Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) insights and Partnering Opportunities for State Legislators. Dennis A. Smith, P.E.

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1 Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV) insights and Partnering Opportunities for State Legislators Dennis A. Smith, P.E. Vehicle Technologies Office/ Clean Cities Team NCSL Capitol Forum December 9, 2015

2 Oil Dependency is Dominated by On-Road Vehicles Transportation is responsible for 2/3 of U.S. petroleum usage On-Road vehicles responsible for 85% of transportation petroleum usage More than 240 million vehicles on The Cost of Oil is Not Just Monetary the road Economic security, energy security, and environmental stewardship Changing energy landscape Natural gas Electrification Fuel Economy Standards 2

3 US DOE Clean Cities Primary Goal and Results PRIMARY GOAL: Mass market adoption of alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles and smarter driving / purchasing habits Reduced Petroleum Use in Transportation PRIMARY GOAL RESULTS Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduced Dependence on Foreign Oil Improved US Energy, Economic, and Environmental Security 3

4 Portfolio of Today s Vehicle Technologies Alternative Fuels Electric Vehicles Biodiesel Ethanol Hydrogen Propane Natural Gas Idle Reduction Heavy-Duty Trucks School & Transit Buses Light-Duty Vehicles Eliminate Fuel Economy More Fuel efficient vehicles, adopting smarter driving and vehicle purchasing habits Hybrids Light- and heavy-duty Electric hybrids Plug-In hybrids Hydraulic hybrids OMG Our highway trust fund will Disappear!! 4

5 Realizing Benefits of Vehicle Technology Takes Time Vehicle Technology Penetration Years After Initial Significant Use It has taken about years for a technology to reach maximum market penetration. 5 Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010, EPA420-R , November 2010, p. 69. Argonne National Lab e-drive analysis 2015, and RL Polk data from 2014

6 Miles Per Gallon Vehicles Are Becoming Increasingly Fuel Efficient CAFE is expected to save consumers between $372 and $507 billion by 2025, 1 but decrease fuel tax revenues by $57 billion by Federal Light-duty Fuel Economy Standards 1. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Dinan and Austin, Passenger Cars Light-Duty Trucks U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuel Data Center 6

7 US-DOE Clean Cities Parallel Approach Implement national policies and initiatives by facilitating change on a National, State, and Local basis State and Local Develop a Franchise model (designate CC coalitions) so that approach and message are consistent everywhere, but with attention to local market conditions and priorities (provide strategic direction and critical training to localities) National Provide a national unbiased source of info Provide tools, experts to address barriers and solve problems Develop Corporate Partnerships with Industry and National Fleets Increase awareness and publicize success through mass media and outreach Provide financial assistance to jump start markets and incentivize private investment 7

8 Nearly 100 coalitions with thousands of stakeholders Representing ~80% of US population

9 Alternative Fuel Vehicles in Use Source: DOE/NREL Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) -

10 U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) Millions Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Sales Growth 260, , , , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Cumulative U.S. Plug-In Vehicle Sales New Sales during current month U.S. Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales PEV sales status: ~ 350,000 sales to date ~ 8,000 to 10,000/month 10 Source: Edrive sales analysis Argonne National Laboratory

11 Where are all the Plug-in EVs going? (top 10 states) State National Fraction % of vehicles in state California 45.28% 0.54% Implemented new EV fees Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X Washington 4.41% 0.28% X New York 4.04% 0.15% Florida 3.72% 0.08% Texas 3.56% 0.05% Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X Illinois 2.40% 0.08% New Jersey 2.15% 0.10% Oregon 2.04% 0.24% Subtotal = 76.4% NCSL workshop attendees Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)

12 Most States with EV fees don t have many EVs yet State National Fraction % of vehicles in state Idaho 0.15% 0.04% Included on Top-10 list Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X Washington 4.41% 0.28% X North Carolina 1.21% 0.06% Wyoming 0.03% 0.02% Colorado 1.44% 0.11% Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X Nebraska 0.21% 0.04% Virginia 1.30% 0.06% Missouri 0.67% 0.05% Subtotal = 18.2% Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data) NCSL workshop attendees

13 Most States with EV fees don t have many EVs yet State National Fraction % of vehicles in state Idaho 0.15% 0.04% Included on Top-10 list Georgia 5.58% 0.24% X Washington 4.41% 0.28% X North Carolina 1.21% 0.06% Wyoming 0.03% 0.02% Colorado 1.44% 0.11% Michigan 3.17% 0.13% X Nebraska 0.21% 0.04% Virginia 1.30% 0.06% Missouri 0.67% 0.05% Subtotal = 5.01% Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data)

14 Most States with EV fees don t have many EVs yet State National Fraction Source: NREL analysis VIO_2014 (R.L. Polk data) % of vehicles in state Est no. of PEVs registered/mo* Idaho 0.15% 0.04% <15 Georgia 5.58% 0.24% 500 Washington 4.41% 0.28% 400 North Carolina 1.21% 0.06% 110 Wyoming 0.03% 0.02% <3 Colorado 1.44% 0.11% 130 Michigan 3.17% 0.13% 285 Nebraska 0.21% 0.04% 19 Virginia 1.30% 0.06% 117 Missouri 0.67% 0.05% 60 Subtotal = 18.2% 1,638 NCSL workshop attendees *Est. based on 8-10k PEV sales/mo.

15 Cumulative PEV Sales in the US, by model 200,000 $7,500 Federal tax break threshold Sales through October , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Leaf Volt Tesla Model S* Prius PHEV Ford Fusion Energi Ford C- Max Energi BMW i3 Ford Focus Smart ED Fiat 500E Source: Edrive sales analysis Argonne National Laboratory

16 Next Steps for State Legislators Do your homework on alternative fuels. Don t panic, You have time, so Plan Wisely. Modernize taxation approach to accommodate CAFE trends, new technologies, and maximize Benefits to your state. Consider Pilot projects before making sweeping changes. One size may not fit all fuels and technologies. Consider threshold triggers or sunset incentives that kick-in when adoption rates reach a reasonable level. Partner with key Stakeholders to plan for Smart AFV growth. Work with Clean Cities coalitions to identify critical public and private partners, and to enhance your AFV skill level. 16

17 Nearly 100 coalitions with thousands of stakeholders Representing ~80% of US population

18 Alternative Fuels Data Center Technical Assistance for all of the major Alternative Fuels Laws and Incentives database Fueling Station Locator, Maps, and data Cost Calculators and analytical tools Fleet Profiles, Videos, and Case Studies 18

19 Contact Information & Important Links Dennis A. Smith US Department of Energy National Clean Cities Director Office: (202) Clean Cities Website: Clean Cities Coordinators: Alternative Fuels Data Center: Fuel Economy - MPG ratings and Consumer Information: Technical Response Service: mailto:technicalresponse@icfi.com or