Chinese Steel Market Analysis and Outlook

Transcription

1 Chinese Steel Market Analysis and Outlook Wu Jingjing May. 6-7, 21 Paris

2 Crude Steel Production Year-on-year Growth Rate Crude Steel Production Year-on-year Growth Rate 中国钢铁工业协会 Global Crude Steel Production from January 29 to March Crude Steel Production Year-on-year Growth Rate Jan. -24 Feb. -22 March April May June -16 July Aug. Global (Excluding China) Crude Steel Production from January 29 to March 21 Jan Feb. Crude Steel Production March April -5.5 Sep May June July Aug. Sep. -.6 Oct. Year-on-year Growth Rate Nov Oct Nov. Dec. Dec. Jan Jan. Feb Feb. March 25.7 March Global crude steel output in 29 was billion tons, down 8.47% yoy.

3 Comprehensive Price Index Price Index of Flat Steel 中国钢铁工业协会 Output of crudesteel Comprehensive Price Index of Steel on Global Market from January-December 29 to February 21 Price Index of Flat Steel on Global Market from January- December 29 to February Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

4 Steel Production Output in Q1 21: Crude steel million mt, up 24.52% yoy ; Pig iron million mt, up 21.67% yoy ; Steel products million mt,up 28.55% yoy ;(including double accounting) Output in 29 : Crude steel 568 million mt,up 13.5 % yoy ; Pig iron 544 million mt,up % yoy ; Steel products 692 million mt,up 18.5 % yoy ; (including double accounting)

5 Increase ratio: % 中国钢铁工业协会 Breakedown of Steel Products Output in Q1 21 and 29 unit:million mt Q1 21 Yoy% 29 Yoy% Steel products* Plate Hot rolled sheet&coil Cold rolled sheet &coil Coated seamless pipe Rebar Wire rod *: including double accounting crude steel output from January 29 to February 21 5 crude steel output:1 tons increse ratio:% Jan. 29 Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 21 Feb. -1

6 Overall stock of society: 1,tons Composite price index 中国钢铁工业协会 In Q1 21, the profit of CISA s members (77) was billion RMB.(Q1 29 is billion RMB) Performance of Steel Market In 29, profits of CISA s members (68) was 55.4 billion RMB, down 31.43% yoy Stock of society for 5 category of steel products in 2 cities from December 28 to February The composite price index for steel in domestic market from January 29 to February Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 9 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

7 Exports and Imports In Q1 21 steel products exports: 8.71 mmt, up % yoy; slab exports :.1 mmt, up 48% yoy steel products imports: 4.11 mmt, up 27.23% yoy; slab imports :.16 mmt, % yoy In 29 steel products exports: 24.6 mmt, % yoy ; slab exports :.4 mmt, % yoy; steel products imports: mmt, up 14.59% yoy; slab imports : 4.59 mmt, up % yoy

8 Crude steel import: 1, tons YoY growth rate: % Crude steel export: 1, tons YoY growth rate: % 中国钢铁工业协会 Steel export declined but import increased in 29. China exported 24.6 million tons of steel and 432 tons of steel billet in 29. It is equivalent to an export of million tons of crude steel, decreasing 38.3 million tons and down 59.2% yoy. China imported million tons of steel and 4.59 million tons of steel billet in 29. It is equivalent to million tons of crude steel, up by 4.49% and 6.73 million tons yoy. Export of crude steel (rolled steel and steel billet) from January 29 to January 21 and its year-on-year growth rate Crude steel export: 1, tons YoY growth rate: % Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Import of crude steel (rolled steel and steel billet) from January 29 to January 21 and its year-on-year growth rate Crude steel import: 1, tons YoY growth rate: % Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan

9 Crude steel: 1, ton Percentage: % 中国钢铁工业协会 China's crude steel (rolled steel/steel billet (ingot)equivalent) export total during 2-29 & percentage in yearly production Crude steel: 1, ton Percentage: % In 29, China's crude steel import (rolled steel/steel billet equivalent) totaled million tons, accounting for 4.62% of all the 5.67 billion tons of crude steel produced that year; In 29, China's import of steel totaled billion US dollars, while the export totaled billion US dollars. China's trade deficit of iron and steel products totaled 62.,12billion US dollars in 29, up 34% yoy

10 Breakedown of Steel Products exports in 29 Unit: 1, tons Variety ± % Percentage in 29 % Percentage in 28 % YoY ± Percentage points Total Rod & wire Angle bar Plate Tube Steel for railway use Others

11 Breakedown of Steel Products exports in 29 Unit: 1, tons Countries &regions ±% Percentage in 29 % Percentage in 28 % ± % Total export South Korea ASEAN Middle East Other Asian countries EU 27 countries Africa South America US

