Feasibility Update. RMRA Feasibility Study Steering Committee. Study Work Schedule: Tasks 1 thru February 27, 2009.

Transcription

1 Presentation To RMRA Feasibility Study Steering Committee Feasibility Update February 7, 9 TEMS, Inc. / Quandel Consultants, LLC 1 Study Work Schedule: Tasks 1 thru 4.4.

2 Study Work Schedule: Tasks 4.5 thru February Public Involvement Update Finalized and attained approval on stakeholder blast Distributed on /5 to nearly 1, contacts Community Partnership Program Materials Newsletter Article Station Map Alternatives Fact Sheet Distributed Community Partnership Program Materials to 1+ organizations on /5 Continued coordination w/ I-7 Coalition and other studies (e.g. Gaming Area EIS) 4

3 Engineering Segments: Unconstrained Rail Network 5 Engineering Segments: Constrained Rail and Maglev Network 6

4 Operations: I-5 I South Joint Line Rail Corridor Consists of two tracks former DRGW (UP) and ATSF (BNSF) alignment Proposing to undo USRA-era mix and match that has been in place since 1918 This becomes the starting point for a further program of curve easements Almost completely separate freight from passenger operations DRGW ATSF DRGW Denver ATSF Sedalia DRGW Spruce ATSF North Colorado Springs Passenger Alignment Freight Alignment Buttes to Fountain section, issue of which track segment to use DRGW ATSF ATSF DRGW South Colorado Springs DRGW Buttes DRGW Pueblo 7 Joint Line: Nixon Power Plant Former ATSF Alignment paralleling I-5I 8

5 Joint Line and Spanish Peak Lines Joint Line, Littleton to Pueblo With RC - ATSF alignment used for passengers; DRGW for freight. Equip DRGW with bi-directional Traffic Control and mile passing sidings at 1 mile intervals (same as parallel RC line freight configuration.) Without RC Fully replace the ATSF track by double tracking the DRGW alignment for freight with universal crossovers every 8-1 miles (except possibly from Palmer Lake to Colorado Springs where the passenger system builds it own track on the abandoned ATSF grade.) Spanish Peaks Line, Pueblo to Trinidad With RC Spanish Peaks line will lose most of its freight traffic (Empty coal trains) as a result of RC diversion. Upgrade one of the two tracks from Pueblo to Walsenburg to 11-mph, and single track from Walsenburg to Trinidad to best available speed based on curvature. Without RC Upgrade one of the two tracks Pueblo to Walsenburg to 11-mph and co-mingle with freight (empty coal trains) at 79-mph from Walsenburg to Trinidad. 9 Joint Line: Littleton to DUS The Trench Crestline Ave Prop Freight Prop Psgr South Suburban Sta Shift LRT west onto siding to make Room for 4 th Trk KEY W/ RC W/O RC In these areas, some freight tracks on 14 center to Light Rail. Shift freight track to make room and widen track centers to LRT 1

6 Joint Line Bridges over C-47C 11 Rail Tracks Converging South of LRT 1

7 End of LRT South of Mineral Station 13 Littleton Trench 14

8 LRT Flyover Looking South 15 Four Tracks South of LRT Flyover Four Tracks Here already! 16

9 Freight on 14 Center to LRT Track 17 Parked Freights at Mississippi Ave Trains awaiting Crew Change, also showing room to add track on bridgeb 18

10 View South of CML at Curtis Street This area will be reconfigured by RTD West Light Rail 19 Arriving DUS on Joint Line

11 Alternative Denver Station Sites To Golden/I-7 via Arvada To DIA via Brush Line To DIA via Pullman Yard BROADWAY SITE 16 th Street SITE DUS Broadway Site provides through movement from DIA to Golden Line (Via Arvada) but requires movement through Pullman Yard as well as new track connections at Prospect Jct. To Pueblo and I-7 via US-6 1 Joint Line and CML Joint Line and CML, Denver to Littleton With RC - Detailed capacity simulation will be required to finalize freight requirements and ultimately determine the necessity of capital improvements through the area: - Tentatively, plan to add a track for bypassing the freight train staging area between South Denver and Englewood. The passenger track would buffer between the freight and LRT tracks and would extend 9 miles, all the way from the LRT flyover to DUS. Without RC In addition to above improvements: - Maximally extend the length of the freight train staging area to the north end of the Littleton trench by adding switches at Crestline Avenue. Adding a fourth track here may require shifting the LRT tracks onto the Electron Lead to make room. - Additionally, based on the result of the line capacity simulation, if necessary to mitigate freight capacity needs, construct an aerial rail structure to carry the passenger line through. (An alternative may be either to tunnel, or else to displace LRT out of the trench to surface running.)

