RUSSIAN MARKET MOTOR OILS FOR PASSENGER CARS AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

Transcription

1 RUSSIAN MARKET MOTOR OILS FOR PASSENGER CARS AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES MARKETING REPORT SEPTEMBER 2017

2 Addressed to marketing experts, analysts, directors and managers involved in automotive business From corporate authors This is a result of the new stage of the research on the Russian engine oil market, started by AUTOSTAT specialists in The fact that the research covers not only passenger cars but also light commercial vehicles and contains more detailed analysis of the consumer characteristics of the parc as well as sequential analysis of the dynamics of the major market indicators from the demand to the forecast of the market capacity are distinctive features of the research. As before, we would like to emphasize that all available information sources were used and expert evaluation method was applied only in some cases due to the lack of data. The report contains five parts. The first part includes the overview of the demand in the market of motor oil for passenger cars and LCVs by type, viscosity index and quality class, as well as methods of the calculation of yearly demand for motor oil and the market capacity for each vehicle type in The second part covers import and export of motor oil of the leading manufacturers as well as analysis of their volume dynamics in The third part contains analysis of the competitive sphere of the market, retail and pricing structures of the leading foreign and Russian brands in the large Russian cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don, Samara, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk. An annual analysis of retail price dynamics is offered for the Moscow market. We also included evaluation of the marketing positions of the leading market participants according to the quality of the product range and marketing activity. The fourth part includes analysis of the consumer characteristics development in the passenger car and LCV parcs as well as a review of the motor oil market forecast for The fifth part contains results of the car owners poll, revealing their behavior as motor oil consumers, awareness of brands and oil characteristics, preferences in choice, purchasing and oil changing places. We hope that the report will help our customers get a full picture of the Russian motor oil market and its development. We would like to get your feedback as well, as we need both precise information and candid criticism. We will be grateful for your recommendations on the report improvement. Please your wishes at pushkarev@autostat.ru With respect for all colleagues Victor Pushkarev, Project manager of Automotive Statistics company.

3 content 1. DEMAND 1.1. Consumer characteristics of passenger car parc Passenger car motor oil market capacity Consumer characteristics of LCV parc LCV motor oil market capacity IMPORT & EXPORT 2.1. General characteristics of motor oil import to Russia in Import dynamics by oil manufacturers and brands in General indicators of motor oil export in Russia in Export dynamics by oil manufacturers and brands in COMPETITION 3.1. Analysis of motor oil offering in the key regional markets Overview of the leading market participants MARKET FORECAST 4.1 Analysis of the dynamics and the main trends of passenger car and LCV parcs Forecast of motor oil market for CONSUMER OPINIONS 5.1. General characteristics of the respondents Analysis of car owners awareness of oil consumer characteristics Analysis of car owners behavior during oil purchase and change APPENDIX 1 Passenger car motor oil market capacity (calculated), mln. l LCV motor oil market capacity (calculated) mln. l APPENDIX 2 Model supply structures in the retail markets of Russian cities

4 1. DEMAND 1.1. Consumer characteristics of passenger car parc Consumer characteristics of passenger cars, that determine their requirements for motor oil and its service characteristics depend on the indicators of the automotive parc such as engine capacity, fuel type, toxicity standard class and an age of the vehicle. On 1 January 2017, passenger car parc was about XX.X million vehicles, including XX.X million vehicles (XX%) with petrol engines and X.XX million cars (X%) with diesel engines... Age structure of Russian passenger car parc Until 3 years years years years years 1 Older 20 years Euro class Euro-0 Euro-1 Euro-2 Euro-3 Euro-4 Euro-5 Euro-6 Number, mln un. Petrol engine Share, % Number, mln un. Diesel engine Share, % About XX% of petrol engine vehicles are under X years old, while the share of old vehicles over XX years old exceeds XX%. Over XX% of vehicles with diesel engines are not more than X years old and over XX yearold vehicles generate about XX%. The main characteristic of the parc analyzing by API classes is pooling of the data on several classes as many automobile manufacturers extend service capability and allow use of previous generation oils in the new engines... Class, allowance API SG/SH API SJ API SL/SM/SN API SM/SN BMW MERCEDES-BENZ FORD GM PSA VOLKSWAGEN RENAULT Active foreign car parc 2016, un. (petrol) Share, % Class, allowance Active domestic car parc 2016, un. (petrol) Share, % SE/SF SF/SG SG/SH/SJ SH/SJ SJ/SL SL/SM/SN Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 3