12 Breakedown of Steel Products imports in 29 Variety ±% Percentag e in 29 Percentag e in 28 Total Unit: 1, tons Rod and wire Angle collar Plate steel Ordinary hotrolled sheet Ordinary coldrolled sheet times Tube steel Steel for railway use times others ±%

13 Countries and regions Breakedown of Steel Products imports in ±% Percentage in 29 % Percentage in 28% Total imports Unit: 1, tons Japan South Korea Taiwan Russia ±% EU 27 countries Kazakhaztan Ukraine US

14 Breakedown of Steel Products exports in Q1 21 unit:mmt Breakedown of Steel Products imports in Q1 21 unit:mmt Q1 21 Q1 29 yoy±% share on total % Q1 21 Q1 29 yoy±% share on total % total total flat flat pipe and tube wire rod wire rod pipe and tube section section railway railway others others

15 Breakedown of Steel Products exports in Q1 21 unit:mmt Breakedown of Steel Products imports in Q1 21 unit:mmt Q1 21 Q1 29 yoy±% share on total % Q1 21 Q1 29 yoy±% share on total % total Korea Asean other Asian Middle east EU USA total Japan Korea Taiwan province EU other Asian Rusia Hazakhstan

16 Conclusion and Outlook The world economy will recover in 21 and still faces a host of challenges. macro economic control in China: M & A among steel enterprises; to eliminate backward production capacity; tighten market access control major contradictions and problems of China s steel industry : high level of inventory; decreased exports and increased imports; rising prices of raw material. In 21, crude steel output: around 6-62 mmt ; crude steel consumption : around 6 mmt

17 亿元 /1Million RMB Feb-6 Jun-6 Oct-6 Feb-7 Jun-7 Oct-7 Feb-8 Jun-8 Oct-8 Feb-9 Jun-9 Oct-9 Feb-1 Jun-1 Oct-1 % 中国钢铁工业协会 新项目计划总投资增长 Growth of New Projects Investment 12 1 large number of projects were initiated in with massive investment planned. In 4 21, these projects need to be continued, 2 which shall greatly boost the demand of steel -2 products in the market Source:NBS,MRI, Mysteel database 年度贷款余额与钢材价格关系 Relation between Loan and Steel Price 12, 1, 新增贷款 Newly Added Loan MYSPIC pro-active fiscal policy and moderately ease 8, monetary policies shall be implemented in 6, 4, 2, to ensure sufficient liquidity on domestic market and plays an important role in boosting economic development. Source:NBS,Mysteel database

18 Long term effect: promotion of urbanization Status: At the end of 29, the urbanization rate is 46.6%. Target: China s urbanization rate in 21 will reach 47% and will reach 6.57% in 22, which achieves the level of moderately developed countries.

19 The rural residents transfer to cities to simulate the increasing on the demand of steel used for house construction. The share of steel used for house construction is 18% of the lsteel consumption. 中国钢铁工业协会

20 F 千吨 /kt Long term effect: investment and export 中国钢铁工业协会 For a long time, investment is the main engine for driving the development of China s economy. 8, 6, 4, 199 年以来中国钢铁进出口情况 ( 千吨 ) China's Steel Trade Balance since 199(in 'tonnes,steel billet and f inished steel combined) huge investment scale can not continuou and has risk. 2, the export of steel product shall face greater difficulties -2, -4, -6, -8, 坯材合计进口 (Import=fnished+semis) 坯材合计出口 (Export=finished+semis) 坯材合计净进口 (Net Import=import-export)

21 Long term effect: consumption 自行车 彩电 汽车 手表 冰箱 住房 缝纫机 第一次消费升级 2 世纪 6 年代至 8 年代 洗衣机 中国居民三次消费升级 第二次消费升级 医疗保健 的三次消费升级 时间 2 世纪 9 年代 21 实际初 初至 9 年代末至今 代表商品 末自行车 彩色电视 汽车 手表 电冰箱 住房 缝纫机 洗衣机 通讯产品 目标 温饱型 由温饱向小康发展享受 消费 百元级 千元级 万元级 几型 十万元级 持续时间 3 多年 1 年左右数十年 In the future China will transfer from a big production country to a big consumption country. At present, the consumption is stepping towards the third upgrading: real estate, automobile and medical care.

22 Long term effect: promotion of steel technology 中国钢铁工业协会 Oil crisis Low-speed growth period of steel and highspeed growth period of technology Climat e crisis the low carbon economy will surely drive the big breakthrough and promotion of the steel technology. After the oil crisis in 1974, steel entered the low-speed growth period; however, the steel technology entered the highspeed growth period Reduce the steel consumption strength by using advanced technologies of the downstream industry: to replace 5% of the rebars which strengths are below 335 MPa by above 4MPa, 5 million tons rebars can be saved.

23 Thanks