The Evolution of Transportation Technology in an Increasingly Smart Society. Presented by: Matthew J. Schiemer, PE September 12, 2017

Transcription

1 The Evolution of Transportation Technology in an Increasingly Smart Society Presented by: Matthew J. Schiemer, PE September 12, 2017

2 Traffic Signal Systems 1914 to Present First electric traffic signal in USA in 1914 (Cleveland, Ohio)

3 Traffic Signal Systems 1914 to Present Currently approximately 320,000 traffic signals in USA

4 Traffic Signal Systems 1914 to Present Approximately 60% interconnected and 40% stand-alone

5 Traffic Signal Systems 1914 to Present Advances in traffic signal controllers and several specific applications Audi s time to green feature

6 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present First asphalt road in USA 1870 Newark, NJ First concrete road in USA Ohio

7 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present Pennsylvania Turnpike: First limited access highway

8 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present 1940s to 1980s: Cash Toll Booths

9 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present 1990s to early 2000s: Electronic Toll Collection at Existing Toll Booths

10 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present Early 2000s to Present: Moving toward AET / Free-flow Tolling

11 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present Current: Managed Lanes / HOT Lanes / Express Lanes / Dynamic Tolling

12 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present 1990s to Present: Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

13 Technology on Highways 1940 to Present Approximately 2010 to Present: - Connected/Automated Vehicle planning & pilots - Many advances and trends in the private sector (non-agency) impacting transportation - Smartphone and in-vehicle GPS with real-time traffic and detour routing (Google Maps, Waze, INRIX, etc.) - Ridesharing: Uber & Lyft - Carsharing: ZipCar & Car2Go - Automobile advances: blind spot alerts, braking alerts, OnStar, lane departure alerts, Tesla s partial autonomy, Hyundai bluelink,etc. - Electric vehicles (Tesla s $35,000 Model 3)

14 Transportation Technology What s Next? Traffic Signal Systems More advanced controllers, adaptive, timing, etc. More interconnection of signals Increased use of wireless connections Connected & Autonomous Vehicles Vehicle to signal system connections (cabinet & direct to central system) Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G expands the possibilities

15 Transportation Technology What s Next? Highways More toll roads & AET conversions Eventually no tolling infrastructure along the roadway (Vehicle to Cloud, IoT, 5G) More Express/HOT/Managed Lanes Eventually these lanes could serve CV/AV pilots Fewer ITS Deployments in the Mid- to Long-Term More CCTV cameras But.fewer traffic flow detectors, HAR, DMS, etc. due to private sector advancements Real-time Traffic, Dynamic Routing and Predictive Navigation Google Maps, Waze, INRIX, etc. will continue to improve and expand features

16 Transportation Technology What s Next? Highways (cont d) Connected & Autonomous Vehicles More automobile advances (blind spot alerts, braking alerts, OnStar systems, lane departure alerts, navigation, Tesla-style partial autonomy, Hyundai bluelink, etc.) Vehicle to roadside equipment may be less than anticipated, or even leapfrogged Vehicle to Cloud connections will likely dominate (IoT and 5G) Partially Autonomous Vehicles (SAE Levels 1-4) already under way, and will continue to evolve over the next few decades Fully Autonomous Vehicles (SAE Level 5) likely decades away, or are they?

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18 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball Where is Demand (VMT) Going? The decade of per-capita VMT decline is over ( ). VMT is back to normal. Or is it? VMT Drivers: Gasoline prices, electric vehicle advancements, millennials lifestyle, aging boomers, etc

19 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball What are millennials going to do as they get older??

20 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball What will the Amazon Effect mean for demand? More online shopping = fewer trips to the store But more FedEx/UPS vehicles on the road How will this play out, and what will be the impacts?

21 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball What about drones? Could Amazon or FedEx/UPS deliver more by drones than by truck? What would that do to truck traffic? What about drones for survey, design, construction, inspection, and incident management? Any other potential transportation-related applications come to mind?

22 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball What can we learn from the Netflix experience?

23 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball When will the fleet be 30% autonomous? How about 100% What will the impacts be? Add in 14 & 15 year-olds, and year-olds Incentivize mega-commutes and more suburban sprawl Cars circulating or going home rather than paying for parking (paid parking could go away) Sending your car on errands, pick up food Partial autonomy already exists Full autonomy likely decades away What do we need to do to prepare? Roadside hardware, software & comms? New types of pavement markings & signs? Nothing at all?

24 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball Traditional Environment/Partners - FHWA - State DOTs - Toll Agencies - Cities - Counties - MPOs - Universities - Consultants, Contractors, Integrators & Equipment Vendors (contracted and directed by the DOT/Agency) We are very accustomed to the owner (DOT/Toll Agency) being in control.

25 Food for Thought and the Crystal Ball Future Environment/Partners - FHWA - State DOTs - Toll Agencies - Cities - Counties + - MPOs - Universities - Consultants - Contractors - Integrators - Equipment Vendors Owners will no longer have nearly as much as control over factors impacting the operation of their facilities. This presents challenges, but also great opportunities.

26 Discussion & Collaboration Matthew J. Schiemer, PE Vice President Transportation Operations Gannett Fleming, Inc Research Blvd., Suite 350 Austin, TX (512)