12 Base Rail Route-79mph/15mph 79-mph 11-mph 15-mph 3 Base Rail Route-mph/3mph 15-mph 15-mph 3-mph 4

13 Speed/Frequency Ridership Scenarios for Typical High Speed Corridors Trains / day mph mph 15 mph mph 3 mph 5 Market Analysis: Winter Surveys Goals Three Distinct Survey Types Abstract Mode surveys quantify how much travelers value time (VOT) Transfer surveys evaluate penalty associated with changing trains/modes Bias surveys evaluate modal bias Air vs. Rail and Auto vs. Rail Approach Quota Surveys with individual Sample Frame Targets by Sub-Group (e.g. Trip Length, Mode, Trip Purpose). Survey Implementation Fall Survey was targeted Primarily at Colorado Resident and non-seasonal tourism. Winter Survey (completed) focused on Resort tourism: - DIA Survey of Colorado intra-state flights (VOT, Bias and Transfer survey versions) - Ski Resort surveys at Copper Mountain and Vail (VOT, Bias and Transfer survey versions) - Casino surveys at Central City (VOT version only) 6

14 Fall and Winter Survey Objectives Location Fall Winter Denver Int l Airport Buses (RTD/FRE/Greyhound) Ski Resorts Gaming Resorts Amtrak DMV 7 Final Survey Locations and Dates SURVEY DATES SUMMER WINTER BOTH 8

15 Winter Survey Actual Deployment DIA Airport Survey Vail Resorts Pilot Central City Gaming Survey Vail and Copper Mountain Survey Team Actual Deployment Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed /1 /13 /14 /15 /16 /17 /18 Survey Tallies Location Results Fall Survey...,88 Winter DIA 34 Central City 74 Ski Resorts 499 Subtotal 915 TOTAL 3,73 9 Differences in Fall vs. Winter Surveys Besides the three different survey versions administered (VOT, Bias, Transfer) the target populations were different: DIA Surveys - The Fall DIA Survey targeted local Colorado Residents and screened out connecting passengers. - The Winter DIA Survey targeted all resort travelers on intrastate flights, including both local and connecting passengers. Urban and Resort Surveys - The Fall Surveys at DMV, Rail and Bus stations targeted local Colorado Residents. - The Winter resort surveys targeted both Day Trip and Destination resort travelers. 3

16 Winter Resort Survey Questionnaire Classification Questions on Left Tradeoff Questions on Right 31 Winter Survey Anecdotes Flier on Aspen air connection Felt that flying to Aspen was cheaper than renting a car for 1 days, and not needing the car Copper Mountain destination traveler Staying in a time-share at Silverthorne, needs a car to get to and from the house. Wanted to know about availability of local rental cars at the train station Day tripper on Season Pass Not particularly time sensitive, since they have a season pass to the ski slopes and don t care if they have all day on the slopes. Central City casino visitor Comes to gamble several times a week; enjoys the scenery and considers the ride up to be a part of the outing. 3

17 Demand Update: COMPASS Model Structure Four-Mode Four-Mode Base Base Year Year Transport Transport Socio- Socio- Network Network Economics Economics Stated Stated Preference Preference Demand Demand Trip Trip Model Model Base Base Year Year Survey Survey Matrices Matrices Calibration Calibration Matrix Matrix Origin- Origin- Destination Destination Data Data Economic Economic Scenarios Scenarios Rail Rail Strategies Strategies Travel Travel Demand Demand Model Model Run Run Forecast Forecast Year Year Trip Trip Matrices Matrices Revenue Revenue Analysis Analysis Financial Financial Analysis Analysis User User Benefit Benefit Analysis Analysis Economic Economic Rent Rent Analysis Analysis 33 Zone System 34

