Singapore and Manila March Successful Deployment of Low Emission Vehicles Industry Viewpoint

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1 Singapore and Manila March 2012 Successful Deployment of Low Emission Vehicles Industry Viewpoint Neil Butcher Associate Director 1

2 Introduction Arup and low emission vehicles Environmental necessity Vehicle manufacturers response Do consumers want them? Low emission vehicle sales predictions How do consumers use electric vehicles? Effect on electricity supply Wireless charging 2

3 Arup and Low Emission Vehicles 3 Arup and Low Carbon Transport Chargemaster

4 Differences in Well to Wheel Energy Efficiency in ICV EV 4

5 5 Lifetime Well to Wheel Emissions

6 Urban Benefits Noise 5dB reduction for a typical EV at 50kph compared to a typical petrol car Quieter traffic leading to reduced acoustic insulation requirements for buildings Local air quality On top of CO 2 savings... UK Government estimate 15bn is economic cost of health impacts of poor air quality in the UK EVs will assist in urban reduction of PM10 particulates and NOx emissions 6

7 UK Germany France USA Canada Japan China Australia Incentives for Low Emission Vehicles Incentive Purchase incentive Fuel tax Annual vehicle usage tax Company car tax Incentive for low emission vehicles No incentive for low emission vehicles Other local incentives free entry to low emissions zones use of high occupancy lanes free electricity and/or parking for recharging Funding for development batteries electric and hybrid drives 7

8 Vehicle electrification roadmap NAIGT 8

9 Barriers to Market Purchase cost of EVs Range of EVs between recharging Availability of recharging points Speed of recharging Questions around EV green credentials - Energy to manufacture battery - Battery recycling - CO2 emitted by electricity generation 9

10 Consumer Attitudes to Plug-in Vehicles The little published data that is available is based on surveys of consumers with little or no experience of owning or using EVs. This is representative of today, but attitudes are likely to change as EVs become more common. Data suggests that - Consumers will buy plug-in hybrids when they are similar cost to conventional vehicles. - Most consumers see full EVs as offering less capability, and will only buy when they are cheaper than conventional vehicles. - Running costs are lower for all EVs, and consumers need education to look at whole life costs, not just purchase price. 10

11 % of global EV sales in 2020 EV Sales Projections for % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 11

12 Coventry And Birmingham Low Emission Demonstrators Successful bid to the TSB s competition for Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrations 12 month road trial First vehicles on roads in December 2009 Final vehicles by March 2011 Trial users Domestic rather than fleet Broad mix of car usage Ability to charge at home Data collection GPS journey data State of charge of battery Home charging time and energy transfer

13

14 Charging Point Installation 36 public charge points installed in Birmingham and Coventry - Public car parks - Private car parks - Street side E.ON E.ON 28 workplace charge points 73 domestic charge points E.ON 14

15 Percentage of journeys Comparison of CABLED and National Travel Survey 70% 60% 50% CABLED NTS 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 5 5 to to to to Journey distance (miles)

16 Percentage frequency Charge Start Time 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Hour of day

17 Percentage frequency Energy in battery at start of charge 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% kwh

18 Percentage frequency Energy in battery at end of charge 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% kwh

19 Percentage frequency Percentage of charges at location types 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Home Work Public Other

20 Time (hours) Average charge duration at locations 03:00 02:30 02:00 01:30 01:00 00:30 00:00 Home Work Public Other

21 Electricity demand per car in kw Electricity Demand Profile Home Work Unknown Public All Hour of day

22 Grid Demand in MW Total UK Grid Demand in :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 00:00 Time of the Day Based on: - 300k BEVs 1.4m PHEVs 1 PHEV = 0.5 BEV Base demand EV demand Total demand

23 Grid Demand in MW Total UK Grid Demand in :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 00:00 Time of the Day Based on: - 35 million BEVs Assumed 40% more efficient by 2050 Base demand EV demand Total demand

24 Summary EVs provide an environmental benefit now and this will get bigger. CABLED EVs are being used in a similar manner to conventional cars. People start showing range anxiety when their batteries drop below 25% full. Home is the preferred choice for charging location. If work charging is available, the split is around 50% at home, and 50% at work. There were an insufficient number of public charging points in CABLED to learn how much people will use them in the future. The increase in UK electricity demand due to EVs will be small, and with overnight charging, peak demand will be almost unaffected. Hotspots of EV ownership are likely to require local grid reinforcement in only a few years unless staggered charging can be encouraged. 24

25 Qualcomm - Wireless Charging Trial in London Inductive Power Transfer is an innovative system for wireless charging of batteries in an electric vehicle To charge, a vehicle simply has to be parked over the induction pad and the charging will commence 1. Power supply 2. Transmitter 3. Magnetic Resonance Transmission 4. Receiver 5. Data Transmission 6. Controller 7. Battery

26 Any questions?

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