Overview of Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance (TxETRA) and Trends in EVs and Charging Needs

Transcription

1 Overview of Texas Electric Transportation Resources Alliance (TxETRA) and Trends in EVs and Charging Needs BILL BOJORQUEZ Texas Public Power Association Meeting December 7,

2 Leading Texas Toward An Electrical Transportation Future In the Most Cost-Effective Way Providing Maximum Benefit to the Citizens of this State The TxETRA board is comprised of stakeholders including: BYD America, Peterbilt, Austin Energy, Hunt Power/Sharyland Utilities, Smart Charge America, Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance, Public Citizen, Capital Metro, Austin MEASURE, The University of Texas and Texas A&M. Founded April 6, 2018 Technical and Outreach Committees are working on legislative and policy recommendations relating to: Electricity Grid Impact, Charging Infrastructure, Public Transportation, Technology, Economic Development, Public Education, Equity and EV Tax Policy. 2

3 Organizational Meeting held last April Created subcommittees Solicited additional members Board Met in August, 2018 Applied for various 501- C3 and C4 status (in addition to the C-6 we have) Applied for and raise funds Committee reports General membership and Legislative policy meeting held last November Plug Play and Pay Policies: Set up interconnectivity and interoperability Develop intracity and interstate charging networks Clarify rules on energy and storage ownership Develop consumer protections Enable multiple types of EV charging technologies and participants to provide vehicle-to-grid services Develop Time of Use (TOU) rates to mitigate demand and thoughtful deploy demand charges to encourage EV use, but discourage needless peak charging and inappropriate placement of changing stations Assure equity and equal access to all communities 3

4 PUC Demand-side management Non Traditional Resources Docket * Consumer Protection ERCOT Resource Adequacy and Demand Response Ancillary Services TCEQ The Leg VW settlement Texas Emissions Reduction Plan EV taxation Transportation policy Storage policy 4

5 UPS found that BEVs cost the same to buy, less to own and operate, and that smart charging and energy management services enabled them to save money. UPS announced it plans to deploy 50 plug-in electric delivery trucks that will be comparable in acquisition cost to conventional fueled trucks without any subsidies. UPS expects the operating cost of the new plug-in electric vehicle to be less than a similarly equipped diesel or gasoline vehicle (UPS press release 2/22/18) In London: Smart charging will allow UPS to increase their London fleet 65 to 170, without the need for the usual expensive upgrade to the power supply connection and construction of a substation. The smart charging system dynamically controls the power available to connected vehicles, intelligently limiting the peak load on the network. The EMS provides Demand Side Response services including: Firm Frequency Response, Demand Shift, Voltage regulation, Real and Reactive power export 5

6 Between , Electric Vehicles (EVs) will cost less to own and operate than internal combustion engines (ICEs). Bloomberg recently announced that the tipping point where EVs will cost less than ICEs in expected in 2025 Somewhere between , the majority of U.S. vehicles EVs sold will be electric. This will affect electric demand and create unique challenges of meeting mobile load and offer interesting opportunities for using vehicle batteries for storage. Value streams for energy stored in vehicle batteries may include demand charge reduction, peak load reduction, energy arbitrage, price responsive opportunities, voltage support, and congestion management 6

7 EV sales could hit the rapid-growth part of the technologyadoption S-curve as soon as 2026 Company % sales Date Boston consulting Group 50% 2030 McKenzie 10-15% 2030 Electrix 100% 2035 Wood McKenzie 21% 2035 Bernstein 40% 2037 Bloomberg 54% 2040 Morgan Stanley 50% Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7

8 By 2040, more than 90% of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other rich countries could be electric. --- Electric Cars May Rule the World s Roads by National Geographic September 2017 Rethink X, an independent think tank, is even more bullish, saying Most U.S. vehicles will be electric by 2030, just 13 years from now A November 2017 study by the Boston Consulting Group predicted Electrified Vehicles to Take Half of Global Auto Market by 2030 WSJ, December 2018: China Takes Driver s Seat in Electric Buses China s ambitions to lead the shift to battery-powered transportation, leads to national project to replace millions if taxis, buses and trucks with EV models. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) recently bumped up its estimate of the EV market share in 2040 from 35% of all new car sales to 54%, saying: The EV revolution is going to hit the car market even harder and faster than BNEF predicted a year ago. 8

9 The Real Take-off for EVs Will Happen In the Second Half of the 2020 s Between 2010 and 2016, lithium ion battery costs plummeted by 75%. It is forecast that by 2030, those same battery prices will drop by 93%. 9

10 Seven countries have announced they are considering banning new fossil vehicle sales by 2040 or earlier Norway will ban the sale of non-electric vehicles after 2025, India by UK., the Netherlands, and France have promised the same by Germany and China are committed and discussing similar dates. California has begun similar discussions and thirteen states usually follow their lead. Eight car manufacturers have upped the number of electric vehicles they plan to offer. Volvo has announced they are phasing out non- electrified vehicles beginning in GM has said its future is electric. There are now 50 PHEV or BEV vehicles on the market. Seven heavy-duty truck manufacturers are developing heavy-duty electric trucks and/or have announced new products. 10