5 1.4. LCV motor oil market capacity Capacity of LCV motor oil market was calculated with the above explained method (see point ). According to our estimation, in 2016 Russian LCVs needed about XX.X million liters of motor oil, including XX million liters for vehicles with petrol engines and XX.X million liters for diesel vehicles... Dynamics of Russian LCV motor oil market Calculated market capacity, mln. l Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 8

6 2. IMPORT & EXPORT 2.1. General characteristics of motor oil import to Russia in 2016 According to our evaluation, in 2016, about XXX million liters of motor oil for passenger cars and LCVs were imported to Russia by over XXX companies, mostly oil manufacturers. The largest importers were traditionally well-known companies such as BP, EXXONMOBIL, TOTAL LUBRIFIANTS, SK-LUBRICANTS and MOTUL. We should mention that some domestic companies were involved in the import as well. The largest domestic importers are LUKOIL and, which imported its products manufactured by their foreign subsidiaries LUKOIL LUBRICANTS EUROPE (Finland) and LUBRICANTS ITALIA (Italy). The products were imported under over XXX trademarks, including XX automotive brands and about XX brands of domestic manufacturers... Manufacturer BP-CASTROL EXXONMOBIL TOTAL LUBRIFIANTS SK-LUBRICANTS LIQUI MOLY MOTUL NIPPON/ENEOS IDEMITSU SCT LUBRICANTS SHELL GS CALTEX CORP ОЕМ Special Other* Import volume in 2016, th. liters Import share, % *Approximate estimate Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 9

7 3. COMPETITION 3.1. Analysis of motor oil offering in the key regional markets To analyze the list of the market participants and their market positions, method of regional data slices for large Russian cities with well-developed motor oil retail markets was applied. In this case, data of six cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Rostov-on-Don, Samara, Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk) were used to analyze the product offering. Data obtained from the distributors catalogues and retail price lists, active in these cities, including retail networks of spare parts and automotive oils, retail shops and service centers, as well as local e-shops. We should also mention, that we also analyzed types and kinds of motor oil, used for passenger car and LCV engines, including diesel oils of not less than API CI-4 class... Approximate structure of motor oil offering in the Moscow retail market (by brands) MOBIL LUKOIL LIQUI MOLY CASTROL SHELL MOTUL ZIC MANNOL TOTAL ELF XADO OIL RIGHT LUXE SELENIA VOLGA-OIL ENEOS PETRONAS G-ENERGY BP VISCO IDEMITSU Specials OEM (15 brands) Other (24 brands) Average retail prices of mineral motor oil in the Moscow market (by brands) Price of a can 4 l., RUB LUKOIL VOLGA-OIL *Price of 5-liter can Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 13

8 3.1. Analysis of motor oil offering in the key regional markets Analysis of the yearly dynamics of Moscow retail prices revealed that the process of price changes during 2016 was absolutely different for domestic and foreign brands. So, almost all Russian brands, except for, increased their retail prices, while almost all foreign companies registered a decline in retail prices. This trend has a very clear reason. In 2015 the prices of all imported oils grew a lot due to the crisis growth in the exchange rates, while the prices of Russian oils increased very moderately, compensating for inflationary costs and the currency funds used in production... Brand BP VISCO* CASTROL ENEOS LUXE* MANNOL MOBIL OIL RIGHT* SHELL LUKOIL *5-liter can (petrol) Brand Average retail price of a 4-liter can of mineral oil, RUB. January 2016 January 2017 Dynamics, % Average retail price of a 4-liter can of semi-synthetic oil, RUB. January 2016 January 2017 Dynamics, % BP VISCO CASTROL ELF ENEOS G-ENERGY LIQUI MOLY LUXE MANNOL MOBIL MOTUL OIL RIGHT SHELL TOTAL ZIC LUKOIL (petrol) Brand Average retail price of a 4-liter can of synthetic oil, RUB. January 2016 January 2017 Dynamics, % BP VISCO CASTROL ELF ENEOS G-ENERGY IDEMITSU LIQUI MOLY MANNOL MOBIL MOTUL SHELL TOTAL VALVOLINE HADO ZIC LUKOIL Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 15

