Health Concerns Major Driver of Vehicle Emissions Regulations PM 2.5 Remains The Most Serious Air Pollution Problem; Ozone Also Serious Concern Very

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1 Global Trends in Motor Vehicle Pollution Control A 2013 Update November 5, 2013 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Founding Chairman Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation 1

2 Key Points Health Concerns Major Driver of Vehicle Emissions Regulations PM 2.5 Remains The Most Serious Air Pollution Problem; Ozone Also Serious Concern Very Effective Vehicle Controls Now Available But Require Very Low Sulfur Fuels Technologies Continue to Advance - California Pushing The Technology Envelope Fuel Economy/CO2 Regulations Spreading 2

3 Health effects of fine particles Breathing fine particles (PM 2.5 ) causes adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems (PM 2.5 ) Ambient (outdoor) PM 2.5 exposures are linked to Premature death Heart attacks Strokes Hospital and emergency room visits Acute and chronic bronchitis Asthma-related effects PM 2.5 may also be associated with infant mortality, low birth weight, and cancer 3

4 Ambient PM 2.5 Now Among The Leading Global Risks For Mortality And Lost Years Of Healthy Life In 2010 AB BCDEBF B F B AB

5 Vehicle Pollution is an Increasingly Important Challenge

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8 Automobiles and the Environment Global Environment Urban Environment Emissions CO2, BC VOC,NOx,PM Alternative Fuels Energy Security Convenience Recycle Economy Safety

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13 Widespread Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in Urban Areas Transport Pollution is Ubiquitous

14 PM10 Exposures in Hanoi micrograms/cubic meter Mobikes Walking In Cars In Buses WHO Guideline 50 Commuters Exposure to Particulate Matter and Carbon Monoxide in Hanoi, Vietnam: A Pilot Study East West Center Working Paper No. 64, Nov

15 New: June WHO Classifies Diesel Engine Exhaust As Group 1 Known Carcinogen 15

16 Transport Problems Not Limited To Road Vehicles

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18 Looking Ahead: 15 Of The World s Top 20 Ports Are In Asia Source: American Association of Port Authorities, 2009 Provided by Rich Kassel 18

19 Elements of a Comprehensive Vehicle Pollution Control Strategy B B Clean Vehicle Technologies B F AA A Clean Fuels Transportation & Land use Planning Appropriate Maintenance

20 Treat Vehicles and Fuels as a Single System Evap. HC HC, CO NOx, Particulates Vehicle technology can bring large emission reductions. Fuels must be suitable for the vehicles to perform well.

21 The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re- Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and Underfloor Applications Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability Integrated HC adsorption functions Mounting materials with improved durability High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates Insulation schemes for heat management F FB F AA AB F B AB B B B B B B

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23 Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles U.S. and Europe Light-Duty Vehicle Emission Standards mg/km Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PM X Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 U.S. Tier 2, Bin /2009 Euro 5+ (2011) and 6 include 6 X /km particle number limit Euro 6 PM mass limit uses revised PMP mass protocol ARB SULEV

24 Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine Transient Cycle Emission Standards g/kwh Diesel NOx Diesel PM X Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S U.S (max NOx) U.S (std.) Euro VI includes particle number limit

25 F F A F F A F AB A BCDCE A FF A A F F A D F A Diesel 15 ppm ABCD ABC ABC A B C A BC A EF EF C C A BCDC EF C EF C D C B B B Diesel 50/10 ppm BCDC

26 Even Starting To Be Phased in on Off Road Vehicles Require PM and NOx aftertreatment Require PM aftertreatment Slide 26

27 Why Are Fuels Important? Fuel Constituents Directly Affect Emissions Fuel Changes Can Immediately Impact on Emissions/Air Quality Fuel Composition Can Enable/Disable Pollution Control Technology

28 Why Low Sulfur Fuel? Reducing sulfur lowers emissions from existing vehicles SO 2 from all vehicles PM from diesel vehicles CO, HC, NOx, toxics from all catalyst-equipped vehicles Enables advanced technologies & tight standards for new vehicles Enables retrofit technologies to clean up existing vehicles 28

