Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force

Transcription

1 Presentation To: HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts Presentation By December 17, 2013 Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

2 COMPASS Forecasting Process Data Requirement Stated Preference Survey Origin- Destination Data Transport Network Trip Matrices Economic Scenarios Base Year Socio- Economics Demand Model Calibration Total Demand Induced Demand Modal Split Base Year Matrix Model System Development Travel Demand Forecasts Forecasting Assumptions Transportation Strategies Travel Demand Model Run Forecast Year Trip Matrices Revenue Analysis Financial Analysis User Benefit Analysis Economic Rent Analysis Evaluation Process 1

3 Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System Number of State Zones Connecticut 5 Delaware 1 District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70 Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9 North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5 Virginia 162 Total Number of Zones 333 PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY WILLIAMSBURG YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS POQUOSON HAMPTON ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH VIRGINIA SUFFOLK BEACH CHESAPEAKE 2

4 Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In WILLIAMSBURG JAMES CITY COUNTY GLOUCESTER COUNTY YORK COUNTY NEWPORT NEWS HAMPTON ROADS ISLE OFWIGHT POQUOSON HAMPTON NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH CHESAPEAKE 3

5 Sources for Socioeconomic Database U.S. Census Bureau Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Richmond Regional Planning District Commission Crater Planning District Commission Virginia Employment Commission Metropolitan Washington County of Governments Baltimore Metropolitan Council Bureau of Economic Analysis Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. 4

6 Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte 5

7 Attributes Included in COMPASS Transportation Networks Time Costs Schedule Public Modes In-Vehicle Time Access/Egress Time Transfer Time Wait Time Fare Access/Egress Costs Parking Cost Service Frequency Auto Travel Time Congestion Delay Operating Costs* Tolls* Parking Costs* * Divided by occupancy 6

8 Sources of Transportation Networks Transportation networks were based on: State and Local Departments of Transportation highway databases National Highway System (NHS) database Amtrak schedules Airline schedules The ten percent sample of airline tickets Greyhound schedules Megabus schedules 7

9 COMPASS Networks The COMPASS Networks include the following networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY): Intercity Highway Passenger Rail Air Intercity Bus 8

10 Sources of Base Year Trip Database The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket Database T-100 Air Market and Segment Database Greyhound and Megabus Schedules Previous travel origin-destination surveys State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland, Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data Amtrak passenger rail ridership data Amtrak station volume data TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey 9

11 Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Person Trips by Mode (million) Travel Market Share by Mode Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: Million 10

12 Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter - $7.15 $14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88 VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13 VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $ $42.73 Commuter - $8.89 $29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66 Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes 11

13 Future Crude Oil Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 12

14 Future Gasoline Price Projections * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 13

15 Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) historical automobile highway energy intensities data 14

16 Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement * EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 15

17 Highway Congestion Estimates Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection 2025 Estimated 2012 Travel Time Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min 16

18 COMPASS Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure Total Demand Public Modes Auto LEVEL 4 Air Surface Modes LEVEL 3 Rail Bus LEVEL 2 Southside/Norfolk Route Peninsula Route LEVEL 1 17

19 Travel Utility Estimation Process Step 1: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus Rail Southside/Norfolk Route: U = α + β Rail South Rail South Rail South GC Rail South Rail Peninsula Route: U = β Rail Peninsula Rail Peninsula GC Rail Peninsula Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus Rail: U = α + β Ln U ) + exp( U Rail Rail Rail [exp( Rail South Rail Peninsula )] Bus: U Bus = β Bus GC Bus Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface and Air Surface: U = α + β Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Surface Surface Surface Rail Bus )] Air: U Air = β Air GC Air Step 4: Compute Utilities for Public and Auto Public: U = α + β Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Public Public Public Surface Air )] Auto: U Auto = β Auto GC Auto Step 5: Compute Total Utility Total: U = Ln[exp( U ) + exp( U Total Auto Public )] Reference: Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R. Lerman, The MIT Press

20 Study Area Travel Market Forecast Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9% 19

21 130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 20

22 220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast- Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips 21

23 130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 22

24 220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast- Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included 23

25 Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Southern Option 1 via Petersburg MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 24

26 Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Northern Option 2 via Hopewell MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 25

27 Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast Option 3 Richmond Direct MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR 26

28 Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 27

29 Sources of HSR Trips- Northern Option 2 via Hopewell MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 28

30 Sources of HSR Trips- Option 3 Richmond Direct MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand 29

31 2025 Annual Station Volumes 130 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 30

