HRTPO Strategic Campaign. Passenger Rail. Agenda Item #11. Presentation To. May 19, Presentation By

Transcription

1 Presentation To HRTPO Board Meeting Agenda Item #11 HRTPO Strategic Campaign and Vision Plan for Passenger Rail Presentation By May 19, 2010 Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

2 Study Timeline PHASE 1: Preliminary Vision Plan Tasks Step 1. Study Databank Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Task 1 Study Design Task 2 Data Assembly Market Database Stated Preference Survey Sensitivity Data Engineering Database Technology Database Step 2. Service Scenarios Task 3 Service Scenarios Step 3. Interactive Analysis Task 4 Interactive Analysis Demand Analysis Sensitivy and Risk Analysis Rail Service Analysis Step 4. System Forecasts and Outputs Task 5 Ridership and Revenue Forecasts Task 6 Operating and Capital Costs Task 7 Financial and Economic Feasibility Analysis Financial Analysis Economic Analysis of User / Non-User Benefits Step 5. Institutional and Financing Framework Task 8 Financing and Funding Arrangements Task 9 Institutional Framework Task 10 Allocation of Costs and Revenues Step 6. Vision Plan Task 11 Implementation Plan Task 12 Preliminary Vision Plan Task 13 Final Vision Plan MEETINGS PRESENTATIONS MONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS 1

3 Task 1: Project Management Continued development of project work plan Meeting with DRPT to agree project development steps Meeting with NS and CSX to discuss project development steps 2

4 Task 2: Data Assembly Database development is being finalized Market Database Finalize zone system Finalize update of DEIS O/D data Finalize Socioeconomic profiles for including employment, income, and population Operating Database Assessment of appropriate technology for each development step Developing speed profiles for technology options 79, 90, 110, 150-mph Prepare preliminary timetables Engineering Database Review of routes to provide an understanding of existing conditions Preparation of unit costs to 2010 base Operating unit costs in preparation 3

5 Task 3: Development Steps The potential Development Steps have been presented to DRPT, NS and CSX. Await comments from CSX. Steps Step 1 Route Max Speed No. of Trains I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Infrastructure Shared Track Schedule Enhancement Shared Track NS Station Main Street Newport News (existing) S tap le s M ill O n ly Norfolk Step 2 (D EIS Alt 1) Main Street I-64/ CSXT 79 mp h 3 Shared Track Newp ort News (existing) Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79 mph 4-6 Shared Track Main Street I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Step 3 Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track V Line Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Main Street Bowers Hill I-64/CSXT 110 m ph 6-9 Dedicated Track Step 4 Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 150 mph Dedicated Electric Track V Line Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Main Street Bowers Hill 4

6 Task 4: Interactive Analysis This work in process and will be completed by the end of May. Existing Databases Capital Costs Operating Costs Market Engineering Operations Financial Economic Engineering Operating Analysis Plan Optional as Required Interactive Analysis Ridership & Revenue Financial & Economic Analysis Report Capacity Analysis Train Routes and Speed Scenario Formulation Train Technology and Service Levels Fares, Stations, and Quality of Service 5

7 Task 5: Ridership and Revenue The Preliminary Demand forecasting model has been calibrated Preliminary forecasts have been developed 6

8 Hampton Roads Zone System 7

9 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Socioeconomic Projections (cont.) Forecasts by Region: Population Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates: 1.34% 081% 0.81% 50% 40% 1.26% 30% 0.79% 20% 10% Per Capita Income Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates: 1.12% 1.03% 0.99% 0.95% 0% % % 50% Employment Forecast Average Annual Growth Rates: 1.32% I64/CSXT 40% 30% 20% 10% 064% 0.64% 0.57% 1.14% Route 460/Norfolk Southern lions Mil Richmond Area 0% Petersburg Area 8

10 Network Rail (Base) Boston New York Washington Richmond Newport News Norfolk Charlotte 9

11 Origin-Destination Data Auto OD Table Hampton Roads Richmond- Petersburg Other Virginia North Carolina Washington DC-Maryland Northeast Corridor Hampton Roads Richmond- Petersburg Other Virginia OD Data Available OD Data Unavailable North Carolina Washington DC-Maryland OD Data Irrelevant Northeast Corridor 10

12 Hampton Roads/Richmond/Washington DC Corridor Preliminary 2025 Ridership Forecast (millions) Trains 8~9 Trains 14~18 Trains 20~25 25 Trains Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Estimated Extra Ridership with Complete OD Data Preliminary Ridership Forecast 11

13 Hampton Roads/Richmond/Washington DC Corridor Preliminary 2025 Revenue Forecast (millions) Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Estimated t Extra Revenue with Complete OD Data Preliminary Revenue Forecast 12

14 Model Validation: Comparison of Washington Lynchburg 1995 Forecast with 2010 Outcome , ,920 Ridership in Thousand ds The 1995 Forecast was 94% of the 2010 outcome Ridership 20 0 Actual Result TEMS 1995 Forecast * * Bristol Rail Passenger Study: Final Report, May

15 Task 6: Operating Plan and Operating Costs 2010 unit costs have been developed UNIT COST CATEGORIES Equipment Maintenance Energy & Fuel Train & Engine Crews OBS Crews Operator Profit Insurance Liability Sales & Marketing Station Costs Service Administration Track & ROW Maintenance Feeder Bus 14

16 Preliminary Train Times Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Conventional Amfleet Conventional Amfleet Conventional Amfleet Diesel HST Conventional Amfleet Diesel HST Diesel HST Electric HST 79-mph 79-mph 79-mph 90-mph 90-mph 110-mph 110-mph 150-mph Washington to Richmond 2:45 1 2:15 2 2:20 3 2:05 2:20 1:30 1:30 1:05 Richmond to Norfolk 1:48 1:48 5 1:10 0:55 Richmond to Newport News 1:25 1:25 1:13 0:52 Total 4:10 4:03 3:45 3:53 3:33 2:40 2:22 2: :45 current Amtrak time to Main Street, 1:35 to Newport News 2 2:15 current Amtrak time to Staples Mill Road Station only, does not go to Main Street 3 2:20 to Main Street, train operates at 90 mph north of Richmond 4 2:00 proposed schedule objective for HSR electric service 5 1:48 at 79-mph Richmond to Norfolk 15

17 Preliminary Costs per Train Mile ($2010) Results reflect Higher Costs for Dedicated Track, Electrification Maintenance and a dedicated Management structure in the HSR scenarios; offset by economies of scale efficiencies 16

18 Task 7: Capital Costs 2010 capital unit costs have been developed CAPITAL COST CATEGORIES Land and right-of-way Sub-grade, structures and guideway Track Rolling stock Signals and communications Electrification Demolition Stations Maintenance and facilities Highway and railroad crossings Farm and animal crossings Pedestrian crossings Fencing 17

19 Corridor Protection mph Operation Enhanced Protection Warning Signs 2Q Quadrant tgates 110-mph Operation Sealed Corridor 4 Quadrant Warning Long Arm Gates 150-mph hoperation Grade Separated Grade Separated Crossing Closed Crossing 18

20 Rail Section Double Track Electrification $3.1 M/mi Signals, Communication & Dispatch $1.5 M/mi Source: Tampa to Miami Feasibility Study, Florida High Speed Rail Authority, March,

21 Task 8 to 12: Feasibility and Implementation Work has not yet begun on this task awaiting results of the Interactive Analysis 20

22 Thank You 21