PAVEMENT QUALITY FORECASTING

Transcription

1 FORECASTING Using dtims to forecast pavement conditions in the O January 15

2 Introduction With the addition of performance measures to the long-range transportation planning process, the need to forecast pavement conditions in greater Des Moines has become necessary as infrastructure deteriorates and funding opportunities become limited. The Des Moines Area Metropolitan lanning Organization (O) purchased a pavement forecasting software to determine the funding needed to reach a target of maintaining existing conditions in the region. This report first summarizes the funding need for the entire O planning area, then goes into further detail on how each member city is performing based on their current maintenance budgets. This analysis used 13 avement Condition Index data and Deighton Total Infrastructure Management System to forecast the quality of the region s pavement out to the year 23. avement Condition Index Each year, the Institute for Transportation at Iowa State University (InTrans), collects pavement condition data for non- DOT roads in Iowa. As part of this data collection, InTrans records the avement Condition Index (CI), which gives users the level of quality they should expect when driving on the roadways. The CI ranges from zero to one hundred, with one hundred being the best possible score a roadway can receive. A breakdown of CI classifications is as follows: (81-) (61-) (41-) (21-) (-) Deighton Total Infrastructure Management System Deighton Total Infrastructure Management System (dtims TM ) is a pavement forecasting software that offers a set of tools for implementing custom databases and models to meet an agency s pavement and asset management needs. dtims TM allows the user to create budget scenarios to forecast their effect on pavement conditions into the future, helping jurisdictions determine the funding need to maintain pavement conditions at a certain level. Various budget scenarios were ran at the regional level, as well as the local level, to determine the amount of funding needed to reach a regional target. dtims TM uses various pavement treatment types that are applied to roads for each year the analysis is run for. O staff chose general pavement treatment types that could represent as best as it can what is currently being done by member jurisdictions. These treatment types are as follows: Concrete avement Restoration Mill and Overlay for HMA and COM 3 Overlay for HMA and COM Replacement for CC Crack Sealing avement Treatment Types COM HMA CC Composite Hot Mix Asphalt ortland Cement Concrete age 2

3 REGIONAL avement Quality percent of roads in the O are classified as being in poor or very 18poor condition 1 for the region: *Numbers above represent all roads, including DOT roads AVEGE CONDITION (CI) BY BUDGET SCENARIO % of All Roads TARGET: MAINTAIN CURRENT $M $M $M $13.5M $ million is the amount of funding needed each year to maintain current pavement conditions in the region Currently, the region spends about $ million 2 Data Sources: Iowa avement Management rogram, avement Management Information System 2. Street Financial Reports, Iowa DOT January 15

