ELECTRIFICATION OF THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Transcription

1 ELECTRIFICATION OF THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Western Energy Institute Operations Conference April 25 th, 2018 PA Knowledge Limited 1

2 The recent trends driving EV adoption have begun to address a variety of barriers to adoption and bring together a complex eco-system of stakeholders Consumer Sentiment and Understanding Clean Tech Policies and Incentives Utility EV Programs Declining Technology Costs PA Knowledge Limited 2

3 Although studies have shown that consumers have become more open to EV ownership, significant education efforts are still required Consumer Sentiment and Understanding Utility EV Programs Clean Tech Policies and Incentives Declining Technology Costs Source: California Air Resources Board PA Knowledge Limited 3

4 Targeted state and federal policies aligned with clean energy objectives have been successful in driving adoption in certain states PEV Registrations per 1,000 People By State, % Penetration Forecasts as Percent of US Car Sales* 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% PA Bloomberg New Energy Finance EIA Department of Energy I H S Source: DOE Case Study: Georgia s initial high adoption rates were stifled with removal of their $5,000 rebate in 2015 as a result, EV sales in the Atlanta area dropped by almost 90%. PA Knowledge Limited 4

5 Battery cost declines have helped make EVs more economic, meanwhile OEMs have announced new models with longer ranges Total Cost of Ownership: As auto manufacturers continue to reduce EV drivetrain and lithium-ion manufacturing costs, the lifetime cost of small and medium EV ownership is already in line with some similar internal combustion vehicles. Based on future battery cost projections, EVs are expected to reach capital cost parity Lithium Ion Battery Cost Forecast ($/kwh) Source: PA Consulting Battery Cost Forecast with % of TCO ($000 nominal) 16 45% % Price parity 10 33% 28% 8 24% 21% 6 18% Source: PA Consulting PA Knowledge Limited 5

6 Utilities across the US have actively entered the TE space through infrastructure roll-outs, incentives/rebates, and EV specific rates Utility EV Actions by State, 2017 Source: NC Clean Energy Technology Center PA Knowledge Limited 6

7 An effective Utility TE program must consider a broad range of factors how to recover cost, engage customers, forge partnerships and maintain reliable operations Developing a regulatory strategy that considers: Ensuring the program targets and reaches: Aligning incentives and leveraging capabilities of: Selecting an appropriate technology mix between: Clean policy objectives Ownership models Balanced CapEx/Opex Rate impacts EV specific rate design All customer segments Disadvantaged communities MUDs and workplaces Potential site hosts Charging developers Auto manufacturers Local governments Fleet owners/operators Rideshare companies L1, L2, L3 chargers Load impacts V2G management Light, medium, heavy duty vehicles Regulatory/Finance Customer Partnerships Technology/Operations Four Pillars of a Utility TE Strategy PA Knowledge Limited 7

8 Our Panel Today Dan Austin, PE Operations Manager Avista Chico Hunter Manager of Research & Environmental Policy Salt River Project Joe Colett Emerging Technologies Product Manager Portland General Electric Alex Pischalnikov Principal Consultant, Energy & Utilities PA Consulting Group PA Knowledge Limited 8

9 Electrification of the Transportation System Dan Austin, PE 2018 WEI Operations Conference April 25, 2018

10 Trends & Benefits Technology & Investments Operational Cost Savings Economic Growth Emission Reductions High Customer Satisfaction Energy Security Beneficial Utility Revenue

11 Adoption Barriers Low Awareness & Misperceptions Upfront Cost Limited Vehicle Choices Range Anxiety Low Infrastructure Investment

12 Future Power Requirements Current State 1,638 MW peak required load Extreme Future Scenario 500,000 EVs on Avista s system 20kW simultaneous demand per EV 10,000 MW peak load A Less Extreme Scenario... photograph courtesy Tesla 30 miles/day average distance travelled = 9 kw-hr energy per day, per EV 500,000 EVs = 4,500 MW-hr/day Evenly spread over 18 hrs system off-peak = 250 MW peak load

13 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Pilot 60 in Public 240 at Home Integrated Network 7 DC Fast Chargers 175 at Work User Web Portal Utility Web Portal

14 Next Steps EVSE Pilot long term program Assist STA Bus Electrification Develop Commercial Fleets Program Education & Outreach Commercial Applications Research Autonomous EV Research

15 Chico Hunter, Manager Research and Environmental Policy WEI

16 SRP EV Roadmap Team WEI

17 EV Community WEI

18 SRP Customer Programs WEI

19 SRP EV System Impact Study WEI

20 PGE s Transportation Electrification Plan Joe Colett, Emerging Technologies Product Manager April 25 th, 2018

21 What is an Electric Avenue? Electric Avenue provides multiple, high powered charging stations in a single location. Each site is equipped with 4x DC fast charging and 2x Level 2 stations and is accessible 24/7. Electric Avenue Network Expansion Encourage electric vehicle adoption by providing drivers with a safe, affordable, and highly visible fastcharging network. Where will they be located? Portland Milwaukie Hillsboro Beaverton Gresham Salem Pins do not represent actual Electric Avenue locations. Portland General Electric 21

22 Project Overview Electrified Mass Transit Partner with TriMet to power Portland s first all-electric bus line. 5x Electric Buses (200 kwh ea.) Depot Chargers Merlo Garage Overhead Charger 1x Overhead Charger (450 kw) 2x Depot Chargers (100 kw ea.) Portland General Electric 22

23 Questions? Joe Colett, Emerging Technologies Product Manager 23