29 A B C DBE FB BF B CC C ABCB D EF B DF CF D AF B C DD B A C F F DF FA F B F CF D BF DB F BDCFA 29

30 Slide 30 Not including Transition Refineries

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34 Results of the British Columbia I/M Program Audit CO (g/km) Before Repair After Repair 0 Pre Post 1987

35 We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

36 Remember 2011! Severe Drought Followed By Extreme Flooding 36

37 Source; WMO GHG Bulletin Number 8 37

38 Low Sulfur Fuel Impacts On Greenhouse Gases Improves Performance of PM Trap Equipped Vehicles Shorter Regeneration Less Frequent Regeneration Enhances Prospects For Lean NOx Controls Common Rail DI Diesel GDI N 2 O & CH 4 Minimized From TWC Cars

39 Policy Progress Is Occurring on CO2 Grams CO 2 per Kilomete er normalized to NEDC Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study S. Korea 2015: 153 Mexico 2016: 173 China 2020: 117 Japan 2020: 105 EU 2020: A B CDEB CEF E BA D A E E EA E B CDEB E EC EC E E ECD E EA CE A ECE E D B B E EA E D B EC E EA US-LDV Canada-LDV EU Japan China S. Korea Australia Mexico Canada 2025:109 US 2025:109

40 BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM) Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass, and is a major component of soot Mainly found in the fine particle (PM 2.5 ) fraction, which is most strongly linked to adverse health effects 40

41 Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2 41

42 Mobile Sources Are Responsible For ~25% Of Global Black Carbon Emissions Source: Bond et al., GBC van der Werf, updates for IPCC AR5

43 Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal Candidates for Black Carbon Control Very high ratio of Black Carbon to Organic Carbon Ubiquitous Control Technology Exists Substantial Health Co- Benefits

44 A Critical Technology: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) A B CC DCEF E A EA B E A D B B *Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO *Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) 44

45 California Continues to Push the Technology Envelope LEV III Particulate Matter Standards

46 Evaporative Emissions Extend zero-evaporative emission requirements currently in place for PZEVs to the entire light-duty vehicle fleet by MY 2022 Extend Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery (ORVR) requirements to all complete vehicles less than 14,000 pounds GVWR

47 Meeting Longer Term GHG Goals Moving away from gasoline/diesel necessary H2 and electricity most likely replacement But must be produced with low carbon intensity Market for BEVs and FCEVs needs to start this decade To allow time for consumer acceptance and replacement of existing petroleum-fueled vehicles FCEVs likely essential if fleet has larger vehicles 47

48 40,000,000 Path to 2050: California s On-Road Vehicle Fleet LDV On-Road Ve ehicles 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 Conventional Vehicles Hybrids Plug-In Hybrids Hydrogen Fuel Cell & Battery Electric 79% Year 48

49 ZEVs for Sale EC A B B B F BC B BF F B F BC

50 Benefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions Shindell et al. (2011) estimate adopting European vehicle standards in India, China, and other industrializing and developing countries would lead to: 120, ,000 avoided premature deaths in 2030 (valued at $ trillion in 2006 USD) Mitigation of 0.2 C (+0.14 C/ C) Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during million metric tons of avoided ozone related yield losses of major food crops Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, M. Walsh, S.C. Anenberg, R. Van Dingenen, N.Z. Muller, J. Austin, D. Koch, G. Milly Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle emissions standards, Nature Climate Change, 1:59-66.

51 Progress Toward Clean Air Pollution Down While Growth Continues 51

52 Thank You

53 Where Do We Go From Here? Developing a Clean Vehicles and Fuels Roadmap Regional Harmonization 53

54 Straw Man For Discussion Fuels 50 PPM Sulfur by 2015/16 10 PPM Sulfur by 2019 Vehicle Standards Euro 4/IV by 2015/16 Euro 6/VI by 2020