World Ethanol World Ethanol Change, Consolidation and Competition. 2 F.O Licht Agribusiness intelligence
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1 World Ethanol 2016 Change, Consolidation and Competition 2 F.O Licht Agribusiness intelligence
2 2017 will see corn s share to reach new record high US elections aside - Biofuel policy no longer is a headline topic What has become of cellulosic ethanol? Cheap gasoline proves to be mixed blessing Industry is prepared to take tough decisions 3 F.O Licht Agribusiness intelligence Tighter Sugar Supplies Sugar Corn 50 Sugar Corn 18 Stocks-to-use (%) F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
3 150 Sugar Prices Move Higher Index; Jan 2014 = Corn Sugar 5 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Sugar strength prompts stagnation in fuel ethanol production 100,000 1,000 m 3 1,000 m3 80,000 60,000 40, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
4 Non-fuel markets stable 20,000 15,000 1,000 m3 10,000 5, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence World trade moves sideways 12,000 9,000 1,000 m3 6,000 3, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Europe Africa Americas Asia/Pacific
5 Cellulosic Ethanol 2016 Europe 130 mln litres operational (?) Canada 48 mln litres operational United States 340 mln litres operational (?), Brazil 120 mln litres operational (?) China 151 mln litres operational India 6 mln litres operational Japan 1 mln litres operational 9 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence The Short Term Outlook 10 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
6 U.S.A.: Ethanol Balance (1,000 cubic metres) Opening stocks 3,293 3,443 3,063 Output Fuel ethanol 57,900 57,700 56,051 Non-fuel ethanol 1,550 1,500 1,480 TOTAL 59,450 59,200 57,531 Imports , Consumption Fuel ethanol 54,400 54,300 52,750 Non-fuel ethanol 1,750 1,700 1,700 TOTAL 56,150 56,000 54,450 Exports 4,500 4,400 3,797 Ending stocks 3,243 3,293 3, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence 100 United States - D6 RIN Prices US Cents per gallons of fuel ethanol F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
7 Brazil: Ethanol Balance (1,000 cubic metres) Apr/Mar 17/18 16/17 15/16 Opening stocks 1,318 1,323 2,762 Output Fuel ethanol 24,500 25,800 28,362 Non-fuel ethanol 1,700 1,800 2,134 TOTAL 26,200 27,600 30,496 Imports 1,250 1, Consumption Fuel ethanol 24,150 25,300 28,300 Non-fuel ethanol 1,700 1,650 1,800 TOTAL 25,850 26,950 30,100 Exports 1,550 1,695 2,250 Ending stocks 1,368 1,318 1, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence 130 Sugar beats Ethanol Index; Nov 2015= Ethanol 70 Sugar F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
8 EU: Ethanol Balance (1,000 cubic metres) Opening stocks 1,846 2,065 2,046 Output Fuel ethanol 5,352 4,722 5,055 Non-fuel ethanol 2,216 2,124 2,217 TOTAL 7,568 6,846 7,272 Imports Consumption Fuel ethanol 5,373 5,175 5,267 Non-fuel ethanol 2,550 2,450 2,450 TOTAL 7,923 7,625 7,717 Exports Ending stocks 1,991 1,846 2, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence 4 EU Y/Y Change in Gasoline Consumption in %, 2016 vs Germany UK Italy France Spain Netherlands Poland Sweden 16 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
9 Asia: Ethanol Balance (1000 cubic metres) Opening stocks 1,518 1,349 1,245 Output 14,887 14,782 14,472 Fuel 5,827 5,512 5,092 Non-fuel 9,060 9,270 9,380 Imports 3,555 3,539 2,921 Consumption 18,003 17,538 16,608 Fuel 7,335 6,910 6,263 Non-fuel 10,668 10,628 10,345 Exports Ending stocks 1,394 1,518 1, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence 700 Short-term price outlook $ per cbm EU F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
10 Short-term price outlook $ per cbm EU USA F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Short-term price outlook $ per cbm EU USA Brazil F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
11 Short-term price outlook $ per cbm EU USA Brazil Asia Grade B F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Change, Consolidation, Competition 22 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
12 USA Top 10 Ethanol Producers By capacity; 1,000 cubic metres Big River Cargill Marquis Pacific/Aventine Flint Hills Valero Green Plains/Abengoa POET ADM Up for sale 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Abengoa plants sold fast at around 30% of original price tag ADM is unlikely to accept such a discount More plants may be offered in the months ahead as pressure on margins continues Most active buyers in the past were Pacific, Flint Hills, Green Plains 24 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
13 Brazil Top 10 Ethanol Producers By capacity; 1,000 cubic metres Cofco Agri Zilor USACUCAR BP Bunge Guarani/Vertente São Martinho/Nova Fronteira Biosev Odebrecht Still up for sale? Petrobras share is up for sale Petrobras share is up for sale Still seeking partners? Still seeking partial sell off? Raizen ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Diversified, well capitalised companies to benefit from sugar bull market Others will continue to be crushed by debt Demand for ethanol on the decline as economy contracts and tax perks expire New players enter industry as consolidation gathers pace 26 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
14 EU Top Ethanol Players By capacity; 1,000 cubic metres 1. CropEnergies 2. Tereos 3. Abengoa 4. Cristal Union Offline Up for sale 5. Alcogroup Incl. Rotterdam plant 6. Pannonia 7. Vivergo 8. Verbio 9. Agrana 10. Akwawit-Brasco , F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Abengoa s European assets are in the process of being sold One new plant will start producing in Hungary Abolition of sugar/isoglucose quotas in 2017 will reshuffle the feedstock landscape Will the dominance of diesel be broken? 28 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
15 Diesel to lose market share in EU 100% Diesel Gasoline EV Plug-in hybrids (gasoline) hybrids (gasoline) 28% 80% market share 60% 40% 18% 20% 20% 25% Source: Alix Partners 0% 9% F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence Outlook 30 F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
16 Commodity cycle is affecting ethanol producers in different ways (sugar vs. starch) Global consolidation process continues unabated New players are entering the scene Competitiveness of the starch-based industry will rise Ethanol s technical properties and rising GHG savings will secure and build market share 31 F.O Licht Agribusiness intelligence F.O. Licht Am Mühlengraben 22 D Ratzeburg Germany T E W +49 (0) info@fo-licht.com F.O. Licht Agribusiness intelligence
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