4 58 ST NE 14TH ST 16 ST L DR AH SH EL D 13 Iowa Local Road Assessment NB NE 118 AVE NE 112 ST NE 1 ST NE 96 ST 14TH AVE 1ST AVE S N NE 8 ST NE ST NE 112 ST NE 64 ST NE 88 ST 1ST AVE S NE ST NE 91 ST NE 72 ST NE 64 ST ST 72 ST 68 ST S 5TH ST IOWA 5 «41-5 D 61 - HWY R57 CH RID G 165T H L R E S COT CLARKE ST 81 - CLEVELAND ST DAKOTA ST 43RD AVE 33RD AVE 43 RD L IOWA 28 CENTER AVE S W N 17TH AVE 34TH AVE SW E 56TH ST NE 56 ST NE 56TH ST SW ST S HWY G14 VE HA 45TH AVE avement Condition (CI) S 1ST ST N 1ST ST E BORDER ST T TH AVE 1ST AVE N M E 46TH ST M INDIANOLA AVE 36TH ST 65 93RD AVE DAKOTA ST VA ND AL IA 34TH ST 6TH ST TH ST 14TH ST S UNION ST E 46TH ST E 38TH ST E 42ND ST WILLIAMS ST E 33RD ST E 29TH ST E TH ST E 18TH ST 1ST ST US R TH AVE NORTH AVE 163 O lanning Area A CC E SW E CO LINE RD 113TH AVE ET SU NS 1TH ST E 38 AV E 64TH AVE 64 AVE 63 DR HWY G14 NE 38 AVE NE 27 AVE «6 AVE HW Y CUMMING AVE NE ST HU BB EL L AV E NE 29 ST DIXON ST DELAWARE AVE 2ND AVE 6TH AVE ST 3R D 9TH ST 7TH ST SW 9TH ST 5TH ST SW 14TH ST FLEUR DR IDGE VE A 22ND ST 19TH ST M O IOWA 28 NE 29 ST NE 14TH ST NE 22 ST NE 3 ST E 14TH ST TH ST 31ST ST 35TH ST 42ND ST OLK BLVD CORNELL ST 12TH ST BEAVER AVE 48TH ST 41ST ST 55TH ST 56TH ST Y TE VE 8TH ST TH AVE VINTAGE AVE HWY G14 RD NE TH ST I 35 NE 29 ST N 14TH ST MERLE HAY RD 63RD ST O 72 ST 72ND ST TH ST 72ND ST 4TH ST 8TH ST 5TH ST GR AN D AV E S 22ND ST S 42ND ST M S TH ST E INE AVE BRONZE ST CHERRY KWY CUMMING AVE CUMMING NE MORGAN DR NE 29 ST S ANKENY BLVD SW ST ATE ST 16 ST 26 ST 86TH ST 86TH ST 22ND ST 19TH ST 35TH ST S TH ST S TH ST ROOD MLK KWY ST TH ST TH ST 4TH ST AS TH EST TH ST 35TH ST/VALLEY WEST DR 128TH ST 142ND ST JORDAN CREEK KWY 68TH ST 88TH ST X AVE SW E ARMY OST RD SW BORDER ST NE 46 AVE DR S 88TH ST TH ST 9TH ST 142ND ST 142ND ST TH ST 128TH ST 156TH ST 156TH ST 98TH ST DELAWARE AVE 37 ST N JAMES ST S JAMES ST W AVE ALICES RD ROOD ALICES RD VERMILLION CT ARKR ON AL NE 54 AVE DR TABOR RD DIAG D DR OO KW OA ON AV «6TH ST 69 E ARMY OST RD TH ST NE 27 AVE US 5TH ST 5 65 CO LINE RD 9TH ST E WATROUS AVE S NECA AVE COUNTY LINE RD W M NE M M NE 58 AVE 8TH ST AVE EASTER LAKE DR SW 64 ST CO LINE RD ADAMS ST VANDALIA RD NE AVE 32ND ST NE 62 AVE 8TH ST SW NE AM NE M SW IOWA 5 M CO LINE RDRO COUNTY LINE RD SCOTT AVE S LEASANT HILL BLVD NE R R O OS ED M ARMY OST RD E MCKINLEY AVE SW ORTER AVE M ARMY OST RD DEAN AVE VE E H ARTFO R D A E WATROUS AVE NE 23 AVE E UNIVERSITY AVE SCOTT AVE MCKINLEY AVE W K NE A VE NE 82 AVE NE 78 AVE 24TH ST E EVERGREEN LE Y D BLV E GND AVE E ARK AVE WATROUS AVE N TO E AV LL E DOUGLAS AVE VE LA GUTHRIE AVE S EA M E BB HU DR ST MAFFITT LAKE RD O RD CK IN TH ARMY OST RD NS 235 MAURY ST ARK AVE CK M M RD «ST E BROADWAY AVE K IC ER ED FR EL BB HU SCOTT AVE R 28 NE SAGE R H ST ST LNUT E WAURT AVE E CO M ADVENTURELAND DR SS BA E 6T H ST BE AS O TH BELL AVE TH ST E 15 TH ST E 4T LN MTA H ST G KWY AG FL SW 7T W 14TH ST SW E 3RD ST D G OR GE AL ON AG DI 5TH AVE ST HIGH ST ST LOCU RY ST CHER JR KWY W MLK ILROAD AVE FULLER RD E HULL AVE E 14 A W TH ST KWY Y 17TH INGERSOLL AVE VINE ST E EUCLID AVE 6 KE O A 15TH ST SW NE 54 AVE NE 46 AVE ND ST E 22 E 21ST ST FOREST AVE COTTAGE GR KINGMAN BLVD OV EA VE QU M 65 SW E AURO AVE E WASHINGTON AVE U SA 235 TH ST NE BROADWAY AVE RD OR SAYL FNKLIN AVE WY SW NE BERWICK DR R K WARRIOR LN R U AVE D KJ TH ST S EUCLID AVE ML 6TH ST D R RD TA GS BEAVER R D DOUGLAS AVE UNIVERSITY AVE ORN IN MADISON AVE ST UTE AVE O M 6 DR E NE 54 AVE 35 DS RD LAKE MAFFITT LO W DR R TR UE SW DR ED OS O R ST MEREDITH BLV D NE AVE 54 AVE 32ND ST SW NE 62 AVE NE 58 AVE OO R VER CCOON RI UN IVE RS ITY 5 KWY AVE 2ND ST NE 15TH ST CORO TE NE 66 AVE LN 65 JOHNSTON DR 7 3RD ST E AVE O W ER ASHWORTH RD N BL VD S3 MILLS CIVIC I 235 C EC LN LEADO AVE T TH S ST NE TH 335TH ST S K WY HICKMAN RD SW 66 AVE URBANDALE AVE NE O LO M DR M AURO AVE DR M NE N SW AN SO WES TOWN KWY 3TH E AL SW I NE 322ND RD KWY 6 UNIVERSITY AVE RO UNIVERSITY AVE T S LA DO U G O TT SU ND TH ST DR HS 112T HW OR TH DOUGLAS KWY U R BA HICKMAN AVE AS MEREDITH DR 42ND AVE 54 AVE S W LUM R A DR DR AV ER N GNT ST B NE IO N W US 6 LUM DR E 2ND ST NE 78 AVE NE 78TH AVE 62ND AVE 54TH AVE 37TH ST 2TH ST N W S 19TH ST SW 19TH ST H FI S I DR TON AVE OLABOR RD W SW ER E 1ST ST 1ST ST MEREDITH DR SW OLABOR RD 4 N AVE ROOD TH AVE MEREDITH DR «69 SW «NE 86 AVE MAGAZINE RD NE 2 9 ST AVE 141 2TH ST D SW IRVINEDALE DR 82 NE 94 AVE NE 116 ST E 1ST ST SW ORDNANCE R NE 72 ST W 1ST ST NE 2 AVE NE 29 ST 94 AVE NE 18TH ST NE DELAWARE AVE 18TH ST STATE ST 16TH ST R ED NE 1 AVE NE 36TH ST N ANKENY BLVD L AK 98 AVE IRVINEDALE DR RV IL LO ABBIE DR LE DR 114 ST SA Y 121 ST 36TH ST 1 AVE ASH DR VE 2A 44 ST 11 GNT ST S N 7 ST W BRIDGE RD 6 AVE NE 56 ST 118 AVE NE 46 ST E NORTHSIDE DR N ANKENY BLVD W 115 AVE NE 29 ST 35 ST D S T AY 3R DW NE 126 AVE R OA Miles Date: 11/25/14

