The Future of Outdoor

Transcription

1 The Future of Outdoor When Nobody is Driving John W. Martin, SIR Today s agenda Tools for Finding the Future The Impact of a Driverless Future Planning for Tomorrow Today Today s agenda Tools for Finding the Future The Impact of a Driverless Future Planning for Tomorrow Today 1

2 The world is an interesting place Largest Retailer HAS NO STORES Largest Media Company PRODUCES NO CONTENT Largest Taxi Company OWNS NO CABS Demographic trends Cultural trends Industry trends The future Demographic trends Cultural trends Industry trends The future 2

3 Born in the U.S.A 76,000,000 62,000,000 58,000,000 44,000,000 Source: Census Bureau 80,000,000 Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Current U.S. Census data Source: Census Bureau 83,000,000 74,000,000 74,000,000 26,000,000 3,800,000 Greatest Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial What s a generation? v Age cohort: 18- to 20-year span v Big events create the bookends v Born on the leading and tail edge cuspers 3

4 TEN SHIFTS IMPACTING OUT-OF-HOME 10 Major Shifts Demographic Population Expands Urban Activity Emerges Diversity Rules Age Shifts Households Change Cultural Frugality Prevails Equity Advances Millennials Dominate Purpose Reigns Marketplace Changes Shift #1: Population GROWS 4

5 U.S. Population Today 324 million million Source: U.S. Census reports U.S. Population Today 324 million +10% million Source: U.S. Census reports North Carolina s Population Growth Source: US Census 9.5 million 2010 Actual 10.7 million million

6 Source: US Census 9.3 millionpopulation Growth 2010 Actual 28% million million South Carolina s Population Growth Source: US Census 4.6 million 2010 Actual 4.8 million million 2030 South Carolina s Population Growth Source: US Census 4.6 millionpopulation Growth 2010 Actual 11% 4.8 million million

7 Shift #2: Urban Areas EMERGE Shift #3: Diversity RULES 7

8 North Carolina s Population Growth Source: US Census 9.3 millionpopulation Growth 2010 Actual 28% million million North Carolina s White Population 2010 to % growth in white population 6.4 M 7.3 M 68.5% 60.5% North Carolina s Non-White Population 2010 to % growth in non-white population 3.1 M 4.8 M

9 Today, in 4 out of the 5 largest North Carolina Cities Whites Are Already The Minority (Only Raleigh has a white majority) North Carolina s Non-White Population Growth Black or African America 1.9M Growth Since % Asian & Pacific Island Hispanic American Indian 209K 800K 123K +83% +111% +22% Similar Story In South Carolina Minority Populations Are Growing Faster Than White Majority Source: US Census 9

10 Shift #4: Age SHIFTS U.S. Population % 13% 16% 19% 20% Source: US Census North Carolina s Population % 14% 15% 17% 18% 2010 Actual Source: US Census 10

11 South Carolina s Population % 16% 18% 20% 22% 2010 Actual Source: US Census The changing ratio Under age 18 Age TODAY 2030 Shift #5: Households CHANGE 11

12 Adults Married 72% 49% SIR-Boomer Project analysis of U.S. Census Data 10 Major Shifts Demographic Population Expands Urban Activity Emerges Diversity Rules Age Shifts Households Change Cultural Frugality Prevails Equity Advances Millennials Dominate Purpose Reigns Marketplace Changes Shift #6: Frugality PREVAILS 12

13 For all consumers New Frugality = Spend less, live smarter, have smaller personal footprint Shift #7: Equity ADVANCES U.S. Poverty Rate and People Number of people: 46M Rate 12% to 15% 13

14 1/3 Millennials under-employed The Lost Decade The Wealth Gap 62+ year olds 7.5X 40 and under 62+ year olds 14.8X 40 and under Source: Federal Reserve Bank Shift #8: Millennials DOMINATE 14

15 MILLENNIALS will shape CULTURE & SOCIETY starting now TODAY: It s their world now 83,000,000 74,000,000 75,000,000 MILLENNIALS Median age: 24 GEN X Median age: 43 BOOMERS Median age: US Census 2025: It s their world now 87,000,000 MILLENNIALS Median age: 34 69,000,000 70,000,000 GEN X Median age: 53 BOOMERS Median age: US Census 15

16 Millennials are ushering in a new sense of COMMUNITY Collaborative Consumption Shift #9: Purpose REIGNS 16

17 PURPOSE Bigger than who you are, what you do, how you do it. It s your WHY. Shift #10: Marketplace CHANGES The rise of digital 17

18 10 Major Shifts Demographic Population Expands Urban Activity Emerges Diversity Rules Age Shifts Households Change Cultural Frugality Prevails Equity Advances Millennials Dominate Purpose Reigns Marketplace Changes Summer 2016: the Tipping Point MAY BMW announces inext, an electric driverless car by JUNE JULY Local Motors announces Olli, electric driverless mini-bus with IBM Watson technology. GM announces investment of $500 million in Lyft, with plans to build autonomous fleet by Uber buys Otto, a start-up developing autonomous 18-wheelers. AUGUST Ford announces Level 4 autonomous vehicles by Delphi and MobilEye announce technology to make a variety of cars driverless available by NuTonomy starts testing driverless taxis in Singapore, with plans for fleet by 2018, and in 10 cities by SEPTEMBER Softbank announces test of autonomous buses in Japan. Uber begins live testing of driverless taxis in Pittsburgh. Welcome to a future of Autonomous Vehicles and happily distracted passengers 18

