The Age of Vehicle Automation: Opportunities for Transportation Providers. BusCon 2017 Indianapolis, Indiana September 12, 2017

Transcription

1 The Age of Vehicle Automation: Opportunities for Transportation Providers BusCon 2017 Indianapolis, Indiana September 12, 2017

2 About WSP (formerly WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff) Global professional services firm with over 35,000 employees Portfolio in Transportation, Buildings, Power/Energy and Environmental sectors Over ten years of active practice in connected/ automated vehicle market Mcity Ann Arbor, Michigan (Source: University of Michigan)

3 The Race to Driverless Source: Google

4 The Race to Driverless

5 Traffic Safety What if cars (and trucks, and buses ) no longer crashed?

6 Changes in Roadway Capacity AV ONLY Under low-volume conditions, vehicles travel at high speeds with sufficient spacing As volume increases, speed decreases as vehicle headways decrease If AVs could operate at high speed with low headways, huge potential capacity increases

7 IS THIS OUR FUTURE?

8 Changes in Demand & Opportunity Will new segments of the population become drivers?

9 Changes in Car Ownership Model What if this increasingly became this

10 Potential to Change the Car Ownership Paradigm

11 Coupling of AV and 11 Electrification

12 Ford plans to have a Level 4 vehicle in 2021, no gas pedal, no steering wheel - Former Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields Bosch said it saw level three vehicles being released at the end of the decade, and level four driving not before Reuters We believe we have the chance to make level three, level four and level five doable [in 2021] - BMW

13 Levels of Automation

14 Is this a connected car? Source: Google

15 AV CV+1

16 What is connected? Cooperative communications systems Linking vehicles together, to the roadside, and to the cloud Interoperable systems that work across all equipment and manufacturers

17 CV and AV on a collision course

18 Role of CV in the AV Space AV sees with sensors and must interpret environment Sensors detect green indication, computer knows green means GO No context beyond what human driver can see

19 Role of CV in the AV Space In a CV environment, the other vehicles and the traffic signal are talking to the AV: Phase state Time to phase change Real-time optimal progression speed Real-time route guidance based on signal delay Identification of hazards out of the view of sensor systems

20 What is happening in reality today?

21 Connected Vehicle Pilot Deployments Four major Federal connected vehicle pilot programs underway: Ann Arbor Connected Vehicle Test Environment (AACVTE) Tampa (THEA) Pilot Wyoming/ICF Pilot New York City Pilot Many other smaller Federal, State and Local deployments

22 Smart Columbus Initiative Extensive connected traffic signal system to support enhanced bus rapid transit Electrified Automated Vehicle (EAV) to serve as circulator for Easton commercial district Transit kiosks to link community to technology and ondemand services

23 Uber Driverless Testing, Pittsburgh Pilot of driverless vehicles with actual customers Back-up driver and researcher in vehicle at all times

24 Automated Shuttles Source: University of Michigan

25 Federally Designated AV Proving Grounds Pittsburgh/PTI Texas AV Proving Ground Partnership U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center American Center for Mobility GoMentum Station SANDAG Iowa City ADG U. of Wisconsin Central Florida AV Partners North Carolina Turnpike

26 Truck Platooning Source: Peloton

27 Should we believe the hype?

28 AUTOMATED TAXIS SAID TO PROVIDE AFFORDABLE TRANSPORT FOR ALL EXTRA! EXTRA! DRIVERLESS CARS SIGNAL THE DEATH OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION AUTONOMOUS CARS DECLARED SOLUTION TO ALL MOBILITY PROBLEMS

29 S O S hiny bject yndrome

30 It s not just about the technology Initial AV Cost? Insurance Industry Disruption? Legal Liability? Federal and State Regulation? Auto Industry Disruption? Revenue Impacts? Acceptance of Computer Driver?

31 Public Acceptance 40, Traffic Fatalities 14% Increase from 2014 If C/AV technology reduced that to 35,000 fatalities in the future 5,000 Lives Saved? OR 35,000 Lives Taken by Flawed Computers?

32 Mobility as a Service Paradigm Enabled Thru Automation Distributed Shared Mobility Model

33 Mobility as a Service Paradigm Enabled Thru Automation Efficiency is most unresolved Distributed Shared Mobility Model

34 Tremendous efficiency 34 opportunities for freeways

35 35 but this is MUCH harder

36 Still living in a 9-5 society

37 Travel Demand Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions) 3,500,000 VMT Growth Rate: 1.6% Population Growth Rate: 0.8% 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,

38 AV Changes in Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) When driving time is regained, how far might you ride in your car to work?

39 Physical Street Space X = AV

40 =

41 Salesforce Tower, Indianapolis 49 Stories 905,000 Square Feet As many as 5,000 daily occupants

42 What happens at 5:00pm when 5,000 people catch their driverless taxi?

43 43 How does new mobility protect options for the elderly, disabled and economically disadvantaged? Source: The Daily Beast

44 Do not oversimplify the view of the future

45 Technology + New Mobility Trends = Opportunities for all Shared Transportation Providers

46 Public/Campus Transportation New opportunities with on-demand services Right-sizing service with more flexible service offerings Public-Private Partnerships (P3) to handle high cost/ low demand trips (late night, low density, etc.)

47 Elderly Mobility and Paratransit On-demand driverless transportation for those physically able Freeing up drivers to serve in a support capacity to passengers for assisted transportation

48 Downtown Parking Transition Parking for shared fleets, electrification Shuttling/transit to 48 remote staging? Increased demand for high-capacity service with more development?

49 Airport Airside/ Landside Transportation 49 Automation of interterminal shuttles Shuttling to remote staging for driverless vehicle services?

50 What can you do to prepare? Consider how your business model and customer needs may change Look for opportunities to trial new technology Embrace shift towards electrification Educate both employees and customers

51 Thank You Scott Shogan, P.E., PTOE Connected/Automated Vehicle Market Leader, US Advisory Services wsp.com