18 Colorado Economic Scenarios: State Demography Office & TEMS High, Central and Low Case Population Growth High Case Central Case (SDO, BEA and MPOs combined) Low Case (BEA) Average Annual Growth Rates (%): Millions High-Low Range - 9% Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Central and Low Cases Real Average Household Income Growth Thousands 7$ Average Annual Growth Rates (%): 1. Low Case Central Case High Case

19 Colorado Economic Scenarios: High, Central and Low Case Employment Growth Average Annual Growth Rates (%): Millions Central Case (SDO, BEA and MPOs combined) Low Case (SDO and BEA) High Case Base Highway Network 38

20 Future Rail Network 39 Generalized Cost Components Time Costs Reliability Schedule Public Modes In-vehicle Time Access/Egress Time Number of Interchanges Connection Wait Times Terminal Wait Times Fare Access/Egress Costs On Time Performance Frequency of Service Convenience of Times Travel Time Auto Operating Costs Tolls Parking (all divided by occupancy) 4

21 VOT and VOF are needed to define Travel Utility Equation for the Networks U ijp = ƒ(gcijp) Where GC ijp = Generalized cost of travel between zones i and j for purpose p GC ijmp = TT ijm + TC ijmp VOF mp x OH + VOT mp VOT mp x F ijm Where TT ijm = Travel time between zones i and j for mode m (in-vehicle time + waiting time + delay time + connect time + access/egress time + interchange penalty), with waiting, delay, connect and access/egress time multiplied by two to account for the additional disutility felt by travelers for these activities TC ijmp = Travel cost between zones i and j for mode m and purpose p (fare + access/egress cost for public modes, operating costs for auto) VOT mp = Value of Time for mode m and purpose p VOF mp = Value of Frequency for mode m and purpose p F ijm = Frequency in departures per week between zones i and j for mode m OH = Operating hours per week 41 Values of Time $/hr Modes Trip Purposes Business Commuter Tourist Other Transit $13. $1.9 $11.39 $11.6 Rail $16.7 $17.5 $17.65 $15.9 Auto $18.91 $18.95 $18.86 $17.69 Air $48.69 $35.73 $33.34 $

22 Coverage of Existing Colorado Data Intercity Trips (greater than 55 miles) 1 Destination Origination 159 Data Available Data Unavailable 178 Data Unavailable Total Existing Data Percentage Covered Zones % Population 4.9 Million 4.6 Million 93.7% Trips per year 1 Million 98 Million 95.5% 43 Base Year Trip Summary Intercity Trips (greater than 55 miles) Mode Car Bus Air Rail Trips 1,,,96, 15,53 831,98 Market Share 96.1%.84%.14%.8% 44

23 Preliminary Base Year Rail Ridership 45 3, Railroad Station Traffic: Passenger Volumes (trips greater than 55 miles) 5, Amtrak Service: trains per day, Station Pas s enger Volume s 15, 1, 5, DIA Denver CBD North Suburban South Suburban Colorado Springs North Front Range Black Hawk Golden Breckenridge Pueblo Vail As pe n FortCollins Copper MT. Avon Ke ystone Steamboat Springs Grand Jct. Cheyenne, WY Monument Glenwood Springs Castle Rock Founta in Trinidad Georgetown Eagle (Airport) Walsenburg Gypsum Rifle Mid Valley Idaho Springs Craig Hayden Airport Parachute Phippsburg Stations 46

24 Total Demand α β 1 β R Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business Commuter Tourist Other where U U U U Ln ( Trip) α + β Ln( SE + β Total Total Total Total = 1 ) U Total * U.397* Auto ( Public GC = Ln e + e ) for Business * U.44539* Auto ( Public GC = Ln e + e ) for Commuter * U.14755* Auto ( Public GC = Ln e + e ) for Tourist * U.7576* Auto ( Public GC = Ln e + e ) for Other 47 Mode Split Base Hierarchy: Slow Speed Total Demand Public Modes Auto Mode Air Mode Surface Modes Rail Mode Bus Mode 48