32 2025 Annual Station Volumes 220 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 31

33 2025 Annual Segment Loadings 130 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 32

34 2025 Annual Segment Loadings 220 MPH Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct 33

35 Comparison to AECOM 2009 Study Option 1 Time Daily Round Trips 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Trips (million) 2025 Annual Hampton Road- Based Rail Revenue (million $) AECOM Option 1 90 MPH 1: $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming AECOM Option 1 Levels of Service 1: $76.7 Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement by AECOM,

36 Contribution of Service and Market Factors to TEMS Forecast of 2025 Annual Rail Trips 35

37 Apples-to-Apples Comparison to Amtrak NEC Master Plan and Next-Gen HSR (Internal Intercity Trips Only) 2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor MPH 2025 Hampton Roads- Washington Corridor MPH 2030 NEC Master Plan (Constrained Acela) 2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR (220 MPH) 2030 NEC Master Plan 2030 NEC NYC-DC Next-Gen Corridor HSR NYC-DC (Constrained Corridor (220 Acela) MPH) Rail Trip Rate (trips per 10,000 person per day)

38 Appendix 37

39 Stated Preference Survey Deployment TEMS conducted the stated preference survey in order to Update Value of Time (VOT), Value of Frequency (VOF), and Value of Access/Egress (VOA) in the study area Update the modal choice model and total demand model for the passenger rail ridership and revenue forecasts On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey 38

40 Stated Preference Survey Counts Actual Survey Counts Location Field & Online Count (Actual) DMV 1,377 TOTAL of VOT s, VOF s & VOA s for all modes = 3,792 Airport 573 Amtrak 690 Bus 96 TOTAL 2,736 39

41 VOT Calculation Results 40

42 VOF Calculation Results 41

43 VOA Calculation Results 42

44 Thank You 43

45 Presentation To HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Operations Plan and Costs Presentation By December 17, 2013 Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.

46 PHASE 2B WORK PLAN # Tasks 1 Project Management 2 Rail Alternatives 3 Ridership and Revenue - Forecasts Sensitivity Analysis 4 Rail Service Analysis 5 Operating and Capital Costs 6 Financial and Economic Analysis - Financial - Economic 7 Environmental Scan 8 Implementation Plan 9 Report M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 MEETINGS PRESENTATIONS MONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS 1

47 BACKGROUND/CONTEXT FOR THE OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS 2

48 HAMPTON ROADS CORRIDOR AS PART OF SEHSR 3

49 HOWEVER, THERE IS A GAP IN THE MIDDLE OF SEHSR Very Low Population Area 4

50 ... AS A RESULT, IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT HAMPTON ROADS IS MORE FUNCTIONALLY DEPENDENT ON THE NEC THAN ON SEHSR The Hampton Roads Corridor has been divided into three segments for analysis purposes: 1. Washington DC to Richmond 2. Richmond to Newport News - Peninsula 3. Richmond to Norfolk - Southside 5

51 ORIGINALLY, DEVELOPMENT STEPS WERE DEFINED FOR BOTH THE PENINSULA AND SOUTH SIDE ROUTES Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure Station Step 1 I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Shared Track Schedule Enhancement Main Street Newport News (existing) Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Shared Track NS Staples Mill Only Norfolk Step 2 (DEIS Alt 1) DRPT Focus I-64/CSXT 79 mph 3 Shared Track Route 460/ Norfolk Southern mph * 4-6 Shared Track V Line Main Street Newport News (existing) Main Street Bowers Hill Step 3 HRTPO Focus I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track V Line Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Main Street Bowers Hill Step 4 I-64/CSXT 110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 150 mph Dedicated Electric Track V Line Main Street Newport News Downtown/Airport Main Street Bowers Hill *Note: Norfolk Southern (NS) does not permit passenger train maximum authorized speed in excess of 79-mph on any NS track. Where the V-line (former Virginian Railway) has existing freight services, maximum authorized speed for passenger trains will be 79-mph. Along the Algren Kenyon portion of the V-line (over which NS freight rail service has been formally abandoned), passenger rail planners may consider speeds above 79-mph. 6