9 3.2. Overview of the leading market participants As the information on the results of motor oil sales by manufacturers and their distributors is unavailable, we have to apply proxy indicators, characterizing the results of the activity in the key market sectors to assess their market positions. In our opinion, it is worth to evaluate the following indicators: quality of the product range characteristics of product offering volume of import and export marketing activity As for the product range, the first we should mention is the fact that almost all leading foreign manufacturers continue to develop synthetic oil production technologies and have only X X items of mineral products... Manufacturer Brand Oil type Number of oil with the same API class Petrol engines Diesel engines SN/CF SL/CF SG/CD SN/CF SM/CF SL/CF CF Total number of products BP CASTROL EXXONMOBIL MOBIL SHELL SHELL TOTAL ELF TOTAL Manufacturer Brand Oil type Petrol engines SN/CF SM/СF SM SL/CF SJ/СF SG/CD SF/CC Total number of products LUKOIL LUKOIL DELFIN GROUP G-ENERGY LUXE OIL RIGHT *Products for HUNDRED Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 16

10 4. MARKET FORECAST 4.1 Analysis of the dynamics and the main trends of passenger car and LCV parcs In 2016 the number of passenger cars registered in Russia increased from XX.XX million to XX.X million cars, i.е. the growth was only X.X%. At the same time, the share of the active parc increased by X.X%, while the share of the inactive parc decreased by X.X%. We should also mention that according to consumer characteristics of the automobile parc, its active part is subdivided into two groups: vehicles, whose design complies with outdated standards and vehicles that meet the requirements of the current standards. As the standards, we mean API classes and automakers approvals... Dynamics of passenger car parc by oil quality classes and automakers standards Parc, mln. un Inactive parc Active parc (outdated standards) Active parc (current standards) New API classes Automaker Active parc 2015, th. un. Active parc 2016, th. un. Volume of automobile sales in 2016, th. un. Parc growth in 2016, % BMW MERCEDES-BENZ FORD PSA VW /AUDI/ SKODA RENAULT Other (API SL/SM/SN + CI-4/CJ-4) Other s of «Automotive Market in Russia» series can be ordered at AUTOSTAT analytic agency. 19

11 our products Address: 8, Noviy Proezd St., office 302 Togliatti, Samara reg., Russia Post address: , Togliatti, post box 4816 Phone: +7 (8482) (499) URL: www. au tos tat. ru ru Reference book «Automotive market in Russia» is published once a year. It contains results of the Russian market development for the previous year, different estimations including financial ones, and forecast of further development of the market. The reference book includes three parts: production, sales and parc of vehicles in Russia. Marketing reports contain analysis of separate segments of the automotive market. The reports are prepared with an office research method. The sources of information are data of the State Customs Committee, State Traffic Safety Inspectorate, as well as our own databases and information, obtained from the market players directly. about the company AUTOSTAT analytic agency has been operating in the Russian information market since The demand for its reports and their appreciation by the market players enabled the marketing research of the automotive market to become the main activity of AUTOSTAT agency. The experience of the agency s specialists in automotive and financial spheres as well as specialization in automotive sector enables to prepare s on actual subjects. We are preparing s on the main themes: Commercial vehicles market in Russia Passenger cars market in Russia Automotive components and spare parts market in Russia Automotive industry in Russia Assembly and localization of foreign vehicles in Russia our clients For the years of the agency s operation, our reports have been bought by over 2,000 companies including automotive and component manufacturers, leading Russian and foreign consulting agencies, big banks and insurance companies such as PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young (CIS)B. V., Boston Consulting Group, Booz Allen Hamilton Inc, Deloitte & Touche CIS, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frost & Sullivan, McKinsey & Company, Mitsui & Co. Ltd, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor Rus, Volkswagen Group Rus, BMW Rusland Trading, Amtel Vredestein, Continental Tires Rus, Dupont Russia, Varta Buttery GmbH, ZF Trading GmbH, Robert Bosch, BASF, AVTOVAZ, Sollers, ZAZ SeAZ, Rossgosstrah, Ingosstrah, ROSNO, Ugoria, Europlan, Alfabank», Russian standard bank, MDM and many others. Founder Director Corporate authors Translation Marketing division Production editor Distribution Date of issue «Autostat» Sergey Tselikov Sergey Udalov Andrey Toptun Victor Pushkarev Inga Zayceva Vedy Co Violetta Toptun Elena Almakaeva Address delivery in Russia and abroad September 2017 Complete list of researches is available at our site www. autostat. ru To order or purchase the current and forthcoming marketing researches please contact us via avb@autostat. ru and phones: +7 (8482) , +7 (499) Please make sure to include in you order: requisites of your organization, leader s name and surname or customer s ones including a job title, telephone/fax numbers, . No part of the «Russian market motor oils for lung and lung commercials automobiles» may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without the written permission of «AUTOSTAT». Dissemination of the information via Internet is not permitted.