Mobility Ecosystem 2030

Transcription

1 Mobility Ecosystem 2030 Presentation to the Drive Midlands Conference 16 May 2017

2 Mobility 2030 Your presenter John Leech, UK Automotive Sector Leader at KPMG 26 years automotive experience with OEMs, dealers and suppliers in UK, US and Germany on audit, M&A, strategy and turnaround Authored studies for SMMT: Supply chain inward investment Brexit Connected and autonomous cars Digitalisation Secondment to DTI to project manage the Automotive Innovation and Growth Team Advisory Board Member of Drive Midlands Presented to Number 10 Policy Unit, BEIS, DIT on government policy for the automotive sector Tel:

3 Mobility 2030 KPMG convened key companies from across the ecosystem to help architect UKmobility2030 Ford Visteon Inchcape AA Europcar Microsoft BP Vodafone Arup Costain WS Atkins Ricardo National Express Motability Centrica National Grid Tom Tom HSBC AXA DfT Addison Lee Skanska Arriva OLEV [ ] Mobility

4 Mobility 2030 Three main disruptive forces will fundamentally transform how people and things move Electric Vehicles Mobility Value Chain Changing consumer and societal demands Autonomous Vehicles Mobility as a Service Collaboration in the future Mobility Ecosystem 4

5 Mobility 2030 A pervasive global mega-trend with many implications Industry execs believe that. Up to 50% Passenger miles travelled will increase. Up to 10% Cost per mile could go down Up to 40% of consumers will not want to own a car, as new mobility services begin to meet consumer needs following the growth of the mega-city and their suburbs due to removing the driver cost, longer vehicle lives, new energy sources, technologies and mobility scaling 5x Miles per vehicle could increase. as fleet services use vehicles more efficiently The number of major ecosystem players will decline as sector convergence leads to consolidation? Sources: Department for Transport, KPMG Global Auto Executive Survey 2017,KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 5

6 Battery energy density (Wh/l) Electric vehicle technology will be fully embedded, with battery Battery cost forecasts support mass market adoption in 3-4 yearsd charging infrastructure suitable for all length journeys Mobility Trends and 2030 Insights Electric Vehicles Battery density and cost efficiency is increasing rapidly 450 1, , Battery cost (USD/KWh) 99.3% of UK car journeys today are within the range of existing battery technology (100 miles) US DOE energy density (PHEV) Energy density target (PHEV) US DOE battery cost (PHEV) Tesla battery cost target (BEV) GM battery cost target (BEV) Sources: IEA Global EV Outlook, 2016, Motor Trader, Energy Saving Trust, National Transport Survey, GreenThenSolar.com, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Analysis 6

7 Mobility Trends 2030 and Insights Autonomous Vehicles Level 4 autonomy in early 2020s; Level 5 potentially in 2030sll be available and embedded within a wider supporting ecosystem Ford, BMW, Nissan targeting L4 AV car for 2021 Autonomy Level No Autonomy L0 Driver Assistance L1 Partial Autonomy L2 Conditional Autonomy L3 High Autonomy L4 Full Autonomy L5 Timeline Blind Spot Monitoring Intersection Pilot Safety Intelligent Speed Adaption Lane Departure Warning Lane Keep Assist (LKA) Collision Avoidance Emergency Driver Assistant Connectivity Autonomy Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) Park Assist (steering only) Vehicle to Vehicle Communication 3D Cloud Based Navigation Traffic Jam Assist Valet Park Assist Geo-fenced autonomous driving Full endto-end experience Highway Autopilot Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis Stretch case 7

8 m # Deals Trends and Insights Autonomous Vehicles Mobility 2030 Autonomous Vehicle technology M&A is now growinghe pace of development AV Tech Global Deals, Value and Volume, f Source: CB Insights 2016 Investment Investment ( m) ( m) Deals 8

9 Mobility 2030 The UK will be an early adopter of these new mobility solutions Demographic, regulatory and cultural factors means the UK will lead the adoption of EV, AV and MaaS The UK has a high proportion of the population in high density areas Congestion pricing and air quality regulations will subsidise early adoption Personal distance travelled in personal vehicles in the UK is low relative to other major economies The Government plans to remove insurance barriers for AVs and is offering significant funding for testing whilst cost per mile of personal vehicles is high Sources: UK Census data (2011), Experian, UK Data Service, Reuters 9

