TPB CLRP Aspirations Scenario

Transcription

1 TPB CLRP Aspirations Scenario Streamlined Variably Priced Lane Network Sensitivity Test Ron Kirby Erin Morrow Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the Transportation Planning Board October 19,

2 CLRP Aspirations Scenario Developed eeopedunder the TPB Scenario Study Task Force based on financially constrained long range plan (CLRP) adopted by the TPB in 2008 Included strategies explored in previous scenario studies such as the Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study and the Vl Value Pii Pricing Study Scenario should be within reach both fiscally and administratively, while pushing the envelope in terms of improving conditions in relation to a 2030 baseline 2

3 CLRP Aspirations Scenario Results presented to the TPB in September 2010 Performance compared to a 2030 Baseline (2008 CLRP + Round Land Use) for TPB modeled area Land duse Only Sensitivity i i Test Tested CLRP Aspirations land use shifts with adopted CLRP highway h and transit projects 3

4 CLRP Aspirations Scenario Land duse Regional lvpl Supportive Shifts Network Transit Concentrating projected growth in activity centers and existing/planned transit stations Consistent review and refinement by planning directors Address congestion through pricing of 959 new lane miles and 781 existing lane miles Provide alternatives through enhanced transit Use menu of transit options from past scenarios Connect activity centers Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service with 382 new buses and approximately a 20% increase in service hours 4

5 Land Use Shifts Targeted Growth Areas 5

6 Land Use Shifts Summary 6

7 Network of Variably Priced Lanes 7

8 Regional Bus Rapid Transit Network 8

9 Full CLRP Aspirations Scenario Relative to the 2008 CLRP Baseline for 2030: Regional vehicle hours of delay (VHD) decrease by 11.9 percent while vehicle miles of travel (VMT) increase by 3.1 percent Non motorized trips increase by 16.3 percent, transit trips increase by 13.9 percent, and HOV trips more than double Revenues cover about 80 percent of the costs 9

10 Land Use Only Sensitivity Test Relative to the 2008 CLRP Baseline for 2030: Regional vehicle hours of delay (VHD) increase by one percent, while regional vehicle miles traveled (VMT) decrease by 05percent 0.5 VHD and VMT increase in the inner jurisdictions by 6.2 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively Non motorized trips increase by 16.5 percent, transit trips increase by 10.5 percent, and HOV trips decrease by 24percent 2.4 Over 60 percent of new transit trips are intrajurisdictional 10

11 Why a New Sensitivity Test? Respond to TPB concerns about the cost and extent of the variably priced lane network by streamlining the network to: (1) reduce the number of new lane miles and interchanges, and (2) make the scenario financially within reach. 11

12 Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test Used CLRP Aspirations land use and transit Reduced new lane construction by 30% using volume to capacity ratios fromfull full scenario model results, and studies such as the I 270 Multi modal Corridor Study, thewest Side Mobility Study, and the Capital Beltway Study Rd Reduced dinterchange construction by 33% by focusing on connections to Activity Centers 12

13 Comparison to 2030 Baseline 8.0% 6.0% 5.4% 4.4% 4.0% 20% 2.0% 3.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% Full CLRP Aspirations Scenario Land duse Sensitivity Test 4.0% 6.0% Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 11.9% 11.4% 14.0% VMT Regional Vehicle Hours of Delay NOx (average daily) 13

14 Comparison to 2030 Baseline 120.0% 100.0% 108.9% 105.5% 80.0% 0% 60.0% Full CLRP Aspirations Scenario 40.0% Land Use Sensitivity Test 20.0% 16.3% 16.5% 13.9% 16.3% 13.9% 10.5% Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test 0.0% 2.4% 20.0% Bike/Ped Work Trips Total Transit Trips HOV3+ HBW Person Trips 14

15 Projected Changes % 45% 46% 48% 40% 35% 30% 29% 29% 26% 26% 26% Baseline (2008 CLRP) 25% 20% 22% 20% 17% CLRP Aspirations Scenario Land Use Sensitivity Test 15% Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test 10% 5% 3% 4% 0% Population Vehicle Hours of Delay Delay per Peak Auto Commuter 15

16 Projected Changes % 250% 257% 251% 200% Baseline (2008 CLRP) 150% CLRP Aspirations Scenario Land Use Sensitivity Test 100% 50% 41% 64% 64% 64% 36% 55% 50% 55% 71% 67% Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test 0% Bike/Ped Work Trips Total Transit Trips HOV3+ HBW Person Trips 16

17 Home Based Work Mode Share % 5.3% 5.3% 4.7% 2.6% 2.5% 5.4% 5.3% % 1.9% 13.4% 14.7% 14.2% 14.7% % Non motorized Person Trips HOVAuto Person Trips Transit Person Trips 79.3% 74.5% 78.0% 74.6% LOV Auto Person Trips % (2008 CLRP) 2030 Baseline (2008 CLRP) CLRP Aspirations Scenario Land Use Sensitivity Test Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test 17

18 Streamlined VPL Network Sensitivity Test Relative to Full CLRP Aspirations Scenario: Slightly lower reductions in vehicle hours of delay (VHD). Slightly lower increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Sameincreases in non motorized and transit trips. Slightly lower increase in HOV trips. Financially feasible in that toll revenues cover highway and transit costs, both capital and operating. 18

19 Next Steps Version 2.3 Travel Forecasting Model 2040 Horizon Year Benefit Cost Analysis 19