RESNET Resilient Electricity Networks Future resilience of Northern Ireland s Infrastructure Belfast March 2014

Transcription

1 RESNET Resilient Electricity Networks Future resilience of Northern Ireland s Infrastructure Belfast March 2014 Sarah Mander (School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester)

2 Challenges to resilience In period to 2080 (i) Decarbonisation of supply mix (ii) Shifting non-electric energy demand onto grid (iii) Climate impacts on levels of demand performance of electricity infrastructure

3 RESNET: focus The resilience of electricity networks to a changing climate (emphasis on transmission rather than distribution)

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5 Understanding electricity demand and supply (WP2) Quantitative scenarios of demand for each sector Highly disaggregated (~150 individual demand parameters) Spatially resolved into 17 zones (grouped into 3 weather zones ) Changes in diurnal demand (load profile) In response to policy Uptake of new energy consuming technologies Changing behavioural practices

6 2010 baseline load profile Evening peak and day-time plateau major components: lighting; computing and electronics. Other space heating i.e. on-peak - contributes significant load Source: Sustainability First, 2012

7 Electric vehicles: fleet penetration & annual electricity demand

8 National Grid based scenario 8

9 National Grid based scenario 9

10 TWh National Grid based scenario 1, Total electricity demand Agriculture Transport Energy Industry Industry Commercial Domestic

11 Load profiles NG-based scenario

12 Load profiles NG-based scenario

13 Load profiles NG-based scenario

14 Load profiles NG-based scenario

15 Source: BBC, 2013 Losing resilience: winter storms Across the UK, 750,000 people lost electricity 10,000 households in Northern Ireland 50,000 without electricity over xmas

16 Losing resilience: large-scale blackouts Location Date Description Duration No. affected Italy & Sept All of mainland Italy, parts Italy: 12 to 48 hrs 56m Switzerland 2003 of Switzerland (and some Switzerland: 3 hrs parts of Austria, France and Slovenia) India July 2012 Largest ever blackout 3 out 5 electricity grids failed 22 out of 28 states without power Northeast blackout: America and Canada Hurricane Sandy: US / Canada / Caribbean August 2003 October 2012 Widespread power outage Northeastern and Midwestern US and Ontario, Canada Largest weather-related power outage caused by a single event in the U.S Cause Initial trigger: flashover between overhead line and tree due to line sagging as core temp rose Cascade effect across interconnected network 2 days 600m Heatwave / late monsoon : rising demand & reduced hydropower; 2 states alleged to have overdrawn power; Interconnector tripped and cascaded to neighbouring grids 4-7 days 50 m Initial trigger: tree falling on overhead line; inadequate response 1-2 weeks 8.1 million in US Hurricane, flooding etc

17 Power cuts in the day to day Communication keeping spare phone handy Keeping warm Feeding the family Securing water supplies Darkness Medical needs e.g. oxygen dispensers Health and safety related requirements, e.g. changing/removing contact lenses Security and vulnerability to theft Communication Water Health

18 Resilience at the household scale Designing out resilience increasing reliance on electricity services Increasing electrification in the home for convenience, comfort and cleanliness Changing norms and lifestyle requirements, e.g. laptops, entertainment and security systems. Designing in resilience decreasing dependence on electricity services Alternative sources for water and heating Alternative sources of electricity Insulation

19 Resilience at the wider scale Resistance: providing protection E.g. Protect sub-stations with flood defences Reliability: ensuring that components can operate under a range of conditions What is the performance under extremes? Redundancy: back-up or spare capacity E.g. Use of back-up generators Response and recovery: providing a fast and effective response

20 Resilience to wind storms Low magnitude event (14 m/s) Resistance enhances resilience Medium magnitude event (20 m/s) Redundancy enhances resilience High magnitude event (36 m/s) Response and recovery enhances resilience Source: Northern Power Grid, 2014

21 Summary Climate change challenges the resilience of networks on multiple fronts Interconnectedness of modern infrastructure brings additional vulnerability Resilience is manifested at different scales and has different facets Planning has to accommodate the unexpected

22 With thanks to Ruth Wood, Dan Calverley, Steven Glynn, Kevin Anderson, Jaise Kuriakose,Clair Gough, Lisa Bell, Dana Abi Ghanem (Tyndall Manchester) Ian Cotton, Pierluigi Mancarella, Xiaolong Hu (Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Manchester) Sean Wilkinson, Gaihua Fu, Richard Dawson, Lucy Manning, Cassie Pickering (School of Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Newcastle University) Thanks for listening