) Preconditions: - Legal framework - Technical framework - Grid extension

16 First market segments are 2016/2017 fully competitive 16 Price of solar PV: Electricity price for consumers Milestones 2012 Price for solar electricity below private consumer price for electricty 2013: Price for solar electricity below support for offshore wind / bio gas

17 Market Design: PV reduces the price for wholesale electricity by up to 40 %, without benefitting from this development 17 Average reduction of midday peak curve in 2007 & 2011

18 Grid integration of PV is technically feasible and financially viable Germany has more than 29 GW PV capacity connected to distribution grids 80% is in low-voltage grids 20% in medium-voltage grids Solar can provide up to 10 % of electricity generation without generating tecnical hurdles for the electricity Costs for the electricity grid might increase by until 2020 around 0.2% to a maximum of 1% ct to 0.06 ct per kwh, due to the use of PV.* Obstacles for among the general public are lower than for constructing further high voltage electricity lines. * Extension to 52 GWp until 2020 Source: IWES 2011, ecofys 2012, DUH Forum Netzintegration

19 New business models needed / tecnical solutions needed Small PV-systems a. Increase auto-consumption of decentrally produced electricity b. Direct sale of PV-electricity within neighbourhood networks 2. Big systems a. Local electricitygeneration and provision to a limited no. of consumers b. Combined electricity production plants: Smart coordination of varyingsources of (renewable) electricity to integrate more fluctuating sources 3. New technologies a. Short time storage Fly wheels, new, cheaper batteries b. Long time storage pump storage, power to gas, etc. 4. Integration into the European electricity exchange network

20 Stronger integration into European electricity network 20 Pros Reduction of power fluctuation within single countries Access for storage problems Market integration into European electricity market Cons Grid extension is costly and involves many players Storage is currently a more urgent need than Inter-European-Grid extension Energy policies are a national responsibility Consumers are willing to pay additional tariffs for green energy being locally produced only Limited exchange so far Exchange of electricty takes place among neighbouring countries, losses are to high for long distance conections

21 Solar electricity from Greece to Germany 21 Helios-Project / Desertec Pros Electric energy can contribute to early morning electricity needs in Germany In Winter Greece could contribute to Germany s energy need Cons Solar energy prices in Greece are not competitive with those in Germany (FIT) Who covers the costs for new high voltage direct current electricity lines? Use solar energy locally first to eradicate costly power production on oil basis (e.g. Crete) Big infrastructure project require high levels of confidence among potential investors.

22 Conclusion or: German lessons learned 22 Solar power expansion is essential for the Energiewende. For a central European country like Germany, a share of 10 % of power supply (and more) till 2020 is necessary from an energy and environmental policy perspective so Greece could do even more due to a more favourable electricity consumption scheme! From today on, further PV expansion signifies only marginal costs for household and industrial power consumers. The technology has been made cheap and available. Robust PV growth is technically feasible and possible without significant infrastructure costs. Existing challenges must be tackled jointly by PV industry, network operators and politicians. The advantages of solar lay in local production and consumption replacing conventional fuels currently the obstacles for transfering large amounts of energy outweigh the advantages PV is a key driver for efficiently phasing out significant conventional capacity in the near future.

23 23 Energy Thank you very much for your attention! Jan Knaack Project Manager German Solar Industry Association