AUTONOMY AND SMART URBAN MOBILITY

Transcription

1 AUTONOMY AND SMART URBAN MOBILITY November 15, 2017 Emilio Frazzoli Professor of Dynamic Systems and Control, ETH Zürich Co-Founder and CTO

2 Why Self-driving Vehicles?

3 A financial perspective on personal mobility (US Market) Safety: Cost of a statistical life : $9.1M 2014 NHTSA report: - Economic cost of road accidents: ~ $277B/year. - Societal harm of road accidents: ~ $594B/year Cost of congestion: Texas Transportation Institute, 2012: ~ $100B/year Health costs of congestion: Harvard School of Public Health, 2010: ~ $50B/year Increased productivity/leisure: Estimate $1.2T/year Car sharing: Assuming a sharing factor of 4, estimate $1.8T/year of benefits to individuals. Other studies [Burns et al., 13, Fagnant, Kockelman 14] suggest higher sharing factors, up to ~10. Sharing Productivity Safety (Economic Cost) Safety (Societal Harm) Congestion Health

4 (Autonomous) Mobility on Demand in Singapore Time of day Red dot: empty car Blue dot: passenger (in car/in queue) - Optimal algorithms for fleet management, - Minimize operational cost with quality of service constraints

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6 IMPACT OF AUTONOMOUS URBAN TRANSPORTATION IN SINGAPORE VIDEO ~800,000 passenger vehicles! ~300,000 shared autonomous vehicles 6 K. Spieser, K. Treleaven, R. Zhang, E. Frazzoli, D. Morton, and M. Pavone. Toward a systematic approach to the design and evaluation of automated MoD systems: a case study in Singapore. In S. Beiker, editor, Road Vehicle Automation, Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer, 2014.

7 HOW MUCH WOULD IT COST? 100% Notes Unit Margin (17%) Unit Margin (46%) Increase margin supports fixed operating cost and profit 75% Insurance (7%) Fuel (13%) Insurance cost lower due to safer driving, strong documentation for events that do occur 50% Main. (5%) Vehicle (8%) Insurance(4%) Fuel (10%) Main. (7%) Fuel cost decreased due to usage of electric cars and more efficient operation Maintenance cost increased due to higher safety standards, additional cost of maintaining autonomous hardware 25% Labor (50%) Vehicle (23%) Vehicle cost higher due to sensors, newer cars and assumed shorter life (conservative) 0% Current taxi Labor (10%) Estimated AV taxi Labor cost reduced but not eliminated. Assume teleoperation supervision (10 cars to one operator) and cleaning / monitoring of vehicles 7 Source: Various studies of taxi cost profile

8 IMPACT ON THE LABOR MARKET Traditional On-Demand Mobility requires one out of 7 people to be a driver - Impact mainly on increased supply of mobility rather than job loss - Cost reduction may be an issue, may be balanced by added value in service 8

9 WHEN WILL AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ARRIVE? Level 4/5 Autonomous Vehicle Penetration Mobility fleets 100% 80% 60% % of US miles by autonomous vehicles % of all vehicles are autonomous Traffic fatalities reduced by 90% Cities restrict human driving 2 Personally owned vehicles 40% 20% 0% 2017 Pilots in: Singapore, Boston, Phoenix, San Francisco, Pittsburgh cities with large AV fleets Level 4: Highway 1 Slow increase as individuals purchase new self-driving cars Legend Personally owned vehicles Mobility fleets Sources: 1 Nissan, Toyota, Ford, BMW etc.; 2 nutonomy estimates; 3 BCG; 4 IEEE; 5 McKinsey

10 10 CURRENT STATUS: A TYPICAL DAY IN SINGAPORE

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12 OUR MISSION To radically improve the safety, efficiency, and accessibility of transportation in cities worldwide 12

13 Realizing the value of self-driving cars Safety: Severe human-factors limitations to safety of systems with humans in/on the loop. it may be impossible to demonstrate the reliability of high-performing autonomous vehicles (i.e., ones with failure rates comparable to or better than human failure rates) to any reasonable degree of precision. RAND Co Time value of driving Needs Level 4: value mostly to individuals Car sharing Needs Level 4: societal impact in addition to individual convenience Level 4 automation ( Full Autonomy ) is essential to capture the benefits of self-driving cars The game-changing feature of AVs is their ability to drive themselves with nobody on board.

14 Paths to Level 4 Level of Automation Today ~2030 Today Prototype/closed course Fleet, limited geography Scale / Scope Mass deployment, everywhere

15 Product vs. Service AVs as a consumer product AVs as a service (MaaS) Scope Where and when the AV capabilities must function Financials Cost constraints Infrastructure Maps, dealers, service Everywhere, all the time Comparable to the cost of the vehicle and/or driver s time. PV of the driver s time: ~23,000 USD for a 10-year lifetime Global scale, immediately Geo-, time-, weather-fenced operation Comparable to the cost of hiring a driver (crew) > 100,000 USD per year Scale (sub)linearly with the user base Servicing and Maintenance Most high-tech sensors etc. not user serviceable yet Servicing/maintenance crews already on roster.