11 80,000 pounds of cargo Instant torque at zero RPM 100 t0 300 mile range at 75 mph One speed transmission $150 to $250k 11

12 Texas Grid Operator s 2033 LTSA Emerging Technology Scenario Predicts: EVs will increase load by 18,500 MW by 2033 mainly at night MW on-peak can be offset by 10,400 of predicted utility scale solar Type Number of Vehicles Per Day Vehicle Charging Total Capacity Increase Cars 3,000, kwh 5,940 MW Short Haul/Buses 80, kwh 2,800 MW Long Haul Trucks 200, kwh 10,200 MW Charging patterns for all three still occurs mostly at night. Total MW increase over 18,500 Occurs at Midnight 5,000 to 6,000 MW during peak hours Increase in load can be managed 12

13 year Cars Long haul trucks Short haul/buses , ,000 1,500 1, ,000 3,000 3, ,000 5,000 5, ,000 7,500 7, ,000 11,000 10, ,000 18,000 14, ,000 27,000 18, ,000 39,000 22, ,005,000 54,000 27, ,280,000 74,000 34, ,590,000 99,000 42, ,940, ,000 52, ,390, ,000 64, ,000, ,000 80,000

14 Emerging Technology Hourly charging patterns Assumes some control during the day Values are percent of charge in each hour Hour Cars Long Haul Trucks Short Haul/Buses

15 According to the International Energy Agency, unmanaged charging could result in an increase in peak demand of roughly one-third. However into if charging is managed through: Time of use rates Selective Demand Charges Controls Offset by mid-day solar Global EV outlook 2017 OECD/IEA 2017 Two million and counting pg

16 Who does the energy come from? The building owner s REP/LSE The charger s REP/LSE or The car owners REP/LSE If the car batteries are used to provide energy or ancillary services -Who benefits? The building owner s the REP/LSE? The charging company? The car owner? City of Houston Garage What consumer protections need to be put in place? What price is the electricity? Is it based on Time of Use? What price will be paid for Ancillary Services? How is it tracked? Do we need to create a new type of aggregator? Do we need to create an EV ESID? 16

17 At a garage/ public facility What is the price of electricity? Is it a flat charge per kwh Does it vary on time of use? Can you opt out How to set full charge and minimum charge level for your next drive Privacy Projections Is there an app that allows you to set those parameters Complaint process How can you find out about competitive charging offers and charging locations At home What is the price of electricity? Is it a flat charge per kwh Does it vary on time of use? Will your battery be used Vehicle to Grid (VTG) Do you need a submeter to participate What price will be paid for that service How can you find out about competitive charging offers Modify Power to Choose website 17

18 * Diagram courtesy of Austin Energy 18

19 Plug and Outlets: CCS BMW, GM, VW, and others CHAdeMO China, Japan and Korea OEMs 19

20 Proposed Charging Station locations based on transmission infrastructure in Texas in proximity to the principal highways TxETRA recommends that charging stations be placed in the general vicinity of the locations indicated in this map Ultimate locations should be selected to assure maximum usage of stations and to ensure proximity to amenities This phase of our study suggests locations for light duty charging stations only. We hope to develop similar maps for heavy duty charging infrastructure in the future. Charging stations should handle loads between 600 kw to 2,000 kw using a minimum of four 150kW DC Fast Chargers Fund transformer pads and conduit to enable stations to be upgraded in the future to accommodate the demand of four additional 350-kW DCFCs which can serve the needs of future light and heavy-duty vehicles Rural towns at the end of distribution networks could easily experience system overloads requiring costly upgrades to the grid. To avoid distribution-only areas, the map includes charging stations in places where either 69kV or 138kV stations (or both) are present. Additional coordination with the individual transmission and distribution companies will be required 20

21 TxETRA projects: 50% of all new vehicles sold in Texas will be EV s by % of all vehicles in Texas (12.5 million) will be EVs by 2033 based on continued growth in EV sales New Trucks will be largely electrified and autonomous Battery range increases Charging time decreases Battery reuse becomes the norm 1st and 2 nd gen battery recycling fee and process will need to be set up Autonomous shuttles become the norm Individual vehicle usage and later ownership drops Gas station and ICE abandonment will increase and funding will be needed for clean up, recycling and repurposing 21

22 Texas needs to be ready for the coming Electric Transportation Revolution. This will affect cars and trucks, long-haul trucks, public transit, school buses, trains, scooters, bikes, and more. Recent forecasts, including Bloomberg New Energy Finance, say the EV revolution is going to hit the U.S. car market even harder and faster than predicted a year ago and that by 2025 electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles. Many countries are discussing banning the sale of internal combustion engines (ICEs) in the near future. Texas needs to have infrastructure in place to participate and thrive in this new electric transportation future. Texas can be a leader in electric vehicle-related technology and policy. TxETRA is currently gathering stakeholders together to craft a plan unique to Texas to prepare for the coming Evolution (much as we did prior to the highly successful renewable energy boom of the 1980s and 90s). It is critical that we resolve contentious issues so that legislative and regulatory bodies will not have to grapple with them. Please consider going to txetra.org and JOIN US! 22