Achieving Complete Vehicle Autonomy - Getting to Level 5?

Transcription

1 Achieving Complete Vehicle Autonomy - Getting to Level 5? MassDOT 2017 Innovation & Technology Transfer Exchange Conference March The National Transportation Systems Center U.S. Department of Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation

2 Disclaimer Statements made during this presentation are opinions of the speaker and do not represent official positions of the U.S. Department of Transportation. 2

3 Gartner's Technology Hype Cycle 3

4 AVs Hit Peak Hype in 2015 and Now Seem Further From Reality Source: Gartner August 2015 and August

5 The Future Has Not Changed in 60 Years

6 Automation Project Announcements and Launches Shuttles, buses, pod- cars, first/last mile service, circulators, automated taxis CityMobil GM EN- V (YTD) CityMobil2 ARIBO Sentosa GATEway Project SMOOTH (OSU) A- Taxi MN AV Task Force Sion Bus Delphi Lyft nutonomy WEpods GoMentum Station Bishop Ranch Robot Taxi Auto Rider (Singapore) Uber Novus Drive Optimus Ride Future Bus (Daimler) Local Motors (Multiple) Zoox Navya (Multiple) EasyMile (Multiple) Beverly Hills 2getthere Asia Volgabus MatrЁshka Deutsche Bahn Babcock Ranch SNUber Cumulative Announced/Launched Projects 1/2005-8/2016 (N=40) 6

7 What s Ahead? q Newspaper headlines are intentionally fantastic q Industry announcements are purposefully competitive q Technical research is hard to interpret q Where do mobility trends intersect with automated vehicles? q Will automated vehicles Improve safety? Improve personal mobility? Increase congestion? Create sprawl? Resist cyberattack? Become a taxi service? Eliminate the need for traffic signals and signs? Deliver packages? Reduce demand for driver licenses? Cause ruts in the road surface? Make ethical choices? Put people out of jobs? Pick up the trash? 7

8 Vehicle Longevity/Fleet Turnover Expected Survival Rate of Model Year 2017 Vehicles 100% 90% Passenger Cars Light Trucks PERCENT OF VEHICLES REMAINING IN FLEET 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% YEAR Data Source: Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: Corporate Average Fuel Economy for MY MY 2025 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks; Office of Regulatory Analysis and Evaluation, National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA, August

9 Different Approaches to Automation SAE Automation Level 5 Level of Automation Technology Disruptors Traditional Automotive Industry Geographic Extent All Roads 9

10 Automated Vehicle Industry Announcements Source: MojoMotors,

11 Automated Vehicle Projections The Self Driving Vehicle Revolution An illustration of potential growth Source: McKinsey& Company (left) and MarketWatch Research, SAE International (Right) 11

12 Automated Vehicle Projections Source: Philip Ross

13 An Evolving Market OEMS (AUTO MANUFACTURERS Automobiles Cars Trucks Buses TECHNOLOGY PROVIDERS Suppliers (Data, Sensors, and Systems) Software (e.g., OC, user interface) Data (e.g., maps) HW (e.g., components, sensors, batteries) Infrastructure OPERATORS / SERVICE PROVIDERS Applications and Services Mobility services / ridesharing Navigation Other (e.g., rentals, parking, maintenance, Entertainment) Financing (insurance and leasing) Source: Somasegar and Li (Madrona Venture Group) February

14 What Are the Traditional Vehicle Manufacturers Doing? q Daimler (Mercedes- Benz) Concepts Future Truck 2025 and Future Bus with CityPilot q FCA (Chrysler) Partnership with Waymo to test automated Pacifica minivans q Ford Investing $1 billion over five years in Argo AI q General Motors Partnership with Lyft to test automated Chevrolet Bolt q Volvo Partnership with Uber to use 100 Volvo XC90s to provide service in Pittsburgh q Tesla All new Tesla vehicles will have hardware installed to enable SAE Level 5 Automation Discussed small automated buses in its Master Plan: Part Deux q Overall Companies are adopting ADAS and SAE Level 1-2 automation features on their vehicles All or nearly all automakers are developing and testing automated vehicles Many are partnering with suppliers or acquiring the technology through investments 14

15 A Focus on Partnerships Source: Somasegar and Li (Madrona Venture Group) February

16 Taxis, TNCs, and Personal Vehicles Automation for Different Modes Transit Buses Small, Low-speed Shuttles Commercial Vehicles 16