52 SCHEDULES WERE DEVELOPED FOR THE WHOLE CORRIDOR FROM HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C. Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 79-mph 79-mph 79-mph 90-mph 90-mph 110-mph 110-mph 150-mph Washington to Richmond 2:45 1 2:15 2 2:20 3 2:05 2:20 1:30 1:30 1:05 Richmond to Norfolk 1:48 1:48 5 1:10 0:55 Richmond to Newport News 1:25 1:25 1:13 0:52 Total 4:10 4:03 3:45 3:53 3:33 2:40 2:22 2: :45 current Amtrak time to Main Street, 1:35 to Newport News 2 2:15 current Amtrak time to Staples Mill Road Station only, does not go to Main Street 3 2:20 to Main Street, train operates at 90 mph north of Richmond 4 2:00 proposed schedule objective for HSR electric service 5 1:48 at 79-mph Richmond to Norfolk Source: Exhibit B-6, Progress Report B, page B-13, 2010 study 7

53 BUT, RECENTLY THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON REFINING PLAN FOR THE SOUTHSIDE SERVICE TO NORFOLK Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure Station Step 3 Norfolk-Richmond along Route mph 8-12 Dedicated Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Step 4 Norfolk-Richmond along Route mph Dedicated Electric Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill Focus of the Study 8

54 TRAIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ADVANCED SINCE 2010! Diesel HrST mph Business Model of the MWRRS Speeds up to 130-mph on dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Diesel Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment Because of Alternative Tier 1 Compliance, High Speed 220- mph electric trains can now share freight tracks at speeds under 125-mph the California Blended Operations model has also been adopted by Amtrak for the NEC. There is now only a single generic High Speed electric train and it can operate at 220-mph. The diesel train can operate up to 130-mph. NS policy prohibits shared operations above 79- mph, and a dedicated track could support 130-mph, so it makes sense to evaluate the diesel operation at that speed. Electric HST mph Business Model of California HSR Speeds up to 220-mph on dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Electric Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment 9

55 HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C. RAIL SERVICE ASSUMPTIONS* Washington D.C. to Richmond, 109 miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph): Assumes a new conceptual greenfield due to capacity and geometric limitation of existing ROW 130-mph diesel could easily achieve 1:30 on a greenfield an aggressive tilt train could achieve this time on the existing CSX alignment 220-mph electric could achieve 0:55 based on a high quality greenfield from Lorton to Richmond Richmond to Norfolk, miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph): 13 daily round trips at 130-mph; 1:00 to 1:10 schedule times 22 daily round trips at 220-mph; 0:45 to 0:55 schedule times Richmond to Newport News, 75 miles (Current Time 1:25, 79 mph): 3 daily round trips at 79-mph; 1:25 schedule time OVERALL Cut Norfolk-Washington DC Time in half: 4 hours to 2 hours, 220 mph *Source: Proposed Detailed Operating Schedules follow in this presentation 10

56 SOUTHSIDE NORFOLK SERVICE: ROUTE OPTIONS UNDER DEVELOPMENT 11

57 SOUTHSIDE ROUTE OPTIONS COVER ALL THE BASES Route Options Under Analysis Existing Rail Northern and Southern Greenfields, via Petersburg and Hopewell Richmond Direct Greenfield Speeds Under Analysis 130-mph and 220-mph 12

58 COMMON SEGMENTS TO ALL OPTIONS Richmond Station All High Speed Options (either East Shore or I-295) approach from the East on an elevated Viaduct. Common Segment: Fulton Gas Works to Main Street Station Bowers Hill to Norfolk Harbor Park Common Segment: V Line and NS Main into downtown Norfolk 13

59 ROUTE OPTIONS UNDER ANALYSIS 14

60 ROUTE OPTION 1 VIA PETERSBURG Staples Mills Richmond-Main St. Hopewell-Fort Lee Williamsburg Petersburg-Ettrick Newport News-Airport Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown Bowers Hill Norfolk Suffolk 15

61 ROUTE OPTION 2 - VIA HOPEWELL Staples Mills Richmond-Main St. Hopewell-Fort Lee Williamsburg Petersburg-Ettrick Newport News-Airport Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown Bowers Hill Norfolk Suffolk 16

62 ROUTE OPTION 3 - RICHMOND DIRECT Staples Mills Richmond-Main St. Hopewell-Fort Lee Williamsburg Petersburg-Ettrick Newport News-Airport Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown Bowers Hill Norfolk Suffolk 17