10 Mobility 2030 An autonomous, electric, mobility service will be cheaper than private ownership (on a cost per mile basis) Cost per mile UK modes National & Metropolitan Rail Electrified AV Mobility Services 2030 MaaS provision could be up to 40% cheaper than private ownership Taxi c Local/National bus Private AV Ride-hailing services Size indicates relative number of miles travelled per capita per year Sources: Department for Transport, Transport for London, KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis Stretch case 10

11 Mobility 2030 We forecast autonomous, mobility services will account for over a quarter of miles travelled by 2040 Passenger distance travelled by year (billion km) 1, % 9% 17% 850 6% 9% 17% 875 2% 5% 8% 17% 899 3% 7% 7% 5% 8% 926 6% 17% 16% 8% 27% % 64% % % 50% % 7% 15% 32% 26% 3% 6% 12% 14% Personal Vehicle Commercial PV Rail Bus AV Mobility AV Personal Dynamic Shuttle Baseline 11

12 Sales volume Mobility 2030 By 2030, mobility services will have a significant impact on new car sales UK Light Vehicles Sold UK New Car Sales 20% Mass penetration of AV mobility services Notes: Light vehicle sales include cars and light commercial vehicles Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 Scenario Analysis Stretch case 12

13 Show me the money Value chain today The value derived from today s personal car is driven by upstream & downstream elements with the customer self-aggregating services Current scenario Upstream Downstream Revenues from a personally owned vehicle over a 10 year period where the consumer is the service aggregator 20,000 35,000 Customer Downstream Fuel retailer Upstream Government End of life Insurance Raw material supplier Tier II Tier I Finance Spares Remarket Labour OEM Dealer Car Workshop Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 13

14 Show me the money Value chain in 2030 The value derived in 2030 will be weighted towards the downstream with aggregators providing seamless services to customers 2030 scenario Upstream Downstream Integrated values, driving the customer to the centre Revenues from a EV, AV, MaaS vehicle over a 10 year period, where mobility service providers and integrators aggregate services for consumers Customer 25, ,000 up to 475,000 Downstream Upstream Mobility Services Provider Experience aggregator Data aggregator Raw material supplier Tier II Vehicle Management as a Service End of Life Retail Other cars OEM Media Other modes Tier I Battery Electric Autonomous Vehicle Energy Finance Insurance Service & Repair Other services Infrastructure Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 14

15 Show me the money Downstream Downstream growth will be driven by incremental revenue streams enabled by a digital platform Parking & Cleaning 13% Government 45% 30, ,000 to 475,000 Resale 3% Today Workshop 7% Parts 7% Finance 6% Energy 12% Insurance 14% New / Incremental Revenues 41% Vehicle Fleet Management 9% Workshops 6% Parts 8% 2030 Parking & Cleaning 5% Energy 8% Insurance 11% Finance <1% Government 15% Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 15

16 Show me the money Downstream The new ecosystem provides both potential opportunities and challenges for incumbent participants Workshops Workshops will see increased throughput but less revenue from accident repair Parts Electric cars have far fewer mechanical parts but additional wear and tear Energy Demand for traditional fuels will reduce and home/work charging points will grow Insurance B2C insurance products will phase out but new B2B product opportunities to OEMs and fleet providers will emerge Finance Government Growth in financing of fleets, reconfigured consumer finance to support pay per mile services New tax revenue streams to replace fuel duty but will continue to support air quality and climate change to accelerate change in car parc Infrastructure Traditional showrooms and petrol forecourts will be repurposed Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 16

17 Show me the money Downstream There are a number of critical success factors which need to be addressed Customer experience and ownership Skill at integrating/interconnecting with other ecosystem elements Consider all three elements of the ecosystem: physical, data and finance Advanced data analytics capabilities Secure network and data infrastructure Source: KPMG UK Mobility 2030 analysis 17

18 Mobility 2030 Disruption for auto industry Potential implications in the next years Sales UK new car sales to fall upto 20% by This together with direct online sales by manufacturers means fewer vehicle showrooms B2B or Fleet becomes a key customer for the auto industry Diesel, then petrol and in future non-av vehicles may see residual value weakening and be subject to scrappage schemes Business Model Different sales models for Personal Autonomous (B2C) and Autonomous Mobility (B2B) Rural, commuter and urban areas will become more differentiated and require different business models OEMs Cost structure of facilities adjusted to lower breakeven volume Connected car offers direct relationship with driver and new service-oriented business models Refocus from shifting metal to maximising the value of miles travelled Shifting Profit Pools New Autonomous Mobility Services market entrants (Amazon? Uber? Google?) Decline in aftermarket collision parts and repairs business; offset by growth in refurbishment parts for longer mileage vehicles 18

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