19 Today s agenda Tools for Finding the Future The Impact of a Driverless Future Planning for Tomorrow Today The U.S auto industry will change more in in the next 5 years than it has in the past 50. Dan Ammann President, General Motors Lyft s Driverless Chevrolet Bolt Taxi Tests Coming in

20 The Lyft View: 1. Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides within 5 years. 2. By 2025, private car ownership will all-but end in major U.S. cities. The Lyft View: Defining Autonomous 20

21 SAE level Name Narrative Definition Human driver monitors the driving environment 0 No the full-time performance by the human driver of all aspects of the dynamic driving task, even when enhanced Automation by warning or intervention systems 1 Driver Assistance 2 Partial Automation the driving mode-specific execution by a driver assistance system of either steering or acceleration/deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task the driving mode-specific execution by one or more driver assistance systems of both steering and acceleration/ deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task Automated driving system ( system ) monitors the driving environment 3 Conditional Automation 4 High Automation 5 Full Automation the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene the driving mode-specific performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task, even if a human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver Execution of Steering and Acceleration/ Deceleration Monitoring of Driving Environment Fallback Performance of Dynamic Driving Task System Capability (Driving Modes) Human driver Human driver Human driver n/a Human driver and system Human driver Human driver System Human driver Human driver System System Human driver System System System System System System Some driving modes Some driving modes Some driving modes Some driving modes All driving modes Key definitions in J3016 include (among others): Copyright 2014 SAE International. The summary table may be freely copied and distributed provided SAE International and J3016 are acknowledged as the source and must be reproduced AS-IS. We will have fully autonomous cars with no steering wheel on the road by Mark Fields CEO, Ford Build and own software powering self-driving cars. Will not manufacture cars, but forge partnerships with automakers. Uber is in the logistics business moving people and goods. 21

22 Uber s Pittsburgh Test September NOW! v Self-driving Volvo SUV and Ford Focus v Up to 100 vehicles v Limited distances within the city v Engineer behind the wheel v Co-pilot also upfront to monitor performance v Free rides 5 ways Autonomous Vehicles will transform life 1. Mainstream by Cabs In Big Cities 2020 for fully automated models being purchased by consumers 2025 for sufficient numbers (cabs and owned vehicles) to make a difference (including $1,000 retrofitting) 2030 a transformative societal impact 22

23 2. Super Safe Since 2009, Google has two million miles. Of all AVs in total, 20+ incidents and one death. U.S. 6 million accidents a year 90% caused by human error 35,000 deaths 3. Self-driving cars will change how we think about travel. 4. Self-driving cars will change how we think about where we live. 23

24 5. Self-driving cars will change what we pay for transportation Autonomous cars operating in a rideshare mode will provide the cheapest per mile transportation ever known to man. Changing Mobility Changes Everything Urban planning/land use road diets, fewer lanes, fewer highways Cities get more dense as less space needed for cars, more available for walking, biking, living Parking lots/garages disappear No more car ownership as corporations have fleets of robo-taxis roaming the streets Redesigned cars, all electric, less need for crash protection No car dealers, mechanics, auto insurance, traffic tickets, gas stations No more ambulance-chasing liability lawyers No car loans Traffic lights, signage less relevant as radar and mapping directs traffic flow Power grid changes to provide charging Less pollution, smog Logistics and flows of goods will improve No DUI, so restaurants/bars will sell more alcohol Mobility for seniors, disabled will change where and how they live Person-to-person movement of goods will become easier (no need deliver in person) Children will be able to move about unsupervised Having a driver s license won t be relevant From 50 Mind-blowing implications of self-driving cars (and trucks) 24

25 Today s agenda Tools for Finding the Future The Impact of a Driverless Future Planning for Tomorrow Today Outdoor Advertising must evolve TODAY TOMORROW Designed primarily to reach people in cars traveling on roads Must reach people wherever they are out-of-home Focused on single occupancy vehicle drivers Intent was to inform, not distract drivers Have to appeal to cars filled with passengers, shared rides Will need to attract eyeballs when incar distractions are now many Minimum entertainment value Maximize entertainment value 3 Ideas to Consider 25

26 1 Use digital technology to deliver more entertaining experience Creativity attracts eyeballs Tech can deliver personalized messages 26

27 Build in interactivity Countdowns draw attention 2 Go after a different set of advertisers 27

28 In the driverless future If Uber/Google/Lyft/Apple own the fleet of electric robo-taxis, then: No car dealers No car repair shops No gas stations No car loans Healthcare Economy 2017 Healthcare industry $14 trillion in spending Healthcare Economy If current trends continue, 30% to 40% of all new jobs created over the next 25 years will be in health care. 28

29 Your Future Healthcare Category Will Be 1/3 of Your Client Base 3 Get creative with what out-of-home advertising means New vehicles create new ad vehicles 29

30 Is inside the car out-of-home space? As cities change, you ll change too Fleets of robo-cabs are moving ads 30

31 Follow the people, not cars or roads Thank You 31