63 SOUTHSIDE NORFOLK SERVICE: OPERATIONS PLAN DEVELOPMENT 18

64 INTERACTIVE INPUT INTERACTIVE ANALYSIS OUTPUT ANALYSIS APPROACH Service Plan Trains LOCOMOTION Scheduling & Operations Operating Costs Methodology for developing an optimized plan Infrastructure TRACKMAN Terminal Facilities Capital Costs Using the data that has already been collected in Phase 2A Market Analysis COMPASS Ridership & Fares Revenues Financial & Economic Feasibility 19

65 RICHMOND-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES Part of All Route Options Station 130-mph Diesel Super Express Express Local Richmond Main St 0:00 0:00 0:00 Ashland 0:12 Fredericksburg 0:40 0:45 Quantico 1:08 Alexandria 1:20 1:25 1:35 Washington Union 1:30 1:35 1:45 Station 220-mph Electric Super Express Express Local Richmond Main St 0:00 0:00 0:00 Ashland 0:10 Fredericksburg 0:25 0:30 Quantico 0:45 Alexandria 0:43 0:48 0:58 Washington Union 0:53 0:58 1:08 These times are consistent with the Step 4 times of 1:30 and 1:05 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B The 1:30 Diesel time can be done on the CSX alignment using aggressive tilt technology. The other times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and Washington DC 20

66 ROUTE OPTION 1: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA PETERSBURG Station 130-mph Diesel Super Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12 Suffolk 0:17 Petersburg 0:53 0:58 Richmond Main St 1:04 1:09 1:14 Washington Union 2:36 2:46 3:01 Station 220-mph Electric Super Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10 Suffolk 0:15 Petersburg 0:40 0:45 Richmond Main St 0:50 0:55 1:00 Washington Union 1:45 1:55 2:10 * Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop Same time for Southern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option 21

67 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields 1:40:36 unimpeded at 220-mph Speed(mph) Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line 50 Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Milepost Richmond/ Petersburg Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 22

68 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields 2:08:25 unimpeded at 130-mph 140 Speed(mph) Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line Richmond/ Petersburg Milepost Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 23

69 ROUTE OPTION 2: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA HOPEWELL 130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric Station Super Express Express Local Station Super Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12 Suffolk 0:17 Hopewell 0:50 0:53 Richmond Main St 1:04 1:09 1:14 Washington Union 2:36 2:46 3:01 Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10 Suffolk 0:15 Hopewell 0:37 0:42 Richmond Main St 0:50 0:55 1:00 Washington Union 1:45 1:55 2:10 * Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop Same time for Northern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option 24

70 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I Northern Greenfields 1:40:30 unimpeded at 220-mph Speed(mph) Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line 50 Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Milepost Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 25

71 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I Northern Greenfields 2:07:19 unimpeded at 130-mph 140 Speed(mph) Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell Milepost Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 26

72 ROUTE OPTION 3: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA RICHMOND DIRECT 130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric Station Super Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12 Suffolk 0:17 Richmond Main St 0:59 0:59 1:04 Washington Union 2:31 2:36 2:51 Station Super Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00 Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10 Suffolk 0:15 Richmond Main St 0:43 0:43 0:48 Washington Union 1:38 1:43 1:58 * Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop These times are consistent with the Step 3 and 4 times of 2:40 and 2:00 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B Times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and Washington DC 27

73 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields 1:31:10 unimpeded at 220-mph Speed(mph) Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line 50 Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Milepost Richmond Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 28

74 LOCOMOTION RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields 1:59:57 unimpeded at 130-mph 140 Speed(mph) Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton Richmond Milepost Maximum Allowable Speed Maximum Attainable Speed 29

75 SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE RESULTS Stations Super Express Express Local Norfolk Bowers Hill Suffolk Petersburg/Hopewell* Richmond Main St Ashland Fredericksburg Quantico Alexandria Washington Union 130-mph Total Trains 4 trains 5 trains 4 trains 130-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 2:36 2:46 3: mph Time Richmond Direct 2:31 2:36 2: mph Total Trains 6 trains 12 trains 4 trains 220-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 1:45 1:55 2: mph Time Richmond Direct 1:38 1:43 1:58 * Stations Bypassed by Richmond Direct 30

76 SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE COMPARISON The performance of the 130-mph and 220-mph options both depend on the characteristics of the option that is ultimately developed between Richmond and Washington D.C. The 130-mph diesel would likely operate between 1:05 and 1:30 The 220-mph electric would likely operate between 0:55 and 1:30 The schedule times of all four route options are very close. The results of this more detailed assessment support the findings of the earlier 2010 study, Progress Report B. Petersburg and Hopewell route options have the same times. These route options are 5 minutes slower than Richmond Direct, plus an additional 5 minutes if they add a stop. This time difference is not enough to drive major differences in ridership between the options. The route selection will likely be made based on cost, environmental factors and route synergies. 31

