What is the Future of Competitive Markets? Some Fundamental Preliminaries and View from Events in the PJM Market
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1 What is the Future of Competitive Markets? Some Fundamental Preliminaries and View from Events in the PJM Market Paul M. Sotkiewicz, Ph.D President December 7, 2016
2 What are the ideal properties of competitive power markets?? Neutral with respect to: Age Size Technology Fuel Encourage or take advantage of the following: Cost reductions Innovation Incentives consistent with reliability needs Markets should be transparent and reflect underlying fundamentals
3 Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
4 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Jan-2005 Aug-2005 Mar-2006 Oct-2006 May-2007 Dec-2007 Jul-2008 Feb-2009 Sep-2009 Apr-2010 Nov-2010 Jun-2011 Jan-2012 Aug-2012 Mar-2013 Oct-2013 May-2014 Dec-2014 Jul-2015 Feb-2016 Technology Part 1: Natural Gas Rig Productivity Rises and Prices Decline 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Rig Productivity (mcf/rig/day) Marcellus Utica Haynesville Eagle Ford Niobrara Bakken Permian Henry Hub Monthly Price 2, * Source: EIA. Drilling Productivity Report. August Henry Hub Monthly Price * Source: EIA. Henry Hub Monthly Spot Price Series September 25, 2016.
5 The Big Shock: Where has Demand Growth Gone? MW 190, , , , , , , ,000 PJM Summer Peak Demand Forecast GWh Evolution of Total Energy Demand and Total Energy Forecasts in PJM Forecast 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast Actual Energy Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
6 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 $/MWh And Energy Prices are Matching the Fuel and Demand Trends PJM Monthly Load Weighted Average LMP Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
7 Technology Part 2: Gas Dominates Generation the Interconnection Queue Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
8 $/KW-year Gas Dominates Going Forward Costs $ Fixed O&M/Going Forward Costs $ $ $ $50.00 $0.00 Existing Combined Cycle Gas Existing Coal (more than 40 years old) Existing Nuclear in PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, and MISO 2011$/KW-yr 2016$/KW-yr Source: EPA IPM Modeling Base Case v.5.13 Documentation
9 MW of Capacity (UCAP) Technology and CostsPart 2: Gas Capacity Surpassing Coal Capacity Cleared Capacity (UCAP) in Three Year Forward Auctions Coal Steam Natural Gas Demand Response and Energy Efficiency Wind & Solar Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
10 $/MW-day Capacity Prices: As Energy Market Prices Decline, Greater Need for Capacity Prices to Rise to Keep Resources in Service $ $ $ RPM Capacity Market Price in RTO LDA $ $ $ $80.00 $60.00 RPM Price Linear (RPM Price) $40.00 $20.00 $ / / / / / / / / / / / / /20 Delivery Year Source: PJM Interconnection, LLC
11 To preserve competition in wholesale power markets, keep the following in mind 1st Law of Infrastructure Financial Thermodynamics All initial costs of bringing an asset into commercial operation are sunk once in operation 2nd Law of Infrastructure Financial Thermodynamics Once built, the infrastructure asset must at least cover their going-forward costs such as fixed O&M, required forward looking incremental investment and other overhead costs to remain in commercial operation Law of Conservation of Risk Risk can neither be created nor destroyed Risk can be transferred from one party to another (willingly or unwillingly), hidden or made transparent Risk can be transformed between physical/event risk into financial risk
12 So, what are the challenges and consideration related to competition in power markets? Need for capacity markets in low energy price or energy market rent environments See Alberta most recently Minimum Offer Price Rules A market power mitigation measure being looked at as a price formation measure? State policy initiatives Fairly easy to see who benefits But who really pays? How transparent is it? What are the price formation implications and is it market power or just inefficient? RPS, CES, ZEC, M-O-U-S-E...??
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