5 LOCAL Conditions Using current funding levels, just 3 cities maintain their pavement conditions under the regional target through 23. Bondurant Urbandale olk City ERCENT OOR OR WOR WITH CURRENT FUNDING LEVELS, 23 Cumming Waukee Mitchellville Ankeny Windsor Heights Regional Target West Des Moines Altoona Grimes Norwalk leasant Hill Carlisle Johnston Des Moines Clive All non-dot roads were used when forecasting future conditions Windsor Heights Des Moines Grimes Carlisle leasant Hill Johnston Norwalk Waukee Bondurant Clive olk City Altoona Urbandale Ankeny West Des Moines AVEGE CI WITH CURRENT FUNDING LEVELS Cumming Mitchellville age 5

6 LOCAL Conditions 13 (ACTUAL) CI TING: ERCENT OF TOTAL MILES Altoona Ankeny Bondurant Carlisle Clive Cumming Des Moines 23 (FORECAST) Grimes Johnston Mitchellville Current funding levels were used to forecast 23 conditions Norwalk leasant Hill olk City Urbandale Waukee West Des Moines Windsor Heights or or age 6

7 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE Areas ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE AREAS AVEGE CI Environmental Justice Area 43 Non-Environmental Justice Area 53 OOR OR WOR ROADS (%) Environmental Justice Area 44 Non-Environmental Justice Area 26 About 14% of local roads in the region lie within EJ areas. All non-dot roads were used for Environmental Justice comparisons ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE AREA Concentrated area of traditionally underserved populations. Groups used to define EJ areas include: Limeted English roficiency (LE) Non-White opulation ersons in overty Carless Households Single Heads of Households with Children ersons Over 65 ersons with a Disability The O receives federal funding and may not discriminate against anyone on the basis of race, color, or national origin, according to Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of age 7