77 OPERATING COSTS 32

78 OPERATING COST CATEGORIES Drivers Train Miles Cost Categories Equipment Maintenance Energy and Fuel Train and Engine Crews Onboard Service Crews Passenger Miles Insurance Liability Ridership and Revenue Sales and Marketing Fixed Cost Service Administration Track and ROW Maintenance Station Costs Costs were developed for four rail technologies 79-mph convention diesel 130-mph High Speed diesel 150-mph and 220-mph High Speed electric 33

79 SUMMARY OF OPERATING COSTS Unit Cost Driver Greenfield 130-mph diesel Greenfield 220-mph electric Equipment Maintenance Train-Miles $12.70 $14.08 Train Crew* Train-Miles $4.92 $4.60 Fuel or Energy* Train-Miles $8.71 $2.80 On Board Services (Labor)* Train-Miles $2.56 $2.41 On Board Services (Goods Sold) * % of OBS 50% 50% Revenue Insurance Passenger-Mile Track (Shared) Train-Miles over N/A N/A Shared Track Track and Electrification (Dedicated) Dedicated Track Miles $27,924 plus Cyclic Capital $54,783 plus Cyclic Capital Operations and Dispatch* Train-Miles Stations* Staffed and $6.45 mill $6.45 mill Unstaffed Stations Administration and Management (Fixed)* Fixed $14.35 mill $14.35 mill Administration and Management Train-Miles $1.84 $1.84 (Call Center: Variable Train-Miles)* Administration and Management Riders (Call Center: Variable Riders) Credit Card and Travel Agency Commissions* Percent of 2.8% 2.8% Revenue Operator Profit Markup Selected (*) Costs 10% 10% *This cost is included in the operator profit 10 percent markup 34

80 FIRST CUT CONSOLIDATED OPERATING RESULTS Financial 2025(mill. 2012$) Southern Option 1 - Via Petersburg Northern Option 2 - Via Hopewell Southern Option 1A - Greenfield Southern Option 1B - Norfolk Southern Northern Option 2A - Greenfield Northern Option 2B - Norfolk Southern Option 3 - Richmond Direct 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph REVENUE Ticket Revenue $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ OBS Revenue 8% $15.58 $26.48 $15.58 $26.48 $15.27 $25.80 $15.27 $25.80 $16.21 $26.74 Total Revenue $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ COSTS Train Crew $10.83 $15.67 $10.83 $15.67 $10.71 $15.26 $10.71 $15.26 $11.10 $15.69 OBS $13.42 $21.45 $13.42 $21.45 $13.21 $20.90 $13.21 $20.90 $13.88 $21.59 Equipment $27.96 $47.95 $27.96 $47.95 $27.65 $46.72 $27.65 $46.72 $28.65 $48.03 Fuel $19.57 $8.92 $19.57 $8.92 $19.35 $8.69 $19.35 $8.69 $20.06 $8.94 Track $11.95 $23.45 $11.95 $23.45 $11.78 $23.12 $11.78 $23.12 $11.56 $22.68 Insurance $7.40 $11.44 $7.40 $11.44 $7.32 $11.15 $7.32 $11.15 $7.58 $11.46 Call Ctr Variable $2.65 $3.82 $2.65 $3.82 $2.62 $3.71 $2.62 $3.71 $2.77 $3.94 T-Agent and CC Comm $5.45 $9.27 $5.45 $9.27 $5.35 $9.03 $5.35 $9.03 $5.67 $9.36 Stations $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $5.91 $5.91 Admin and Mgt $18.40 $20.62 $18.40 $20.62 $18.36 $20.46 $18.36 $20.46 $18.50 $20.63 Operation & Dispactch $1.09 $1.70 $1.09 $1.70 $1.07 $1.67 $1.07 $1.67 $1.05 $1.64 Operator Profit 10% selected items $7.79 $8.79 $7.79 $8.79 $7.71 $8.62 $7.71 $8.62 $7.89 $8.77 Total Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Operating Surplus $77.35 $ $77.35 $ $74.60 $ $74.60 $ $84.16 $ Operating Ratio

81 THANK YOU 36