Will Automotive be the Future of Mobility? Frank Rieck Vice President AVERE Chairman Dutch INCERT Applied Research Professor Future Mobility

Transcription

1 Will Automotive be the Future of Mobility? Frank Rieck Vice President AVERE Chairman Dutch INCERT Applied Research Professor Future Mobility Vienna, November 21th 2017

2 Smart e-mobility at RDM

3 Future Mobility

4 Who are they?

5 Alessandro Volta (1745)

6 Nicola Tesla (1856)

7 Energy Transition From fossil to renewable Hydrogen

8 Energy Cliff

9 There is no single solution Systeem Range Charge Cost Emissions Human Battery- Electric system Fair 300 km Bad 3 uur Good Good RA Electric with range extender Good 900 km Good 10 min. Fair cost Fair FA Fuel Cell- Electric system Good 900 km Good 10 min. Bad cost Good NA Horses for Courses

10 NICOLA (2016)

11

12

13 Will Automotive be the future of Mobility? Based on the traditional values of individual freedom and maximum flexibility Major positive disruptive technologies will consolidate the automobile to be the preferred choice for mobility of persons and goods 1. Electrification 2. Automation 3. Connectivity

14 Global Automotive Executive Survey, KPMG 2017

15 But why, because of Paris?

16 Emissions?

17 Drivers for Urban Mobility Today: Air quality / Fine dust Today: Smart Logistics Today: Noise / Quality of live Tomorrow: Energy / CO 2 NO 2 Brussel 2014 Always:

18 The big three urban polluters Urban freight transport Total NOx emissions city traffic in the Netherlands BUSSES VANS CARS LIGHT / MEDIUM TRUCKS HEAVY TRUCKS Estimated total emissions per year per vehicle type for all urban traffic in the Netherlands (TNO, 2015)

19 Influence of the electricity mix on single (eco) score Recipe M. Messagie, J. v. Mierlo cs, A Range-Based Vehicle Life Cycle Assessment Incorporating Variability in the Environmental Assessment of Different Vehicle Technologies and Fuels. Energies, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2014

20 Energy?

21 Well to Wheel Electrification Energieverlies ENERGIE 100% 8% raffinage CO -emissies 33% opwekking elektriciteit 5% elektriciteitsnet 6% batterij 4% elektrische motor 4% mechanische verliezen aandrijflijn BRUIKBARE ENERGIE ELEKTRISCHE AUTO 9% raffinage 64% diesel motor Energieverlies ENERGIE 100% CO emissies 7% mechanische verliezen aandrijflijn BRUIKBARE ENERGIE (bron: Protoscar) DIESELAUTO

22 Well to Wheel comparison EV & ICE

23 Recuperation of brake energy Maastunnel RET Lijn 46

24 Future Proof Raw Energy Needs 1,6 1,4 rela>ve needed raw energy 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 electric 0,2 0 ICE (2011) ICE tarsand EV dutch mix 2011 EV mix 2050 usefull TTW-loss WTT-loss

25 Congestion?

26 Give-back freedom of time

27 Pilot assist or self driving cars

28 Accidents?

29 Safety Levels Level Name Narrative definition Execution of steering and acceleration/ deceleration Monitoring of driving environment Fallback performance of dynamic driving task System capability (driving modes) BASt level - NHTSA level Human driver monitors the driving environment 0 No the full-time performance by the human driver of all aspects of the dynamic driving task, Automation even when enhanced by warning or intervention systems Human driver Human driver Human driver n/a Driver only 0 1 Driver Assistance the driving mode-specific execution by a driver assistance system of either steering or acceleration/deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task Human driver and system Human driver Human driver Some driving modes Assisted 1 2 Partial Automation the driving mode-specific execution by one or more driver assistance systems of both steering and acceleration/deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task System Human driver Human driver Some driving modes Partially automated 2 Automated driving system ( system ) monitors the driving environment 3 the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of Conditional the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond Automation appropriately to a request to intervene System System Human driver Some driving modes Highly automated 3 4 the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of High the dynamic driving task, even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a Automation request to intervene System System System Some driving modes Fully automated 3/4 5 Full Automation the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver System System System All driving modes

30 Empty?

31 Private, public or sharing

32 Cost?

33 EV s will break even soon Sharing will make them earn

34 Maintenance and durability PAGE 52

35 Summary 3D-6Z 3 Disruptions 6 Zero s Electrification Automation Connectivity Zero Emission Zero Energy Zero Congestion Zero Accident Zero Empty Zero Cost

36 Conclusion: Back to the future

37 Prof. Sibrandus Stratingh (1785) Probably the first electric powered vehicle in the World (1835)

38 Ludwig Lohner & Ferdinand Porsche (1858 & 1875) First in-wheel motor electric & hybrid car in the World (1900)

39 Mutual heavy-wheels reputation

40 Inspired by Volta, Tesla, Stratingh, Lohner and Porsche

41 The first operational Long Haul Range Extender e-truck emoss EVER, launched at the EVS30, October 2017

42 Tesla s e-corridor for traffic Rotterdam - Vienna

43 Challenge: e-corridor for Truck traffic Rotterdam - Vienna

44 Together we can Herzlichen dank

45 Free Online Course (2018)