8 Local Investments To maintain the regional average of 18 percent of roads in poor or worse condition, each jurisdiction will need to invest in their local system to meet the regional goal. To determine if cities are currently on the right track to do so, dtims TM was used to run scenarios based on current annual maintenance budgets. Street Financial Reports (SFR) were used to determine annual maintenance budgets for each member, based on a 6-year average for the amount spent on maintenance needs. Results from those scenarios determined which cities have a need to increase their maintenance budgets in order to reach the regional goal. The Annual Maintenance chart shows the additional funds needed for those cities that are not currently reaching the regional goal. City Reports The remaining pages of this report go into further detail on each member city of the O. Included on each page is a map of the 13 Local Road Assessment, the annual maintenance budget used for the analysis, total miles of roadway measured for pavement quality, and multiple charts forecasting future pavement conditions within each city. The avement Quality and Average Condition (CI) charts provide a detailed breakdown of the city s future conditions if they were to continue spending the current amount on maintenance needs. ANNUAL MAINTENANCE City Current Annual Funding Total Annual Funding Needed Additional Funding Needed Altoona $696,6 $1,, $3,894 Ankeny $1,544,627 $5,, $3,455,373 Bondurant $256,328 $, $143,672 Carlisle $343,5 $4, $6,4 Clive $1,662,341 $2,, $837,659 Cumming $27,451 $175, $147,549 Des Moines $15,551,818 $16,, $948,182 Grimes $913,3 - - Johnston $1,218,221 $3,, $1,781,779 Mitchellville $58,568 $275, $216,432 Norwalk $679,457 $1,, $6,543 leasant Hill $579, olk City $253,22 $, $146,978 Urbandale $2,42,375 $4,, $1,957,625 Waukee $559,356 $1,, $9,644 West Des Moines $2,237,219 $4,, $1,762,781 Windsor Heights $498, Total $29,122,885 $41,, $11,877,115 *Cities with a - currently achieve the regional average with their maintenance budgets. Therefore, no additional funding is needed. age 8

9 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF ALTOONA Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $696,6 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 9

10 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF ANKENY Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $1,544,627 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age

11 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF BONDUNT Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $256,328 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 11

12 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF CARLISLE Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $343,5 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 12

13 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF CLIVE Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $1,662,341 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 13

14 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF CUMMING Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $27,451 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 14

15 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF DES MOINES Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $15,551,818 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 15

16 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF GRIMES Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $913,3 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 16

17 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF JOHNSTON Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $1,218,221 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 17

18 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF MITCHELLVILLE Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $58,568 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 18

19 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF NORWALK Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $679,457 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 19

20 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF LEASANT HILL Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $579,915 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age

21 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF OLK CITY Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $253,22 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 21

22 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF URBANDALE Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $2,42,375 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 22

23 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF WAUKEE Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $559,356 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 23

24 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF WEST DES MOINES Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $2,237,219 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 24

25 13 LOCAL ROAD ASSSMENT CITY OF WINDSOR HEIGHTS Annual Maintenance (6-Year Average): $498,948 Miles of Road Measured: ercent of Roads in or Worse Condition AVEGE CONDITION (CI) age 25

26 TABLES BY JURISDICTION The following tables break down pavement conditions for each member community by year and condition using current maintenance budgets. Numbers in the chart represent the percent of all roads within the community. ALTOONA ($696,6) Year ANKENY ($1,544,627) Year BONDUNT ($256,328) Year CARLISLE ($343,5) Year CLIVE ($1,662,341) Year CUMMING ($27,451) Year DES MOINES ($15,551,818) Year GRIMES ($913,3) Year JOHNSTON ($1,218,221) Year age 26

27 TABLES BY JURISDICTION (CONT D) MITCHELLVILLE ($58,568) Year NORWALK ($679,457) Year LEASANT HILL ($579,915) Year OLK CITY ($253,22) Year URBANDALE ($2,42,375) Year WAUKEE ($559,356) Year WEST DES MOINES ($2,237,219) Year WINDSOR HEIGHTS ($498,948) Year age 27