25 Rail Mode vs Bus Mode Level 1 α β 1 β R Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business Commuter Tourist Other Ln ( P / P ) β GC Rail Bus = α + β1 GC Rail Bus 49 Surface Modes vs Air Mode Level α β 1 β R Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business Commuter Tourist Other where Ln ( P / P ) β GC U U U U Surface Surface Surface Surface Surface Air = α + β1 U Surface * GC.14473* Bus ( Rail GC = Ln e + e ) for Business * GC.8183* Bus ( Rail GC = Ln e + e ) for Commuter * GC.1347* Bus ( Rail GC = Ln e + e ) for Tourist * GC.3674* Bus ( Rail GC = Ln e + e ) for Other Air 5

26 Public Modes vs Auto Mode Level 3 α β 1 β R Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Coef t Stat Business Commuter Tourist Other where Ln ( P / P ) β GC U U U U Public Public Public Public Public Auto = α + β1 U Public * U Surface GC Air Auto.16375* = Ln( e + e ) for Business * U Surface GCAir.8473* = Ln( e + e ) for Commuter * U Surface GCAir.1385* = Ln( e + e ) for Tourist * U Surface GC Air.4794* = Ln( e + e ) for Other 51 Transport Strategies Highway I-7 PEIS: No Action/Collaborative Recommendations I-5 N PEIS: No Action I-5 S PEIS: No Action Other Public Modes Air System grows with traffic Fares constant in real terms Bus System grows with traffic Fares constant in real terms Schedule impacted by congestion 5

27 U.S. Crude Oil Composite Acquisition Cost by Refiners Historic Data and the Forecasts 8$ per Barrel Low Case Central Case High Case Year Source: Energy Information Administration and TEMS, Inc. 53 U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices as a Function of Crude Oil Prices (1993 8) 4 Gasoline Price (8 Cents per Gallon) y =.598x R =.979 Each $38 increase in Crude Oil = $1 on gas Crude Oil Composite Acquisition Cost (8 $ per Barrel) Source: TEMS, Inc and Energy Information Administration. 54

28 U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices - Historic Data and the Forecasts 6 5 8$ per Gallon Low Case Central Case High Case Year Source: TEMS, Inc and Energy Information Administration. 55 Highway Congestion: I-7 Segments (I-7 PEIS) 56

29 I-7 AADT and Segment Locations Seg 1 Seg 6 Seg 1 Source: CDOT, 57 I-7 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 1 Eastbound and Westbound Weekday Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes EB Weekday_Seg Hours of Day Capacity WB Weekday_Seg Hours of Day Capacity 58

30 I-7 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 1 Eastbound and Westbound Weekend Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes EB Weekend_Seg Hours of Day Capacity WB Weekend_Seg Hours of Day Capacity 59 I-7 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 6 Eastbound and Westbound Weekday Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes EB Weekday_Seg Hours of Day Capacity WB Weekday_Seg Hours of Day Capacity 6

31 I-7 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 6 Eastbound and Westbound Weekend Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes EB Weekend_Seg Hours of Day Capacity WB Weekend_Seg Hours of Day Capacity 61 I-7 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 1 Eastbound and Westbound Typical Day Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes EB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity WB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity 6

32 I-7 Hours of Congestion: Segments 1 thru 1 Eastbound and Westbound Weekday Hours Hours EB We ek day Years Segments on I 7 WB Weekday Years Segm ents on I 7 63 I-7 Hours of Congestion: Segments 1 thru 1 Eastbound and Westbound Weekend Hours Hours EB Weekend Years Segments on I 7 WB Weekend Years Segments on I 7 64

33 I-5 AADT and Segment Locations Seg 1: Castle Rock Seg : Johnstown Source: CDOT, 65 I-5 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment 1 Northbound and Southbound Typical Day Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes NB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity SB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity 66

34 I-5 Hourly Traffic Volumes: Segment Northbound and Southbound Typical Day Traffic Volumes Traffic Volumes NB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity SB _Seg Hours of Day Capacity 67 I-5 Hours of Congestion: Segments 1 and Northbound and Southbound Typical Day Hours Hours Northbound Segm ents on I 5 Southbound Years 5 Years Segments on I 5 68

35 Thank You. 69